Politics — War in Ukraine
How the War in Ukraine is forcing us to the brink of World War III
The War in Ukraine and how it will escalate
A year ago on February 1, I wrote the following article:
There was a lot of rebuke at that point from Ukrainians, Russians, and a mix bag from everyone else. Indeed Russia had yet to invade for another 24 days. Although the idea wasn’t implausible due to over 100k Russian troops surrounding the borders of Ukraine.
Once Russia did invade, it was thought it would be over quickly. It reminded me of the oft-mentioned phrase in the British media in 1939 about the dawn of WWII; “It’ll be over by Christmas.” Of course, WWII wouldn’t end for another six years. The United States said the same thing about Vietnam when it first engaged in the Battle of la Drang. History proved otherwise.
In this case, for the Russians, nothing was speedy. As Russian tanks slowly got stuck in the mud, and the chaos of the Russian strategy came to light, I was reminded of the line the character Valentin Mirinov lets slip in “The Good Shepherd”:
“Soviet power is a myth. Great show. There are no spare parts. Nothing is working, nothing, it’s nothing but painted rust.” ~ written by Eric Roth
The realities of Russia’s tactical skills underlined the power of political spin and how it can throw us all off. Then, the Ukrainians surprised everyone.
Over the months, through consistent media campaigns and relentless requests for help, President Zelenskyy has been able to pull together significant support — simply by being an inspiration.
Where we are now
The reticence from much of Europe is palpable. Not much moves quickly here in Europe in the best of times, but there is a very good reason. Many can see the way this is unfolding, much like the second world war. In a lot of ways the West has appeased Russia in their lack of response. Yet there is a fine line between appeasement and caution. As the year progressed, and the economic realities began to affect the rest of the world, this is most likely what has swayed western allies to get more involved.
Is this the beginning of WWIII?
For the last week the question on all of mainstream media’s lips is “Is this a new Cold War?” Yet being a child of the Cold War and seeing things from within the U.S. military — to put it frankly — there ain’t nothin’ cold about war in Ukraine. With the amount of military action in the last year this seems a lot more like prologue to a wider war. We (the world) are not in WWIII yet, but I would say we are very close.
What’s interesting is if you pay attention to what the United States is saying. The implication of a wider war is clearly on their mind. U.S. and NATO officials are VERY specific in saying it is not in direct conflict with Russia. When officials are usually asked, they often refer to the UN Charter. Specifically, according to Chapter VII Article 51 of the United Nations Charter:
“Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.”
Things take time to build, even Wars. WWI slowly bubbled away, as did the lead up to WWII in the “inter-war years”.
But the tide turned toward the possibility of a World War as the winter of 2022 approached. As the 2022 harvest came, we saw Russia having say in whether Ukrainian wheat could be exported at all. It makes me wonder who profited, but more importantly it shows us who has political sway in the War. Between this and the slowing of fertilizer exports and the weaponization of Oil and Gas to the EU, the West has been rattled.
The Next Russian Push
“Quantity has a quality all its own.” ~ Stalin
It’s very appropriate to use this quote, especially since Putin has used Stalin-esque tactics throughout several campaigns (Ukraine, Syria, Chechnya). The reason tanks are so very much needed now is because Putin stands at the ready to send in an additional 300,000 troops in the next few weeks. My guess, sometime in the Spring. The intelligence community believes Putin may try and take Kyiv again.
The first delivery of tanks is most likely to come at the end of March. If Russia has any dry powder left, the time to deploy its massive push would be now.
Since the Germans have agreed to supply tanks by way of Poland, and the British are currently training Ukrainians on Challenger tanks.
Russia has stated that they consider those supplying tanks as being directly involved in the conflict.
The Russian embassy in Germany said on Wednesday the decision to send 14 German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv and allow allies to re-export the same models would worsen the war in Ukraine and lead to “permanent escalation”.
The Russian response has gone so far as to say that the appearance of German tanks on the battlefield means they will view German cities as legitimate targets.
However, what Russia says and what Russia does are usually two different things. During Putin’s annual speech on the 21st of Feb 2023 he railed against the West, insisting that Russia invaded Ukraine because of the West.
Given the battlefield performance over the last year, I wouldn’t worry too much. As long as the only aggressor is Russia.
What will happen next in Ukraine — escalation
The last two world wars occurred because of an alliance of forces. Germany, Japan and Italy mobilized first strikes against Europe, the United States and lets not forget… Russia. Russia fought some of the most gruesome battles against Germany. But times change, and so have motivations.
The alliance has gotten so strong, today on the eve of the first anniversary of the war, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez popped in to Kyiv for a visit with President Zelenskyy.
This is important in the fact that Spain, the sixth largest economy in the EU has been very quiet on the international stage, even though it has been silently supporting Kyiv with military aid packages all along.
However in recent weeks they too, have pledged German-made Leopard tanks.
Does this mean Russia will declare war on Germany, Spain, France, the UK and the United States? They might say it and try, but it would be a failure.
But why is Russia so adamant?
The answer may be gleaned from the former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev who now serves as head of the Russian Security Council, when he said on 22 Feb 2023:
if Putin loses the war against Ukraine, Russia will be torn apart, and it will cease to exist. ~ pravda.com.ua
Clearly there is a significant internal struggle in Russia where winning the war is a political apex.
This internal determination is why we have seen Russia reaching out to Iran and China for assistance. China is on the fence of making a decision, and intelligence seems to be sketchy as to what they might actually do.
But there in one thing we can hypothesize:
If Russia will be torn apart if it loses, and if Ukraine loses they will be erased from existence — we have a significant conflict on our hands that will not go away.
Two of the strongest statements came out this week from the West. Ben Wallace, the British Secretary of State for Defence, stated that he doesn’t think this war is going to end anytime soon, and Lord Hutton the former British Secretary of State for Defence stated “Putin needs to receive a strategic defeat.”
Additionally, Sec. Wallace also suggested that it is likely western allies will supply MIGs to the Ukrainians in the coming months.
My sense, is it’s possible Western allies smell economic opportunity on the part of a Russian collapse. I think this is the real reason why you are seeing the United States suddenly gain interest. But that’s a different article.
Hedgehog Strategy & The NATO-ization of Ukraine
It is going to be incredibly difficult for this conflict to come to an end with Russia retreating across the border licking it’s wounds. Surely Ukraine could pump a fist in the air and declare victory at that point. However, the wolf permanently lives next door and it would only be a matter of time before something kicked off again. A War such as this has never ended without the aggressor being invaded or torn apart themselves. It was tried in WWI, but it took WWII and pushing the Nazis all the way back to Berlin for the war to end. However, it is doubtful an invasion of Moscow will ever be on the table for the West.
This is where the Hedgehog defense theory comes in. In essence, think Israel.
Ukraine will have to create hundreds of miles of strict borders, with an extensive military, with missiles, a defense shield, and an air force to protect itself.
It’s chief supplier would be the United States, and it would look something like the Marshall Plan. The next most natural option is for Ukraine to join NATO, the very thing Putin was trying to avoid. Otherwise it will have to figure out a way to fund all of this itself, which is far out of reach.
The last thing that will happen is the War in Ukraine simply ending. Unless Putin’s regime or Russia itself collapses, defense will always have to be foremost on Ukraine’s mind. But if Medvedev’s statement teaches us anything, its that there is significant support behind Putin.
Conclusion
To quote another movie… ideals are peaceful, history is violent (Fury). Right now we have one nation testing those ideals. Sovereignty, independence, liberty and the right to self-determination. The War in Ukraine is the most clear violation of these in the modern era.
In the year since the Russian invasion, I have spoken to experienced soldiers who’ve volunteered for combat. Also civilians who have never seen combat who volunteered to personally deliver supplies and equipment to towns and villages deep in within Ukraine. Some of them have gone back several times.
What I find certain is that the War in Ukraine has inspired many to action on both sides. That is all that is required for a World War.
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