How Studying Conspiracies Can Improve Your Decisions at Work

The anatomy of conspiracy and the latest neuroscience on how we can make better decisions

Conspiracies hold our attention like a fireworks display. From footballers to physicists, no one is immune to the bright lights and loud noises.

Today, theories about current events are shared instantly over the internet. But in the past, the dissemination of ideas was more laborious. The earliest printed conspiracy theory appeared in 1835 when Samuel Morse (inventor of Morse code) published an article, “Foreign Conspiracy Against the Liberties of the United States,” in the New-York Observer.

As a Protestant, Morse believed Catholic immigration was a threat to American society. He believed foreign influences were plotting to change the fabric of America. But was there really a plot to change American society?

This is where the line between fiction and reality blends. For it’s possible for plots to exist, even if they’re unlikely. This article will look at the anatomy of conspiracy and study the latest neuroscience to learn how we can make better decisions.

Why is Decision-Making Important?

• Meeting targets — Every business has targets or long-term goals. Meeting those targets requires some essential ingredients. The most important is the method. There’s no point setting a target without also producing an accurate and expedient route toward achieving it. And finding that optimal path requires good decision-making.
• Managing resources — Deploying techniques such as resource leveling to maintain stocks. Ensuring that the right people are allocated to a project. Or deploying the principles of holistic management. These are all vital decisions that demand clear, objective thinking.
• Hiring process — Choosing the right candidate for the job is vital for optimising quality and efficiency. James has all the right qualifications, but Jenny, who lacks the desired qualifications, has proven experience with your system. Which candidate do you hire to maximize quality and efficiency?

In truth, decision-making affects every facet of work. From problem-solving to market research, making good decisions is at the very heart of what makes a business successful. So how can understanding conspiracy theories help one make better decisions?

What is a Conspiracy Theory?

Have you ever felt like the world is against you? Well, it could be but it probably isn’t. In a similar way, conspiracy theories play upon our imaginations. They offer simplistic explanations — like the work of a secret, malevolent group — despite the existence of more probable explanations.

That’s the fireworks effect. Our attention turns away from the dull and obvious and is attracted instead by the bright lights and loud noises. As such, a conspiracy theory might be seen as a cognitive bias. And escaping such biases can help you to improve your decision-making.

Antisemitism is one of the oldest and most persistent forms of conspiratorial thinking. In England, it goes back to the 12th century. At that time, Jewish immigrants were accused of sacrificing Christian children in what was named the Blood Libel.

In the city of York in England, on March 16, 1190, antisemitic sentiments culminated in a massacre of around 150 Jews. History is rife with examples of how bad ideas can turn into bad actions. Take the Protocols of the Elders of Zion. This terrible hoax detailed a plan by Jewish elites for world domination and was used to justify the holocaust. These are extreme examples but the point remains true.

In short, a blindfolded approach to understanding complex issues walks directly toward bad actions. And if you can understand what causes the brain to lead people into these cognitive traps, you’re better placed to avoid them.

Common Cognitive Biases:

• The Confirmation Bias
• The Hindsight Bias
• The Anchoring Bias
• The Availability Heuristic
• In-group Bias
• Framing Effect
• Cognitive Dissonance

The Neuroscience of Conspiracy Theories

Professor Włodzisław Duch heads the Department of Informatics at Nicolaus Copernicus University. In 2021, he published a paper on the subject of conspiracy theories in the journal “Patterns.”

His paper, titled “Memetics and Neural Models of Conspiracy Theories,” looks at how neurodynamics can help people understand how memes are created. It then looks at how distorted associations may alter memes, leading to a change of worldview or conspiratorial thinking.

Memeplexes

The concept of memes first appeared in a 1976 book titled The Selfish Gene by evolutionary biologist Professor Richard Dawkins. In the book, Dawkins suggests that genes and beliefs (memes) may evolve under similar pressures. Much like a gene, a meme may self-replicate and evolve when competing memes come into contact. A culture could be considered a group of memes, or a memeplex.

In neurodynamics, a meme is a quasi-stable associative memory attractor state. That’s a fancy way of saying an idea that sucks in related ideas. This mechanism allows new ideas to be integrated into your memory if they fit with your current worldview.

A meme is really a cluster of neurons. It’ll add bits of information that are associated with it. Whereas information which isn’t associated with the neural cluster is likely to be ignored. As such, people absorb information that confirms what they already believe.

In other words, frequently activated neuron clusters (memes) are more easily replicated.

According to Professor Duch, conspiracy theories are characterized by “numerous strong memes, with many neurons encoding information that has never been presented, forming distorted associations between facts”.

Rapid Freezing of High Neuroplasticity (RFHN)

Heightened emotions can lead to temporary increases in neuroplasticity. Neuroplasticity allows the brain to form synaptic pathways, or in other words, to create memories. That’s why we tend to forget ordinary things and remember surprising events.

Increased neuroplasticity followed by rapid freezing can lead to memes with greater attraction basins. Memes act like a whale’s mouth opening on a large shoal of fish, where the vital parts are consumed while the salt is filtered out.

But following heightened emotional states, the gaps in the filter widen, allowing accidental patterns to get through. This can destabilize neural clusters, leading to a change in worldview or the formation of a conspiracy theory.

In these heightened states, the brain may accept a simple answer for a complex problem, and rapid freezing of neuroplasticity locks that simple answer into place.

Once the new conspiracy memes have taken hold, they’ll continue to gather information like a whale, reinforcing the meme while rejecting contradictory information.

Professor Duch explains, “Once a set of distorted memory states is entrenched it becomes a powerful force, attracting and distorting all information that has some associations with these states, creating even broader basins of attractors. Encoding of information in this way enhances the memeplex and is one of the reasons why conspiracy theories are so persistent.”

How to Avoid a Conspiracy Theory

The Watergate Scandal of 1972 famously proved that political conspiracies do sometimes exist. However, the cognitive process by which a person comes to believe a conspiracy theory is the point of discussion.

When competing explanations exist, the explanation that makes the least assumptions should be favored. That’s the logical process defined by Occam’s Razor.

The problem, as described by Professor Duch, is that associative attractions lead people to believe that their ideas fit all the facts. To compound matters, instead of following the scientific method of disproving a theory, some people may actively seek information that confirms their presupposition.

Short periods of learning during a state of emotional arousal, followed by the rapid freezing of neuroplasticity, can lock bad answers into place.

This mechanism doesn’t only apply to world events. It can also affect your decisions at home or at work. And the first step toward avoiding a cognitive trap is to recognise that it exists.

“Thus the best recipe for reality distortion is strong and rather persistent emotional arousal, uncertainty of information, gossip and suspicions, followed by a tragic end leading to depression. The system is left with memories of gossips frozen in its associative memory. All future information related to the event will be associated and interpreted in view of what has been memorized at that period, setting foundations for conspiracy theory.” — Memetics and Neural Models of Conspiracy Theories (2001)

Ideas for Avoiding the Conspiracy Trap:

• Take caution of what you learn while in states of emotional arousal
• Expeditiously collect as much data as you can regarding a problem
• Avoid basing conclusions on uncertain or scant evidence
• Adopt a falsification mindset

The Falsification Mindset

Falsification is a powerful tool in science that was first introduced by Karl Popper in 1934. His book, The Logic of Scientific Discovery explains that to be a viable theory, it must be testable. In other words, there must be a credible way of disproving your theory. The claim “there are aliens living inside black holes” is unfalsifiable, as it’s not possible to look inside black holes. On the other hand, the claim “all boxes in the warehouse are full” is falsifiable. You can examine the boxes until you find one that’s not full, effectively falsifying the claim.

In brief, presenting evidence to support your theory isn’t enough. In addition, you must be able to describe a means by which your theory could be disproven.

A practical step is to write down every belief you hold about the way you run your business. They could be vague or specific. For example, “my supervisor is a monster”, “the customer is always right”, or “flooding social media is a good marketing strategy”.

Next to these axioms, write down what it would take to disprove them. This mental exercise is crucial for three reasons. Firstly, it’ll help you to fully form your own ideas. Secondly, it’ll prove a willingness to change your mind. And thirdly, it’ll hold you to change your position in the light of new evidence.

Conclusion: Don’t Rely on Gut Instinct

It’s important to remember that good decision-making is always the result of hard work and not gut instinct. According to research by Biotiful, around three-quarters of British people rely on gut instincts when making big decisions. And a 2003 survey conducted by executive search firm Christian & Timbers revealed that 45% of corporate executives rely on instincts instead of facts while running their businesses.

However, research shows that biases can exist at the subconscious level. And these biases inform our instincts. As these biases exist subconsciously, conscious and practical steps will be needed to avoid the traps and improve our decision-making.

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