If China becomes a developed country, what will it mean to the world, especially the United States?

Currently, among the developed countries in the world, only two countries have a population of over 100 million.

What would it mean if China became a developed country?

In 2020, South Korea’s per capita GDP reached US$31,700. Therefore, in July 2021, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development officially recognized South Korea as a developed country.

Note that this is the first time that the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has changed from a developing country to a developed country since its establishment in 1964.

So how far is China from developed countries?

In the next 10 years, every step China takes will have a profound impact on the global situation.

Because once China becomes a developed country, the entire world will be rewritten, and the global rules led by the United States will undergo earth-shaking changes.

What is a developed country?

Up to now, there are only 37 recognized developed countries in the world:

United States, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Malta, Iceland, Slovenia, Austria, Ireland, Cyprus, Israel, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, Poland, Hungary, San Marino, Lithuania, Latvia, Luxembourg.

Among developed countries, there are only two major countries with a population of over 100 million.

One is the United States, with a population of 320 million;

One is Japan, with a population of 126 million.

In fact, Japan is already considered a big country in the eyes of most countries in the world.

Because there are only 13 countries in the world with a population of more than 100 million.

There are only 10 countries that can exceed the population size of Japan!

The other 36 developed countries are all small and medium-sized countries, and most of them are small countries. For example, those with a population of one million are:

Finland 5.3 million, Norway 4.72 million, Denmark 5.82 million, Lithuania 2.79 million…

There are also many pocket-sized countries with a population of only 100,000:

For example, Luxembourg has a population of 600,000, and one Shenzhen city can equal the national population of 20 to 30 Luxembourg;

For example, the population of Iceland is 340,000, and one Shanghai city can equal the national population of 80 Iceland;

There are also smaller ones, such as: San Marino has a population of 30,000, and the State Grid of China has 900,000 employees, which is equivalent to 30 San Marinos…

Why is the Western world afraid of China?

The world’s 37 developed countries now have a combined population of only 860 million.

And China has a population of 1.4 billion!

If China becomes a developed country, what impact will it have on the earth?

Most countries, both developed and poor, are of little importance to the planet.

But China is different.

When China becomes a developed country, will other countries remain the same?

The standard for developed countries is that the per capita economic aggregate reaches about US$30,000.

If China reaches this standard, its total economic volume will reach 42 trillion US dollars.

The global economic aggregate in 2020 is US$99.67 trillion, then China will account for 42% of the global total, almost half!

Of course, you would say that China’s GDP is growing, and so is global GDP.

However, it is obvious that the growth of the global economic aggregate is very slow.

Because there are only 8.7 billion people in the world, the market is not infinite.

If you want the total economic volume to grow, you must have industries to support it.

The market of any industry is limited, and the industrial markets of countries around the world tend to wax and wane.

For example, if China’s shipbuilding industry rises, South Korea’s shipbuilding industry will inevitably decline.

Because the global demand for ships cannot grow infinitely, but is relatively stable.

For example, with the rise of China’s automobile industry, Japan’s automobile exports will inevitably shrink, because the global demand for automobiles is not unlimited.

In fact, in the past 10 years, the GDP growth rate of most countries, especially Western countries, has been very slow or stagnant. In 2020, even European and American countries will collectively regress.

The total global GDP was US$75 trillion in 2012 and will be nearly US$100 trillion in 2022, an increase of US$25 trillion.

Among them, the United States increased from 16 trillion US dollars to 25 trillion US dollars, an increase of 9 trillion US dollars, and a growth rate of 56%;

China has grown from 8.5 trillion US dollars to 18.5 trillion US dollars, an increase of 10 trillion US dollars, and a growth rate of 117%.

This means that in the past ten years, China and the United States combined have increased their GDP by US$19 trillion, contributing 76% of global growth.

The combined GDP of more than 200 other countries only increased by US$6 trillion in 10 years.

In other words, excluding China and the United States, the global economic growth rate in ten years is only 9.6%, an average of 0.96% per year.

The rapid development of China and the United States is due to the fact that in the past 10 years, they have jointly taken away the dividends of mobile Internet and artificial intelligence.

Europe, Japan and South Korea have made almost no achievements in these new industries, not even a well-known Internet company.

At the same time, Chinese manufacturing is sweeping the world, and American finance is dominating the world.

If China’s total GDP accounts for 30% or 40% of the world’s total, will the US dollar still be an international currency?

By then, as the world’s absolute largest economy, will China still use US dollars to calculate the GDP of countries around the world?

At this time, the United States’ containment of China will be meaningless, because without the Chinese market, all capital in Europe and the United States will be inherently insufficient, and no one dares to bear the loss of losing such an important market.

China only needs to achieve an average annual economic growth rate of about 5% to reach an economic aggregate of US$30 trillion in 2032 and US$40 trillion in 2038.

Therefore, in order to maintain its hegemonic position, the United States must contain China.

The United States accounts for about 5% of the world’s population, consumes 1/3 of the world’s paper, 1/4 of the oil, 23% of the coal, 27% of the aluminum and 19% of the copper, and is the country that generates the most domestic waste in the world.

But most of the United States is a virtual economy, using dollars to buy the world’s wealth.

If China becomes a developed country, the United States will naturally not be able to live with such extravagant and wasteful life.

Because resources do not grow infinitely, the market is not infinite.

It is understandable to some extent that the United States does not want China to become a developed country.

The so-called developed and underdeveloped are all contrasted.

Developed countries must be at the top of the global pyramid.

The total population of developed countries is now 860 million, which is 10% of the world’s population.

Once China becomes a developed country, China alone will account for 17% of the world.

Is it possible that the population of developed countries could quadruple as a result?

So, can the original 860 million “developed” people continue to live a developed life?

It’s like a class. You can say that the top 10% are the top students, but you can’t say that the top 30% are the top students.

Then it’s either a mess, or the top students are devalued.

Therefore, it is understandable that the United States feels tremendous pressure from China.

Another question is, if China wants to create an economic aggregate of nearly 40 trillion yuan, what industries will it rely on to support it?

Many small countries only need one or two industries.

The smaller the country, the easier it is to become a developed country.

These small countries often only need one or two industries, or even one or two enterprises, to become a developed country.

They don’t even need to be a technological power; it’s enough to be an agricultural country or a resource country.

For example, in Luxembourg, the largest company is ArcelorMittal Steel Group, with annual sales of US$79 billion.

Luxembourg has a population of 600,000. With this steel company alone, Luxembourg can become a developed country.

Another example is Iceland. Tourism generates US$4.2 billion a year, fishery generates US$2.1 billion a year, and there are a total of 370,000 people in Iceland. With these two industries, Iceland’s per capita GDP can reach US$17,000, and you can do anything else. Catering services can make it a developed country.

Another example is Finland, which ranks first in the world in forest coverage, with a per capita average of 4.2 hectares. Relying solely on the forest industry, the output value created in 2022 will be US$26 billion.

Do you think US$26 billion is not much?

Finland has a total population of 5.3 million, and the forest industry can contribute nearly 5,000 US dollars per capita GDP to Finland.

Another example is Australia. In 2022, iron ore exports will reach US$167 billion.

Australia has a total population of 25 million, which is equivalent to the export of iron ore alone. Even if Australia stops all other industries, it can contribute US$6,600 to each person.

But for China, with a population of 1.4 billion, it obviously needs the support of countless industries to become a developed country.

New energy, home appliances, shipbuilding, construction, communications, automobiles… these are not enough.

Chips, large aircraft, engines, industrial aircraft… these require comprehensive breakthroughs.

Or to put it simply, China needs at least:

30 technology companies at the level of Apple or Airbus, otherwise China will not be able to obtain high profits;

30 luxury goods companies like Hermès or Chanel, otherwise China can only do OEM;

At the same time, China must have global pricing power, rather than whatever it buys is expensive and whatever it sells is cheap;

Only when at least the above three conditions are met can China become a developed country.

So, how to achieve these conditions?

In fact, for normal development, 5 years is enough.

As a representative of Chinese technology, Huawei has sales of 891.4 billion yuan in 2020.

According to this trend, it will only take 6 years for Huawei to surpass Apple.

However, the United States immediately contained and suppressed Huawei, putting Huawei under tremendous pressure.

Apple can rely on the global supply chain, while Huawei can only rely on China’s supply chain.

As for luxury goods companies, let alone that.

If you put a Nike trademark in the United States, you can earn 100 yuan; if you make a pair of shoes in China, you can earn 3 yuan…

There is not a single luxury goods company in China now.

With a share of the global luxury goods market of nearly US$2 trillion, plus a share of the global cultural industry market of US$16 trillion such as the entertainment, culture, and film industries, China can earn almost no or pitifully little money…

Next, let’s talk about the international voice. China has no pricing power on the price of bulk commodities. It means that whatever China buys is more expensive.

Australia’s iron ore peaked at 1,042 yuan/ton, and the cost was only 220 yuan/ton. By digging a ton of iron ore, Australia earned 800 yuan;

China gets Australian iron ore to make steel. One ton of iron ore can make 0.4 tons of steel. The cost is 1,152 yuan. The sales price is 1,192 yuan. China earns 40 yuan;

In other words, Australia can earn 800 yuan by casually digging in the mines, while China can build steel plants and smelting centers and refine the steel through a long process and earn 40 yuan…

Why can developed countries make money so easily without getting tired?

Because their gross profit from selling chips and patents is 47%, while China’s gross profit from selling mobile phones is 10%, and their earnings are nearly 5 times that of China;

They sell their LOGO, and China sells their labor force. Their income is 30 times that of China;

They have the right to speak and pricing. In the same industry chain, sales profits are 20 times that of China;

In other words, for the same labor, even with much less labor, they can earn 4 to 30 times as much as China.

So under such circumstances, it is impossible for China to become a developed country.

On the other hand, if China wants to become a developed country, can the existing global wealth distribution system not be reconstructed?