Summary

The article discusses the concept of survivorship bias and provides strategies for avoiding it, emphasizing the importance of hard work, realistic expectations, and self-discovery.

Abstract

The article "How to Avoid the Trap of Survivorship Bias" delves into the common statistical error of focusing solely on success stories, which neglects the data from failures. It cites historical examples, such as Abraham Wald's analysis of bullet holes in WWII planes, to illustrate the concept. The author references Malcolm Gladwell's book "Outliers," which argues that success is not solely the result of individual effort but also a product of environmental factors and luck, though hard work remains a crucial component. The article warns against the internet's amplification of success narratives, suggesting that this can distort perceptions of achievable success. It advises readers to manage expectations, engage in self-discovery, and persist in their endeavors without succumbing to the pressure of survivorship bias.

Opinions

The author acknowledges the motivational yet misleading nature of statistics that only represent successful self-employed individuals.
There is an emphasis on the idea that success stories online do not represent the full spectrum of outcomes, potentially misleading individuals about their chances of success.
The author expresses a personal fear of the impact of survivorship bias on their own goals and success, indicating a deep understanding of its potential consequences.
"Outliers" by Malcolm Gladwell is presented as a resource that challenges the notion of self-made success, highlighting the role of external factors and luck.
The article suggests that while luck is a factor in success, consistent hard

How to Avoid the Trap of Survivorship Bias

“97% of self-employed professionals don’t plan on returning to traditional work.” — Freshbooks

An interesting statistic — a motivating sentiment even, but it doesn’t paint the whole picture. ‘Self-employed professionals’ infers these people are currently self-employed, ignoring those who are no longer self-employed. This is what we would call survivorship bias. The people who survived to become sustainably self-employed are the people represented in this statistic.

Survivorship bias is the idea that in statistics, failures are ignored because they become obscured by successes. The most famous example of this is in World War II when Abraham Wald pointed out that the areas of the planes where bullet holes were are not where the armor should be, because the planes that were shot in other areas did not return and therefore did not become part of the data.

This bias has always been around and has only become more common with modern technology.

We constantly see success stories online; on YouTube, on the news, on Instagram, on Medium, everywhere. We have all heard that it is unlikely to achieve great success, but are we still lying to ourselves about our capability?

This is a fear I face every day of my life. As someone with tremendous goals, I never feel what I am doing has any impact. The idea that all this work, that all this persistence and initiative will not be the ultimate decider of my success is one of my greatest phobias. That is how seriously I take survivorship bias.

So as someone who is constantly in fear of this, I would like to help you with how to best avoid falling into the trap of survivorship bias.

Outliers

“I want to convince you that these kinds of personal explanations of success don’t work. People don’t rise from nothing….It is only by asking where they are from that we can unravel the logic behind who succeeds and who doesn’t.” — Malcolm Gladwell

We shall start by talking about this great book, Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell. The premise behind it is that people we deem to be outliers are not outliers at all but in fact a product of their environment.

From the history of how Jewish people became rich lawyers to how Bill Gates started Microsoft, Outliers discusses the circumstances behind the successes. In the end, an immense amount of luck brought everything together.

But things are never black and white, there is more to this…

“No one who can rise before dawn three hundred sixty days a year fails to make his family rich.” — Malcolm Gladwell

Across the board without fail Malcolm found that hard work and consistent learning were the main catalysts to every outlier. He noted that as a rounded estimate, success was found through 10,000 hours of deliberate practice.

Luck may be one of the pillars of success, but hard work will always be the catalyst to propel an individual or group to the top, not their circumstances.

The Internet Megaphone

You need to be extra wary in the 21st century.

The internet that we take for granted so much is the house of the largest amount of survivorship bias known to society. It has become a megaphone preaching success. Everywhere you look, success is pushed onto you as if it is just a step away; just out of reach, enticing you to believe anything is possible.

So let's be realistic and talk about expectations.

Everyone wants success in one form or another, but focusing your energy on the right areas is important. Not all of us are meant to play in the NBA.

You can’t control what you are good at, so find something you enjoy and are good at. Self-discovery and willingness to try new activities are the essences of this journey — it may take a month, a year, a decade, or more.

Don’t fear survivorship bias — fear giving up. The pressure of achieving success can be overwhelming at times and while you need to take breaks, you only get trapped if you stop trying. You don’t have to be going hard the whole time, but if you don’t feel the passion for what you are doing, you haven’t found what will make you successful. 10,000 hours is a lot when you hate what you do.

Success is never guaranteed, but the more you try, the more tickets in the lottery you get.