How I became a Predictive, Analytical Futurist — Part 1

It all started with game theory

The Greek philosopher Socrates stated that “The unexamined life is not worth living.”

Many people have never heard this quote and if they did, it would not be of concern or of interest to them. They are perfectly content to live their lives unexamined.

These folks eat, sleep, go to a house of worship, their job, watch television, play video games, marry, have kids and do what is generally viewed by society as living normal lives. They will experience ups and downs as we all do in life but they will survive developing strategies throughout their lives to do so. They are essentially content to live pedestrian lives and may even prosper by doing so. If I was a person inclined to envy I might be envious of them. Living life without thinking about what “Is” and why and how what “Is” is can be a blessing. Sadly or fortunately I am not wired in this way. I need to ask about truth, love, God, etc. The search for meaning is something that drives me and always has.

I am a statistically based, Bayesian, predictive forecasting futurist I know that is a mouthful. Still there is no shorter, and more descriptive way of presenting what it is that I do.

When I tell people what I do, at some social event, I can see their eyes glaze over. All except, the special person who understand what I do, “gets it immediately.” They are fascinated by the very idea of it and are likely to ask. “How accurate are you at this?”

I usually answer honestly and without arrogance, “Very!”

Here then, is a series of stories, of how I went from being a kid in the Bronx who failed math to become a rational, deductive, statistically accurate, and deeply intuitive soothsayer.

If you are one of those individuals that are always asking questions…is always exploring the meaning of things while at the same time developing strategies to survive and even prosper then you may have the essentials for becoming a skilled Predictive, Analytical Futurist

How it all started

I have always had the heart of a healer. Because of good parenting by an unconventional mother and father I became an adult without ever being arrested, institutionalized, or sent to special education classes and at an early age was thinking about energy, angels, healing, chi and herbs.

I was a professional health and wellness coach from 1972 -2005. Everything changed in 2005. I began watching a television police drama “Numb3rs”. The series revolved around an FBI agent and his mathematical genius brother. These two brothers would solve crimes by using insights based on the mathematician brothers’ personal knowledge and by integrating mathematical models based on available information about the crime and the criminals. In addition to these basic characters was the mathematician’s friend and former mentor, who was a theoretical physicist and cosmologist, the father of the two main characters who is a former urban planner, a behavior specialist, a lawyer, a various other scientists and social scientists.

One of the key elements of the show was that the characters particularly Charlie, the mathematician brother would describe various mathematical theories. He might mention Zero Sum Games, or Cognitive Emergence Theory. This presentation of actual mathematical theories by name on the show with the equations written out on chalkboards caught my attention. I could see in a way that was never shown to me in High School, (or more likely it was and I wasn’t paying attention) how mathematics is applicable not just to solving crimes but to solving problems in everyday life. The people who created this show were serious about wanting this interest to peak in the viewers of the show and it certainly had happened to me. They Often, I later learned, named temporary characters on the show after famous mathematicians.

During the commercial breaks on “Numb3rs” I would search the internet for various mathematical concepts that had been mentioned on the show.

By doing this I have learned two key things.

1. Math is an essential element of virtually every aspect of ever day life including healing and wellness. It is used to make a milkshake, tell time, handle money, create herbal formulas, read cues in influencing skills and to predict the weather.

2. To understand and use math it is not required that one understand what are for many of us intimidating formulas and equations.

Logic

Anytime you think logically or rationally you are thinking mathematically. Common sense is a form of mathematics and of course so much of holistic health is common sense. I became enamored with the idea that virtually every organized system of living and healing could be defined and named. I began spending hours daily researching various mathematical ideas, their application to daily life, and the lives of those who had created these organized and named these ideas.

One of the mathematical concepts that were often mentioned on the show was Game Theory, the idea that mathematical concepts or systems could be used to explain why and how individuals and organizations strategize, i.e. make decisions when one person (or more than one other person) might also affect the outcome of the decision. This was further fascinating to me since as a fairly unconventional person this was what I had been doing most of my life. I had never thought of it in that way but Game Theory had been my tool for survival.

A Breakthrough

During this period of watching “Numb3rs”my wife Lilia and I were invited to a Thanksgiving Dinner. Sitting next to me were two elderly physicists. A husband and wife, they were a bright, lively couple, in their late 80s. The conversation went from subject to subject including the movie “A Beautiful Mind” about John Nash, who developed important ideas related to Game Theory and for this was awarded the Nobel Prize. We also spoke about Richard Feynman the Noble Prize Winning American physicist who was known not only for his for his work in quantum mechanics but also for the vibrant, enthusiastic, adventurous and spirited way he lived his life.

It turned out that the couple had known Nash during their professional years and they had both worked on projects with Feynman. Slightly embarrassed I mentioned that as poor a math student as I had been in school I was fascinated by Game Theory as well as practical math in general and I described some of the research I had been doing.

I was surprised when he asked me, “So have you come up with any ideas of how to apply this information?” I answered “Yes, I have?”

I then began to explain an idea I had developed on leveraging the value of human qualities like time, information, influence, clarity of thought so that one could know when the value of one of these was at its highest or lowest and use them effectively to solve a problem or maximize a particular situation. I was shocked at his interest. He asked me many questions, some of which I could answer and others requiring more study and research here.

To be continued…

You may also enjoy this story @colefp

Here is one I wrote while back at @AskLewis

The article you have just read is an excerpt from my Module on How to achieve Manifestation and Individual Success in my online Course “The Self Improvement Lifestyle”.

Author: Lewis Harrison is an Independent Scholar and a Results-Oriented Success Coach, with a passion for knowledge, personal development, self-improvement, creativity, innovation, and problem-solving. You can read all of his Medium stories at [email protected].

For a decade, Lewis was the host of a humor-based Q & A talk show on NPR (National Public Radio) affiliated WIOX FM in NY.