How To Make Effective Decisions In Uncertain Times

Rules that will help you weigh the situation and make a rational decision

The world is now on standby. But even in these conditions, it is necessary to make decisions and make plans — both personal and larger. How to do this in order to minimize the risk of error? Here are the rules to follow.

You are not objective, so keep this in mind

The first rule of thumb when assessing a situation under uncertainty is to eliminate the uncertainty that your own brain introduces into your decision.

American psychologist Daniel Kahneman writes in his book “Think Slowly… Decide Fast” that our behavior is regulated by two systems: conscious and automatic. With a lack of information, the brain switches to automatic mode, modeling a picture of reality based on experience. Sometimes this works, but often it turns into errors that distort the perspective. Here are five mental distortions that can influence decision-making.

Confirmation bias — You unconsciously seek and remember only the information that confirms your opinion or desire.
The availability heuristic — A certain scenario of the development of events seems more likely to you only because now you remember several similar cases from your life.
False binding — You look at the problem through the prism of any fresh impressions, even if they have nothing to do with the problem: you read the disturbing news about the environment — your economic forecast has become more pessimistic.
The illusion of zero risk — Too much focus on the main threat prevents you from seeing other risks that may be more serious.
Blind spot effect — The basic cognitive distortion is that we find it difficult to notice that we are distorting reality in perception. For this, “obvious facts” are not enough. Conscious efforts are needed.

It is unlikely that you will be able to realize all your own cognitive distortions, but at least keep in mind that they are already useful.

Keep calm in any situation

Anxiety only exacerbates our cognitive distortions. Most likely, it will not be possible to get rid of it in conditions of uncertainty, and its suppression can cause even more harm (this is not necessary). However, you can change your attitude towards it.

In 2010, researchers at Harvard University found that if you tell students that their excitement is actually helpful and motivating, they do better on a test. It is through this mechanism, positive reframing, that cognitive behavioral therapy works.

The work techniques are described in detail in the book by psychotherapist David Burns “Feeling Good: The New Mood Therapy”. Here is a short guide.

Write down the situation or problem. You can add information about the emotions you are experiencing.
Write down the automatic thoughts that this problem causes. Most likely, they will have cognitive distortions that increase anxiety. For example, this thinking is “all or nothing” (a typical example is a phrase “this is a complete failure”), overgeneralization (“I am always wrong”), devaluation of the positive (“the compliment was out of politeness”), hasty conclusions, a negative filter, and so on.
Write down a rational response to automatic thoughts. The list of distortions that CBT combats is quite long, but they are similar: they make you think the worst and seem logical only at first glance. It is not necessary to know them all (although this will speed up introspection), common sense will help to recognize unconstructive thoughts anyway.

Gather as much information as you can

Try to collect as much information about the problem or task as possible. It is worth using the tactics of modern companies to solve personal issues: the development of a new product always involves making decisions in the face of uncertainty.

Companies are doing a bunch of tests and interviews with experts and potential customers. Collecting data about the state of the environment is also a skill. And the more thoroughly we pump it, the higher the likelihood that we will get something worthwhile.

How to put it into practice?

Make two lists. In the first place, add potential experts. They may be your friends who are now in the same situation as you; those who have been in a similar situation in the past and anyone who may have theoretical knowledge in the area of interest to you. The second list is the questions you need to answer in order to make a decision. It is important to write them down: when we formulate our thoughts on paper, it helps us to understand them better, which in itself is already useful for making decisions. Try to formulate clearly and concisely — this way your experts will be able to quickly understand what you want to know from them, which means they will answer more specifically.
Gather as much information as possible from open sources. Study the official websites of companies and organizations that are somehow related to the decision that you need to make. Look for articles and news on these topics. Finally, scour the feedback forums for recommendations.

But don’t trust just searching on the Internet — live communication can give much more.

Make some decision

Our brain is a super-powerful machine that constantly analyzes the signals coming through the senses and predicts the course of events. We perform most actions automatically since the brain operates with patterns already familiar to it, but as soon as something unusual happens (you reached out for a cup, and it turned out to be hot), an error signal turns on.

The lack of a solution is a constantly burning error signal in the orbitofrontal cortex of the brain: it diverts attention that you could spend, for example, on achieving your goals.

That is why the lack of certainty is so hard to endure for both you and those who depend on your decision (relatives, colleagues, subordinates). And that is why sometimes it is better to make at least some decision than to torture yourself and others with the unknown.

Final Thoughts

A number of the above practices already have a significant impact on organizations, whereas others are contrary to what has been taught in academia that everything is knowable, that we need information in order to act, and that we need to weigh all of the options before reaching a decision, and that we should never return to a previous decision for fear of losing face.

The key to coping with uncertainty more effectively lies not in just updating our project management tools, but in changing our entire attitude towards knowledge and decision-making as well. Firstly, we must accept that the lessons learned from action are greater than the lessons learned from reflection, and we must acknowledge that it is better to change our minds quickly than to waste time forming an opinion in the first place.

Regardless of our circumstances, we must never forget that uncertainty is an integral part of our lives, which also presents an opportunity for us to grow as individuals and as a society as a whole.