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Abstract

443">Most of today’s ideas and projects will fail and just a tiny percentage will succeed and become big. We’ll forget about the failures, talk about the success stories, and pretend that everything was obvious.For every Google, there are many AltavistasFor every Facebook, there are many FriendstersFor every Bitcoin, there are many shitcoinsOf course, we’ve missed out on the winners but I bet you are glad you didn’t bet for all those losers either.<h1 id="80b7">Opportunity cost</h1>You could have been a writer, a musician, an entrepreneur, or a whizkid but not all of that at once.Every time you say yes to something you are saying no to something else. Time is very limited and you can only do one thing at a time.It nice to think you should have/could have done this or that at the time but, could you? And at what price?<h1 id="bd8e">The grass is always greener</h1>For every person who regrets not becoming a coder, there are 1000 that hate their job and quit.When we look at what could have been it’s easy to cherry-pick, to idealize some aspects of that career or that decision but, had we followed that path our lives wouldn’t probably be so amazing now.<h1 id="fe8b">The end of history</h1>At any given point, we humans, feel that we have reached the end of the road, that everything has been invented already, and that the future is just the same old, same old.That’s the end of history fallacy.“640K is more memory than anyone will ever need on a computer” — Bill Gates, 1981.“Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia.” — Dr. Dionysys Larder, 1793–1859.“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” — Western Union, 1878.“In 50 years every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure” — The Times, 1894.“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty–a fad.” — The president of the Michigan Savings Bank, 1903.We are particularly bad at making predictions, especially predicting what won’t happen.Nowadays I hear a lot of people saying the electric car has no future, self-driving cars are a chimera, AI won’t be relevant, and other pearls of wisdom.Well, let me tell you, these people are spectacularly wrong and they are going to miss out on a lot. Tec

Options

hnology is unpredictable and even the experts are often wrong but still, it’s very obvious there are huge changes coming our way. Be prepared.<h1 id="e025">FOMO</h1>Paradoxically, the fear of missing out, it’s what makes you miss out. When you suffer from FOMO you chase many opportunities but only timidly. You don’t focus, you don’t make a clear bet and you hop from one trend to the next.The fox that chases two rabbits catches none.<h1 id="1c6e">Impostor Syndrome</h1>One of the main reasons you don’t pursue a career with lots of potential is because you don’t think you are good enough.Many opportunities have been missed due to the impostor syndrome.You must realize that everybody is an impostor. We are all faking it as we go along. Nobody knows what they are doing. Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Bill Gates. They didn’t have a clue when they started and even after they achieved success, they were very much hit and miss.How many failures has Google had? What about Microsoft or Apple?LotsIf you think you are not good enough to take on an opportunity is because you are not, nobody is.Yet, some go for it despite not being ready, while others hesitate and miss out.Everything big that was ever achieved was done by impostors like you and me — outsiders that didn’t belong to the selected club they were about to destroy.So, if you feel like an impostor that’s a good sign, you have more chance of success than the insiders.<h1 id="da87">You are not really late for anything</h1>The party hasn’t even started yet. We are here waiting for you.<ul><li>The internet is in its infancy</li><li>Mobile technology has only developed 1% of its potential</li><li>AI is now where the internet was in the 80s</li><li>Self-driving cars are going revolutionize everything from work to shopping to housing</li><li>Established technologies like podcasting, blogging, and YouTube still have a long way to go</li><li>New platforms and technologies are emerging every day — Tiktok, Substack, Blockchain, Crisper, and many more. Now is the time to join the trend</li><li>Every new technology creates unintended consequences that can be used as opportunities — the Internet of Things, Cloud Technology, Virtual Reality, etc</li></ul>Don’t worry about what you’ve missed, what’s coming it’s going to be bigger and better. Keep your eyes open, don’t listen to the naysayers, get ready, and take action now.You definitely don’t want to be late for this party.</article></body>

How to Avoid Being Late to The Party

You don’t want to miss out this time

I don’t know about you but I can’t help feeling that I’ve missed out on many opportunities in life.

So many regrets, so many mistakes, so much indecision despite knowing I should have gone for it.

Here are some of the parties I’ve missed.

I started coding when no one was coding. Then I quit and miss out on the internet boom
I tried to buy Bitcoin at $200. The transaction didn’t go through and I didn’t persist. Now it’s worth $16,000. Ouch
I could have bought property in London 20 years ago at a reasonable price and with an affordable mortgage. Too expensive I thought. Idiot!
I’ve been an early Youtuber, podcaster, blogger, and webmaster but didn’t keep it up so I have nothing to show for it

You get the pic. I can spot trends but I lack the patience to wait until they explode. Everything is obvious in hindsight, sometimes even before, but just having a hunch is not enough.

If only we could get back in time.

Here are some of the reasons we miss obvious opportunities in front of our very eyes.

Hindsight is 20/20

Being an early investor in Google, Amazon, Apple or Bitcoin seems like an obvious thing now but it wasn’t so obvious at the time. I started using Google in 1998 when everybody was using Yahoo. I thought it was pretty good but I could not imagine that a search engine would grow into the empire that is Google today.

Bitcoin was considered a scam for years by the experts. Many still think it is.

The same thing could be said about Apple or Amazon. Apple was making expensive computers for geeks and almost went bust several times while Amazon struggled for years trying to sell paper books.

It was not obvious to anyone that these companies would be dominating the world just a few years later.

The lessons we can learn from all this is: nothing is obvious, the experts don’t have a clue, and the future will look very different from what we have now.

Survivorship bias

Most of today’s ideas and projects will fail and just a tiny percentage will succeed and become big. We’ll forget about the failures, talk about the success stories, and pretend that everything was obvious.

For every Google, there are many Altavistas

For every Facebook, there are many Friendsters

For every Bitcoin, there are many shitcoins

Of course, we’ve missed out on the winners but I bet you are glad you didn’t bet for all those losers either.

Opportunity cost

You could have been a writer, a musician, an entrepreneur, or a whizkid but not all of that at once.

Every time you say yes to something you are saying no to something else. Time is very limited and you can only do one thing at a time.

It nice to think you should have/could have done this or that at the time but, could you? And at what price?

The grass is always greener

For every person who regrets not becoming a coder, there are 1000 that hate their job and quit.

When we look at what could have been it’s easy to cherry-pick, to idealize some aspects of that career or that decision but, had we followed that path our lives wouldn’t probably be so amazing now.

The end of history

At any given point, we humans, feel that we have reached the end of the road, that everything has been invented already, and that the future is just the same old, same old.

That’s the end of history fallacy.

“640K is more memory than anyone will ever need on a computer” — Bill Gates, 1981.

“Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia.” — Dr. Dionysys Larder, 1793–1859.

“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” — Western Union, 1878.

“In 50 years every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure” — The Times, 1894.

“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty–a fad.” — The president of the Michigan Savings Bank, 1903.

We are particularly bad at making predictions, especially predicting what won’t happen.

Nowadays I hear a lot of people saying the electric car has no future, self-driving cars are a chimera, AI won’t be relevant, and other pearls of wisdom.

Well, let me tell you, these people are spectacularly wrong and they are going to miss out on a lot. Technology is unpredictable and even the experts are often wrong but still, it’s very obvious there are huge changes coming our way. Be prepared.

FOMO

Paradoxically, the fear of missing out, it’s what makes you miss out. When you suffer from FOMO you chase many opportunities but only timidly. You don’t focus, you don’t make a clear bet and you hop from one trend to the next.

The fox that chases two rabbits catches none.

Impostor Syndrome

One of the main reasons you don’t pursue a career with lots of potential is because you don’t think you are good enough.

Many opportunities have been missed due to the impostor syndrome.

You must realize that everybody is an impostor. We are all faking it as we go along. Nobody knows what they are doing. Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Bill Gates. They didn’t have a clue when they started and even after they achieved success, they were very much hit and miss.

How many failures has Google had? What about Microsoft or Apple?

Lots

If you think you are not good enough to take on an opportunity is because you are not, nobody is.

Yet, some go for it despite not being ready, while others hesitate and miss out.

Everything big that was ever achieved was done by impostors like you and me — outsiders that didn’t belong to the selected club they were about to destroy.

So, if you feel like an impostor that’s a good sign, you have more chance of success than the insiders.

You are not really late for anything

The party hasn’t even started yet. We are here waiting for you.

The internet is in its infancy
Mobile technology has only developed 1% of its potential
AI is now where the internet was in the 80s
Self-driving cars are going revolutionize everything from work to shopping to housing
Established technologies like podcasting, blogging, and YouTube still have a long way to go
New platforms and technologies are emerging every day — Tiktok, Substack, Blockchain, Crisper, and many more. Now is the time to join the trend
Every new technology creates unintended consequences that can be used as opportunities — the Internet of Things, Cloud Technology, Virtual Reality, etc

Don’t worry about what you’ve missed, what’s coming it’s going to be bigger and better. Keep your eyes open, don’t listen to the naysayers, get ready, and take action now.

You definitely don’t want to be late for this party.