I don't think you quite get what overshoot is. We're already deeply into overshoot and what that means, in every species on the planet that it happens to, is that 90-95٪ plus of that species die off. Our technology and fossil fuels have permitted us to so far exceed the carrying capacity of the planet that once they're no longer available, probably because of a cascading failure in the global economy, rather than through physical depletion, then the vast majority of our species will no longer be capable of carrying on. Look up "The reindeer of St. Matthew Island" The sort of shark fin graph of their population as they boomed and collapsed is very probably way the graph of our population will look like. Everyone thinks so lineraly. This is not a linear situation. Joe
Summary
The author argues that humanity is in a state of overshoot, where our population has exceeded the Earth's carrying capacity due to technology and fossil fuels, and a significant die-off is likely once these supports fail.
Abstract
The author of the text expresses a dire warning about the concept of overshoot, emphasizing that humanity has surpassed the Earth's sustainable limits. The use of technology and fossil fuels has allowed our population to grow beyond the planet's carrying capacity. The author predicts a grim future where the removal of these supports, possibly due to economic collapse rather than resource depletion, will lead to a massive die-off, with 90-95% of the human population at risk. The author cites the example of the reindeer of St. Matthew Island, whose population graph mirrors the expected trajectory of human population growth and decline. The author criticizes the linear thinking that fails to grasp the non-linear nature of the ecological crisis we face.
Opinions
- The author believes that the current human population is unsustainable without technological and fossil fuel aids.
- They suggest that the end of these aids will not be due to physical resources running out but rather a collapse of the global economy.
- The author expects a die-off of human population on a scale similar to that seen in other species that have experienced overshoot.
- The reindeer of St. Matthew Island is used as a historical analogy for human population dynamics, implying a boom-and-bust cycle.
- The author emphasizes that the situation is non-linear, implying that conventional, linear problem-solving approaches are inadequate for addressing the ecological crisis.
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