How to Fine-Tune Your BS Detector, According to Sturgeon’s Law

The world is full of empty words, but you don’t need to listen.

“It is incredible how much intelligence is used to this world to prove nonsense.” — Christian Friedrich Hebbel

It’s hard being a science-fiction writer, especially if you’re writing for the mass market.

Not because the mass doesn’t like stories that differ greatly from the real world, but because literary critics will treat you like dirt.

When you hear the word “science-fiction,” you probably think of Arthur C. Clarke with his famous “2001: A Space Odyssey”, or H. G. Wells's classic work of “War of the Worlds.” Or, you might think of the man behind Star Wars and Indiana Jones franchises, George Walton Lucas Jr.

All of them are brilliant authors and sci-fi writers.

But today, let me introduce you to the godfather of contemporary sci-fi and dark fantasy: Ted Sturgeon.

Ted Sturgeon was one of the most productive sci-fi writers in the 50s and 60s. He had penned a total of 11 novels and over 200 short stories.

Sturgeon’s work was known for its deeply humanist and compassionate tone — he cared very much for his characters, many of whom were outsiders, loners, or considered abnormal in some way.

But with success came malice. Sturgeon had to take relentless jabs from critics who declared that ninety percent of all sci-fi was garbage.

The thing is, much of the vast output of sci-fi writing is indeed third-rate — meaning that it consists of very poor quality or standard — which makes it even more difficult for the few works of quality to boost the genre’s standing, even for Ted Sturgeon.

And yet, asserted by the then-common nation, Sturgeon answered in the most clever way. He said:

“Yeah, that’s true — but ninety percent of everything that’s published is garbage, regardless of genre.” — Ted Sturgeon

His answer has gone down in history as Sturgeon’s law.

What is Sturgeon’s law?

Sturgeon’s law is basically the law that says, “ninety percent of everything is crap.”

Seemingly, Sturgeon’s assessment seems a trifle harsh — but only at first glance.

Think about how few books you enjoy until the very end and how much you waste in disappointment after a few pages. Or think about how few TV movies you watch all the way through, and how many times you switch channels.

The ratio is probably consistent with Sturgeon’s law.

Whether it’s exactly ninety percent, a mere eighty-five percent or as much as ninety-five percent is debatable, but it’s not worth the argument. Not in this article, at least.

For simplicity’s sake, let’s stick with ninety percent.

In 2013, philosopher Daniel Dennett championed Sturgeon’s law as one of his tools for critical thinking. According to him, Sturgeon’s law holds true not just for books and films, but more broadly:

“90 percent of everything is crap. That is true, whether you are talking about physics, chemistry, evolutionary psychology, sociology, medicine — you name it.”

The world is full of empty words, but you don’t need to listen

Understanding Sturgeon’s law has been a big sigh of relief for me.

For most of my life, I grew up believing that most of what people produce is important, notable, and valuable, so I always assume that I must be wrong when something seems inadequate.

But today, I know it’s not because of my lack of sophistication if I think an opera production is a flop. I know it’s not because of my weak understanding of commerce if a business plan makes a terrible impression. And I know it’s not the poverty of human goodness if ninety percent of people at work bore me to death.

No, it’s not me — it’s the world. And the people. And everything in between.

It bears repeating: ninety percent of everything is crap.

Want to be more specific? Let me walk you through the words of Rolf Dobelli, author of The Art of Thinking Clearly:

Ninety percent of all advertising is tripe. Ninety percent of all e-mails are verbal diarrhea. Ninety percent of all tweets are nonsense. Ninety percent of all meetings are a waste of time. Ninety percent of everything said in those meetings is hot air. Ninety percent of all invitations are traps best circumvented.

In short, ninety percent of all material and intellectual things put into the world are bullshit and a total waste of time.

How did it all begin?

“Okay… okay. Now I understand that ninety percent of everything is crap. But how did it all begin?” you probably asked.

To answer this question, we need to go back to the good old days—to the era of fisher-hunter-gatherer.

Imagine yourself among our ancestors, 20.000 years ago. You were a hunter (or gatherer), living in a small group of roughly 30 people.

Most of what you encountered was highly relevant: plants that were either edible or poisonous; animals you hunted or were hunted by; members of your tribe who saved your life or endangered it.

In those days, the opposite of Sturgeon’s law prevailed, because ninety percent of everything was relevant.

Ninety percent relevant, ten percent crap.

The remaining ten percent of crap consisted primarily of some story told around the bonfire, bad drawings of animals on the cave wall, or your children’s dramatic effort to search for nuts and berries in the forest.

But that was a long time ago. As time went by, technology came in and innovations are made.

In this digital age, many giant markets and industries are vying for your attention — offering new products, activities, funny YouTube videos, political opinions, career opportunities, or new iPhone series by the day.

It all happens at the palm of your hand in the span of milliseconds, changing and converting as you scroll through each surface on your Instagram page.

How can everything not be irrelevant?

How Sturgeon’s law applies to you

The unstated part of Sturgeon’s law goes, “Can we talk about the good ten percent, please?”

Most of the time, it’s used to “prove” that caring about producing good work is useless because failure is inevitable, and so it became an excuse for laziness. But that’s not what it meant to be.

French writer Voltaire expresses a similar idea of Sturgeon’s law in his short story, The World As It Is:

“You have read some very despicable things, but in all times, in all countries, and in all genres, the bad abounds, and the good is rare.” — Voltaire

Voltaire would agree that bearing Sturgeon’s law in mind will improve your life. It’s a tremendously helpful mental tool that “allows” you to steer yourself toward what is important and pass over to most of what you see, hear, or read without feeling guilty.

Of course, this is easier said than done. A bullshit detector is not built-in inside our lizard brains.

Thanks to human evolution, kicking free of all the crap in the world isn’t our natural behavior. We’re wired to care about basically anything — to look for the best option.

Purpose branding and marketing works because looking for “the best” is just a natural part of our lives. We are surrounded by brand names, so much that they become part of our daily conversations. Quality brand names give us something to hold on to, and thus, we believe in them.

Here’s a simple trick: pass over most of them like rotten apples at a fruit stall. Ninety percent of what you see, hear, or read are ridiculous, third-rate, and just plain trash that can safely be ignored.

Trust me, applying Sturgeon’s law will save you plenty of time and frustration. It will help you identify lies and nonsense that spread faster than ever in today’s world. It will help you see the world around you and recognize crap for what it is.

Don’t try to rid the world of nonsense. You can’t. The world can stay irrational longer than you can stay sane.

Concentrate on being selective about the very few things that are valuable, and put everything else aside.

You can thank me later.

Final Thoughts

It’s time for the ultimate truth: Sturgeon’s law isn’t just true of the world outside — it’s also true for all of us.

I can only speak for myself, but ninety percent of my ideas are useless. Ninety percent of my emotions are ill-founded. And ninety percent of my wishes are silly idle talk.

But because I’m aware of it, I’m much more careful about which “inner products” I take seriously and which I pass by with a smile.

So don’t just take any old crap that’s offered to you or give in to every urge simply because you feel like doing it. Precious few things are valuable. Use Sturgeon’s law to recognize the difference between ideas and good ideas; products and excellent products; content and great content.

Last but not least, remember that a BS detector is not innate. You’ve got to deliberately train one.