How We’d Fix It: Minnesota Timberwolves

Weren’t the Baby Wolves supposed to be better than this?

Even after beating the Denver Nuggets Sunday night, the Minnesota Timberwolves are just 16–28. It’s been a disappointing year for the Wolves, especially on the defensive end where they’re still one of the worst teams in the league. Minnesota has a knack for getting out to a nice lead and blowing it in the final minutes time and again.

Watching the Timberwolves this season has been an exercise in both hope and futility. The kids simply do not know how to win yet.

The optimist would point out that Minnesota is only 2.5 games out of the 8-seed and just beat the Clippers, Thunder, and Rockets the last two weeks. They also play nine of their next twelve at home and have the best point differential outside of the West’s locked-in top seven.

Of course the realist would counter with “Sure, but then what?”

Playoff experience sounds great until you remember that’s probably just four embarrassing losses to the Warriors and the 15th pick in a loaded draft. Because, close as they are to a playoff berth, Minnesota is also only two games from having the worst record in the entire West. They’re two wins away from being in line for the 2nd pick in the draft at the season’s midpoint.

Minnesota just isn’t good yet, and while the kids will certainly get better as they grow under Tom Thibodeau, they are miles away from being a real contender.

So what’s wrong with the Timberwolves, and how can it be fixed?

There’s an expectations problem

As it turns out, winning in the NBA is hard — really hard.

Many pundits had the Timberwolves making the playoffs this year after going just 29–53 last year with mostly the same roster. Noted NBA analyst Tim Bontemps boldly predicted Minnesota would win 50 games. But how many playoff teams can you think of in NBA history where the three key players were all age 21?

You named the Oklahoma City Thunder, didn’t you?

And that’s an even bigger part of the expectations problem. Yes, the 2010 Thunder made the playoffs at 50–32 while their three stars were 21 and younger. But the Timberwolves are not the Thunder, because no one else in NBA history was the Thunder.

Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden were a perfect storm. They were all top-five picks and all future MVP candidates — the likely top three if the season ended today. And though the 2017 Warriors have made us forget, it’s unbelievably rare for three MVP-caliber players to play together.

Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, and Zach LaVine are not KD, Russ, and Harden. I’m sorry you had to find out this way. Truthfully, Minnesota will be ecstatic if even one of their trio ever ends up as good as anyone in that OKC trio. Towns may well be in that conversation at some point, but he’s not yet, and Wiggins and LaVine aren’t even in the same ballpark right now.

Durant, Russ, and Harden are generational talents. Having them all together was a once-in-an-ever coincidence, and it’s supremely unfair to hoist those expectations on this Timberwolves roster. Never mind the fact that, while it’s fun to dream about what might have been, you didn’t have to figure out how to share one ball with three ball-dominant players who probably would’ve had to be split up eventually anyway. Never mind that Oklahoma City also had Serge Ibaka, a great player that Minnesota would probably be lucky to see Wiggins or LaVine end up as good as, in most scenarios.

These just aren’t the same teams. There was only one Oklahoma City. Winning is hard, especially for 21-year-olds. Players don’t learn to play defense overnight.

This is going to take some time to work — if it ever does.

The three stars aren’t as good as you think — yet

Towns has been excellent offensively, averaging 22 points, 12 boards, and 3 assists. He’s been even better the last several weeks, a deserving All-Star candidate. But Towns has also been sorely lacking defensively, especially compared to expectations coming out of a strong performance at Kentucky, and he’s not a top-10 player yet.

Wiggins and LaVine are insanely athletic and incredibly talented, but both have a long way to go. LaVine has improved a ton to become an excellent shooter, but he needs to take smarter shots and draw more free throws, and his awareness on both ends of the court is sorely lacking.

Wiggins has a first step and a spin move to die for, but his three-point shot has regressed badly after a hot start (28% since December 1 after a 41% mirage start) and he hasn’t shown any real improvement over his NBA career. Take a look at his advanced stats from the past three years via Basketball Reference:

There’s very little progression there. Wiggins right now is a volume scorer without a three-point shot and a player that under-contributes across the rest of the box score — the exact sort of player the NBA is finally beginning to learn the proper reduced value of in 2017.

Mind you, none of the above mentioned the biggest problem with LaVine and Wiggins: their defense, or complete and utter lack thereof. It’s pretty tough to win in 2017 with two terrible wing defenders that lack energy and awareness. The Wolves average the highest distance between defender and shooter on threes in the NBA. That’s not system or set-up; it’s just flat out effort. The kids need to learn to play hard for 48 minutes on both ends of the court.

Now let’s be fair — these three players are all still just 21 years old. There is plenty of room for growth, and the athleticism of all three players should allow each to become at least competent defensively and on the boards as they develop. But they’re not great right now.

Towns is a star in the making, but LaVine is Lou Williams as a starter and Wiggins is a less-efficient Rudy Gay.

And there’s a bigger problem. It’s not necessarily clear that these three can or should play together. LaVine and Wiggins are both ball-dominant wings that need their share of touches. That takes away from the more efficient Towns touches.

Maybe one of the three needs to come off the bench, or at least lead the bench unit like Klay Thompson? That’s a tough pill to swallow if you think you’re a star. There’s a reason James Harden wanted out, after all.

The supporting cast doesn’t fit

Ricky Rubio and Gorgui Dieng are okay as NBA players. They are nice. They are replacement-level starters, perhaps good enough to be the final starter on the right good team — but this team isn’t good yet and it’s probably not the right one either.

You already know about Rubio, but he’s better than you think. He’s a magician as a passer and consistently makes his teammates better on offense, and he’s above average defensively. Still just 26 years old, he’s hitting his prime now and on a nice 3-year $42 million contract. All of that is good.

But he can’t shoot, like, at all. He sports a career 31% three-point percentage and 39% from inside the arc, even worse. Defenses barely respect Rubio, so they can send an extra man to double Wiggins or Towns as necessary. You can succeed in the NBA without being a sharpshooter, but that team would need to put Rubio in position to use his superior playmaking skills and hopefully have good shooting around him. That’s not this team.

Rubio has been a professional for a decade now since he started his career so early in Spain, so this is pretty much who he is. He can be a useful NBA player and even a starter, but this probably isn’t the team for it.

Behind Rubio are a pair of young point guards on cheap rookie deals, Kris Dunn and Tyus Jones. Dunn has only played half a season but has been a bit of a disappointment so far. He has great ball-hawking skills and should become a top defender in time, though he’s a better individual defender than team at this point. But offensively, he’s shooting worse than Rubio this year and his awareness has been very poor.

You know how you hear about the game slowing down for players? That hasn’t happened yet for Dunn. That’s okay since he’s a rookie but he’s also 22, older than Minnesota’s star trio, so he has less time-upside. It’s hard not to look at Minnesota and wonder what they’d look like if they had the shooting of Buddy Hield or Jamal Murray, the guards taken with the next two picks in the 2016 draft, but that’s water under the bridge now. Most rookie point guards struggle. Dunn is super-athletic and could be the defender Thibodeau covets but he doesn’t look like a great fit offensively right now.

Tyus Jones may actually be the best fit as a starter. He’s been terrific when he actually gets to play, which is happening only about 10 minutes a game. He’s a good passer and, more importantly, a good shooter at 44% from downtown this season. Could he be the right starter to space the floor for the Wolves? It might be time for Minnesota to find out, but it’ll never happen with both Rubio and Dunn around.

Then there is the other starting spot, the second big man spot. Gorgui Dieng is… okay. He’s always been useful offensively because he’s got a nice mid-range jumper and spaces the floor, so that fits well next to Towns. Unfortunately that’s also his only real plus skill. He hasn’t extended his range beyond the arc at all yet, and he’s not great as a playmaker or a defender. He’s also 27 already so, like Rubio, this is probably what Dieng is. He’s a nice player but it feels like he’d be best as a third big man in the rotation.

Minnesota just signed Dieng to a fat four years and $64 million contract extension that kicks in after the year. And that brings us to a final big problem.

Money is going to be a problem, and soon

You might think everyone should just relax and wait for the kids to develop and everything will be okay, and that makes sense in theory, but not in a salary-cap league where players all get gradually more expensive.

Right now Minnesota has the fifth lowest payroll in the NBA, and that includes $20 million combined to Kevin Garnett and Nikola Pekovic, both of whom should be off the books by the end of the year. But all of that cap room is because of Minnesota’s many rookie deal contracts and those contracts are going to be up for extension soon — expensive extensions.

Both Wiggins and LaVine are eligible to negotiate extensions this summer. Is Andrew Wiggins a max player? Is LaVine? If both sign max extensions, they’ll kick in during the summer of 2018, with Towns’s certain max extension kicking in the year after, and that will be that with the cap room.

With three guys that may each claim over $22 million a year, every other dollar is key, especially after 2018. This summer may well be the last time Minnesota has any real cap room of significance, so that means the clock is ticking. The Timberwolves have to decide, and soon, on the direction of the team. If Rubio and Dieng stick around and the big three sign max extensions (or close to it), then this is pretty much their team.

Minnesota basically has through the end of this summer to decide on its real core going forward. It might be too soon to decide on if Wiggins and/or LaVine should be part of that long-term core, but it has become increasingly clear that Rubio should not. And at his upcoming extension price tag, Dieng may not fit either.

Remember how Minnesota still has a shot at the 8-seed this year and the 15th pick in the draft? They’re also not far from another top-five pick, and that means one last chance to add a great young player on a cheap contract they’re going to desperately need soon enough. This is a draft loaded with point guards and right now Minnesota has three that may or may not fit.

That’s another reason it makes sense to trade Rubio now. His value will drop dramatically with the influx of point guard talent and so many free agent point guards this summer. A trade soon gives Minnesota half a season to evaluate whether Dunn or Jones may be the right fit.

Minnesota has a ton of great young talent, so all is not lost. Still the team can and should be better.

So how do we fix it? Click here for Part II…