How To End the Russia-Ukraine War (and Save Thousands of Lives)

Blood doesn’t have to be shed, we can prioritize peace

Humanitarian crisis escalates. According to the UN, over 2.5 million people already rendered refugees, mostly women, and children.

Queues at the borders continue to increase. Reception centers for refugees are crowded, women and children in freezing cold without food and water. Their only hope is well-wishers and donors.

These were thriving families living in peace just like you and me. They had a life, some were days to their wedding. Others, the business had just picked up. Some were waiting to graduate, etc. All lost in a blink of an eye now left with only two options to pick from. Either flee and start a new life in a different country or hold a riffle and defend your country.

The temporary seize fire on two major cities couldn’t even work. The lives of innocent civilians were lost increasing the number of casualties. The two sides blamed each other and that was it. These are the realities of war happening at the heart of modern Europe.

As of day 21 since the invasion, children's casualties currently stand at 115. This number is only to increase if the war continues which is actually the current reality. Regardless of the differences, this war needs to stop. The actions of a few brave men can put an end to it.

What Exactly Is the Problem: Is It the History/Past Imperialism, Modern-Day Dictatorship, NATO, the West, or Something Else?

Most sources addressing the issue are siding with history or past imperialism. They are saying it's modern-day expansionism and dictatorship. Some go to the extent of representing Putin as the Adolf Hitler of the 21st century.

But what exactly is the problem? And are these claims actually true? To fully comprehend we will have to dig deeper and look at what’s beyond the surface.

Part of doing that is to understand Putin’s view of NATO, The West, and why he is willing to stake his country and spill innocent blood.

View 1: The history/Past imperialism—Russia and Ukraine are one

Most media outlets have this as the primary and probably the only reason why Putin is invading Ukraine.

He doesn’t want his motherland to have western influence since Russia and Ukraine are one. Western influence means Ukraine being a part of a western-headed organization and all the aftermath that comes with it.

In other terms, he wants to capture Ukraine and liberate his people from western influence because he believes Russia and Ukraine are one which is actually true to some degree.

This is routed from past imperialism. Ukraine has been ruled by Russia for the most part of modern history. It gained its independence in 1991 which is so recent after the break of the soviet union.

The deal-breaker here is past imperialism shouldn’t be used to justify present-day expansionism. It also doesn’t justify war and the spilling of innocent blood.

View 2: The safety of Russia, resources in Ukrain and The West

Donald Trump considers Vladimir Putin as smart. Putin has criticized the US several times for its operation in the Middle East. This is in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the other countries the US carries out its operations.

Particularly, he was displeased by US efforts of minimizing terrorism. From his words, instead of the US minimizing terrorism, they created a hotbed for terrorism. He argued the US wants to do the same with Ukraine, right on their border.

It’s been long-rumored the reason the US has its military in the Middle East was because of natural resources, particularly oil. US demand for oil has been increasing, and the only way to match the demand was by invading the Middle East.

The argument made its way in Elon Musk’s popular book written by Ashlee Vance. One of Elon Musks' chief executives was a high rank US ex-military. His motivation for working on electric cars (Tesla) was to reduce US dependence on oil which has claimed many lives in the Middle East.

NATO is a US lead military force that includes European countries. Below are the reasons why Putin doesn’t want Ukraine's Involvement with The West/NATO.

• Ukraine is near Russia. They share a massive border of 2, 295.04 km (1, 426.07 miles). NATO wants to set military bases in Ukraine and Russia feels threatened. Such a massive border covers a huge area that can be difficult to defend.
• Ukraine is very rich in natural resources. World’s 7th largest coal reserve and Europe’s second-largest. It is estimated to be 34 billion tons. Separate sources have estimated the coal to be about 115 billion tons. Also, 1.1 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, 135 million tons of oil, 80,000 tons of condensed gas, 3.7 billion tons of shale oil reserves, among others. Putin doesn’t want NATO to have that opportunity.

Looking at NATO’s list of operations, suggesting NATO’s presence in Ukraine is The West going after Ukraine’s natural resources isn’t convincing.

What is clear though is that Putin doesn’t want NATO to have the slightest opportunity in as far as natural resources in Ukraine are concerned.

Understanding the Aggressor: Looking via Putin’s lense

Even though Trump said Putin was smart, I don’t think he is super smart. If he was super smart, he would come up with an alternative strategy for solving the problem.

One that doesn’t involve shedding innocent blood or rendering over 2.5 million people refugees, people who had a perfect life in their home country.

I am not here to talk ill of Putin like the rest of the current media content. In this section, we want to understand him.

Before the invasion, he had mentioned severally he wasn’t comfortable with Ukraine getting cozy with NATO. He’s been issuing warnings on what is likely to occur if Ukraine continues being cozy with NATO or becomes a part of NATO.

Before Ukraine’s got cozy with NATO and the EU, peace existed. Both parties were comfortable enough not to result in conflict or war despite the break of the Soviet Union and Ukraine being declared an independent country.

Beginning of modern-day conflict

For peace to reign, there is a formula to it. Some conditions have to be met. Each party has to be satisfied enough not to result in a conflict or war. Even if differences exist, war or conflict begins when one party can no longer tolerate the actions of the other.

This mostly happens when peace talks have failed or one side feels as if the other didn’t listen to its plea.

Ukraine gained Independence in August 1991, partnership with NATO started in 1994. The partnership brought them a step closer to becoming a member.

In 2013, Ukraine reached an agreement to join the EU. But when it was time to sign the deal, Ukraine’s pro-Russian president refused. Instead, he chose to take a $15 billion payout from Putin. This was to strengthen Ukraine’s relations with Russia.

Ukrainians were not happy. Protests broke in Ukraine. They become so intense that the government had to respond. Their response was to engage the protesters.

The fight got bloody, a hundred people lost their lives and things got out of hand. The pro-Russian president was ousted and escaped to Russia.

The people of Ukraine had rejected the pro-Russian regime. Putin was displeased, he had to know what next, he had to make a comeback. In 2014, about a year later, he annexed the Crimean peninsula region.

The people of Crimea voted and the Russian Federation won by a majority of votes. Putin viewed it as victory and liberation. The rest of the world viewed it as annexation.

This was the first time Putin invaded Ukraine. The apparent reason? The people of Ukraine had rejected the pro-Russian regime. The other reason could be, he wanted to show the world that Russia had support in Ukraine despite the rejection.

A new Ukrainian government was established after the previous one had been driven out of power. Initial protests broke out in eastern and southern Ukraine. In these regions, not everyone was happy with the new pre-western government.

This sprung up the emergence of separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk. They began as small groups of protesters. Russia allegedly backed these separatists and in 2014 (the same year) they captured Donetsk and Luhansk. They then declared these regions independent of Ukraine.

This marked the beginning of the modern-day conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainian forces were forced into war trying to protect territory captured by the Russian-backed separatists.

The war got so intense. This led to the creation of ceasefire agreements. The Minsk agreement failed which lead to the formation of the Minsk II. The second agreement partially worked. Below is how to describe it.

“While fighting subsided following the agreement’s signing, it never ended completely, and the agreement’s provisions were never fully implemented. The Normandy Format parties agreed that the Minsk II remains the basis for any future resolution to the conflict.”—Wikipedia

Putin continued holding the regions he had captured. Regardless of the conflict not ending completely, peace reigned in the majority of Ukraine until 2022.

Escalation of Russian invasion in 2021—2022

In late March 2021, Russia started military build-up in Crimea and Pogonovo (a military camp near Ukraine’s border). By 9th April, Ukraine's defense estimated that 85,000 Russian soldiers were located in Crimea or at least 40 km from the Ukrainian border.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky talked to Biden and urged a speedup of Ukraine's NATO membership.

A Kremlin spokesperson (Russian government official) said that Russia’s military activity poses no threat. At the same time, Dmitry Kozak (Deputy Kremlin Chief of Staff) said that Russian forces could act to protect Russian citizens in Ukraine and any escalation of the conflict could mean the beginning of the end of Ukraine.

Russia’s Minister of Defense, Sergey Shoygu, announced an exercise drawdown on April 22, 2021, with troops returning to base by May 1 but equipment remaining at the Pogonovo training facility for the annual exercise with Belarus in September 2021.

In the subsequent months, Ukraine’s military carried out operations with NATO forces.

In October 2021, a second Russian military build-up happened, this time with more soldiers and covering new fronts. By December, Russia had stacked over 100,000 troops on three edges of Ukraine’s border. Despite the build-up, Russian officials still denied any plans to invade Ukraine.

In December 2021, Putin made a list of requests to the west and warned of military action if they were not met. He presented two draft treaties containing requests for “security guarantees.” Below are the requests.

• A legal promise that Ukraine would not join NATO.
• A reduction in NATO soldiers and military equipment stationed in Eastern Europe.

Other supposed requests include:

• NATO stop expanding.
• America vows not to use nuclear weapons to protect its Eastern European allies.

NATO turned down these requests and warned Putin of severe consequences if he invades Ukraine. The west and a larger majority of the international community viewed the requests as ludicrous and an excuse to justify war. Is this actually true or there is a backstory to it?

Putin’s Requests Backstory

Invading a sovereign country cannot be justified. Regardless, there is also the other side of the story.

On 4th April 1948, the North Atlantic Treaty was signed, this treaty was basically an anti-soviet accord. It was meant to combat any future aggression by the USSR.

Moscow viewed the alliance as a threat. In 1955, the USSR created the WARSAW Pact, the aim was almost the same, to protect members from any aggression from The West. Or to protect its interests from The West.

The two sides faced off each other. The WARSAW Pact viewed NATO as a western tool for imperialism. The reason? The USSR was getting weaker, the Berlin wall had crumbled in 1989, and the USSR was about to disintegrate (which eventually happened in 1991)

Europe's regional order hinged on one question, should Germany join NATO or the WARSAW Pact. In September 1990, the US government under President George H. W. Bush made an offer to the back then Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev.

The offer? If Germany joins NATO, NATO would cease enlarging. No new members and no expansion to the east, not even a single inch to the east. The USSR bought the offer and dissolved the WARSAW Pact.

In recent times, the US said no such agreements were made. Regardless, hundreds of memos, meeting minutes, and transcripts from archives reveal the deal was indeed made.

The USSR expected The West to dissolve NATO after they had dissolved the WARSAW Pact. That never happened. They continued with their operations. To make matters worse, they continued expanding.

Russia saw this as a stab in the back. NATO pushed the dagger deeper by expanding eastwards. Former USSR countries joined NATO.

Despite Russia's protests, complaints, and warnings, NATO continued to expand. The last friendly warning was in 2007 at the annual Munich conference by Vladimir Putin and I quote.

“NATO has put its frontline forces on our borders. This expansion represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the right to ask, against whom is this expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact.”—Vladimir Putin (2007)

So, are Putin’s demands from NATO delusional? Absolutely not, there is a story behind it.

Ukraine is a sovereign country. It is independent and has the right to form partnerships with whomever it wants. At the same time, not honoring agreed terms is unwise and filthy. Double-crossing when there is trust is just not right.

The Big Brother and Small Brother Analogy

The big brother here is NATO. The WARSAW Pact was dissolved. NATO now remains the dominant force.

If you compare the military strength of NATO and Russia, clearly NATO is the big brother here.

“Humility is not thinking less of yourself, but thinking of yourself less.”—C.S. Lewis

If a big brother gets into an argument with the small brother, one of them has to give in for the argument to end. When the big brother is wise, often he is the one who gives in. It turns out shameful when the small brother has to give in.

“Humility doesn’t mean that you’re weak or unsure of yourself. It means that you have the self-confidence to recognize the value of others without feeling threatened.”—Brian Tracy

War throws a county into an abyss. It should be the last resolve when everything else has failed. Disguising ego for courage and bravery is just not right when you think of rendering millions of people homeless, not to talk of the deaths.

“Without humility, there can be no humanity.”—John Buchan

I get it, staying on your grounds, upholding the same values we’ve so much fought for, and never backing down. At what expense, deaths of thousands of people and rendering thousands of others refugees?

From studying Putin, he is not the type of guy who often makes baseless claims. He is a reserved Russian, 69 years of age who feels The West has gone too far.

He is also not the type of guy to respond to directly with a fighting attitude, he doesn’t fear. What he wants is to be listened to and his requests possibly granted.

Mathematically, time is running out to shore up Ukraine. We can still save Ukraine, bring lasting peace, potentially avoid world war III and possibly evade a possible recession as a result of sanctions imposed on Russia

The Long Term Approach, Looking at the Bigger Picture

If NATO honored Putin's request before the invasion, over 2.5 million people would be in their homes. The dead would still be alive.

Putin's requests were specifically for The West, not even for Ukraine. It’s not too late though, we can save the situation. I mean, what would NATO lose if they agreed to Putin's requests?

Looking at the situation at hand. They could save the day and be left to figure out how to proceed. One step at a time. A quick solution to a huge apparent problem. It was that simple. It still is.

NATO is an alliance that is here to stay for decades to come. They could decide not to expand on former USSR countries and reduce their forces on Eastern Europe for the next 30 years, in favor of the people of Ukraine. This could also possibly avert world war III and a recession.

They would lose nothing, it would just be a matter of time. Who knows, by then Putin probably wouldn’t even be the president. The people of Ukraine don’t deserve to suffer, there is something we can do to avoid the bad that is about to come.