How Democrats Can Win in 2022

Messaging versus policy isn’t an “either/or” proposition

The Democratic Party appears to be having a collective freakout over how to hold onto its power ahead of the 2022 midterm cycle. Whether it’s on Medium or in the mainstream press…every other day, it feels like I’m reading an umpteenth gloom-’n-doom piece about how Democrats will “most likely” lose one or both chambers of Congress next year.

Voter suppression laws. Partisan gerrymandering. Lethargy from progressives. Blind hatred from rabid right-wingers. Conspiracy theories that brainwash low-info voters. More bad slogans. Very few anticipated successes from the Biden/Harris administration. The PACs are plotting. Joe Manchin is stalling. Susan Collins is still “concerned”…

It’s like dystopian porn for the punditry class.

Cynics point to history. In the post-Nixon era, the president’s party has only gained seats in a midterm election on three occasions: Democrats picked up five House seats in 1998, when Bill Clinton was embroiled in Monicagate. Republicans picked up eight House seats and three Senate seats in 2002, when the GOP weaponized 9/11 in its favor. Although Democrats swept 41 House seats during the anti-Trump fervor of 2018, Republicans flipped four Senate seats (for a net-gain of two) that same year.

In light of these stats, such alarm bells are understandable. I always say if there’s one thing the Democratic Party is really good at, it’s losing downticket races. In modern history, this is due to a combination of bad messaging, flawed policy planks, and self-fulfilling prophecies — such as the current one floating around whereupon Democrats are “doomed” in 2022.

But what if this so-called conventional wisdom could be turned upside-down? What if, rather than accepting a fatalistic prognostication from Carnac’s crystal ball, Democrats developed a smart, coordinated, forward-thinking approach to retaining their current seats…and possibly even expanding them, a little bit?

If I might be so bold and presumptuous, allow me to offer up some strategies and guideposts that could prevent the McCarthy/McConnell culture of obstructionism from becoming even more ghoulish:

Anticipation of Incorrect Polling

Regional and national polls in 2020 showed Democratic candidates overperforming well beyond what the actual Election Day returns ended up being. Clearly, the campaigns for 2022 will rethink their methods rather than hoping this was an aberration. Did Donald Trump’s presence at the top of the ticket lend extra (unanticipated) momentum to Republican incumbents and challengers running at the congressional and state levels?

Without having precognitive 2022 midterm results to juxtapose against the 2020 election numbers, there’s only one rule-of-thumb Democrats can really rely on here. Every Democratic candidate, incumbent or challenger, should run as though they are 10 to 20 points behind…even if polling indicates otherwise. Best-case scenario: Democrats overperform. Worst-case scenario: they give it everything they have to keep from underperforming.

Holding “Unity Rallies”

Will the pandemic be less present in our daily lives by October 2022? If so, I’d encourage Democrats to do what they ideally should have done in 2020: hold regional “caravan”-style Unity Rallies, jointly headlined by nominees and their celebrity supporters who have goodwill amongst voters back in those celebrities’ home states. These should be public figures known for their down-to-earth reputations and without track records of embarrassing gaffes. Taylor Swift and Will Smith in Pennsylvania. Angelica Ross and Tony Shalhoub in Wisconsin. Eric Church and Kelli Pickler in North Carolina. Trisha Yearwood and Tyler Perry in Georgia. Noah Centineo and Victoria Justice in Florida. Grant Hill and Greyson Chance in Texas. Emma Stone and Heather Morris in Arizona. Just a few examples.

This could be done under the moniker of “Unity 2022.” By “unity,” I’m broadly referring to any person who opposes Mitch McConnell’s shady, two-faced reign. As we saw, Republicans outright ignored COVID-19 protocol by holding MAGA-fueled “superspreader” rallies across the nation — while Democrats were busy practicing safety precautions to protect Americans’ lives. But, assuming that 2022 is different, Democrats need to go full-tilt with this blitz. And, if the pandemic is still with us — the Democratic Party should have a stronger and more widespread network of cyber-activism ready to go, to reach homebound folks. Voters can only tolerate being inundated with so many emails, texts, and robocalls soliciting money.

Maximizing Voter Turnout

In conjunction with Unity Rallies, politicians need to go after the youth vote hard. Political scientists rationalize how campaigns never massively court Generation Y (“Millennials”) or Generation Z (“Zoomers” or “Centennials”) because young people rarely turn out to vote en masse. Unfortunately for these apologists, every vote counts — especially when you’re a Democratic candidate running in a competitive midterm.

Bring your platforms straight to us. Student debt forgiveness for low-income borrowers. Legalization of marijuana. Accessible and widespread green jobs. A public health care option designed for people under the age of 50. Cross-racial and cross-generational entrepreneurship.

Don’t Leave Rural America Behind

In addition to turning out the youth vote, Democrats absolutely must make inroads throughout rural parts of the country. Granted, nobody expects some magical, instantaneous red-to-blue shift to occur. But in an election cycle where every vote literally does count…why not accumulate as many of them as possible from folks in “flyover country” who feel overlooked? If just 150,000 more rural or suburban voters had been turned out in each of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2016, or Florida and Missouri in 2018 — then Katie McGinty, Russ Feingold, Bill Nelson, and Claire McCaskill would all be sitting in the U.S. Senate right now.

My proposed blueprint for agri-sustainability would be a smart platform from which House and Senate candidates could find enticing components to offer their present/future constituents. Along with food security overlapping into every major political issue on the table (pun intended!), rural broadband and agricultural infrastructure are other priorities relevant to the Rust Belt, Great Plains, and Sun Belt.

Merging Centrism with Progressivism

It’s undeniable that ideological rifts exist between centrists and progressives within (and outside of) the Democratic Party. While there can never be 100% consensus, how can those divides be realistically bridged?

For starters, let’s look at limited areas of legislation where moderates, and even some conservatives, would get on the same page as liberals and progressives. An expanded Medicare opt-in. Smarter utilization of the defense budget. Massive relief and recovery programs targeted narrowly at small businesses hit by the pandemic, cutting through the SBA’s red tape. Cracking down on crony capitalism. Fighting corruption in public systems. Comprehensive immigration reform (and finally putting to rest the conservative talking-point of “open borders”). Standing with Latino populations to vocally oppose the governmental philosophies of Colombia, Venezuela, and Cuba.

Articulate these policy solutions, and you’ve got a trajectory for progress.

Combating Systemic Racism

#PoliceAccountability would have been a much more effective slogan than #DefundThePolice. Prove me wrong, here? We all know that systemic racism seeks to uphold white supremacy in law enforcement, housing, education, and many other systems. So let’s communicate very clearly what needs to change so that Black, Indigenous, Latino/Hispanic, and APIDA citizens (or residents) will enjoy the same humane treatment and protections as their Caucasian counterparts.

Let’s start with the platform of “Campaign Zero.” I dare anyone to look at these policy planks constructed by Black Lives Matter and claim that any of it is remotely unreasonable. Admittedly, ending the social and cultural forms of racism that exist will require honest conversations and forging cross-racial relationships. Those actions can’t be legislated…but what *can* be enforced is fair treatment within our public institutions as well as innovative opportunities to close the racial wealth gap.

Campaigning in 2022 Like it’s 2002

Fourteen months after the 9/11 attacks, the Republican Party did something unprecedented: they used national security as a cudgel against Democratic candidates up-and-down the ballot. Who could forget the despicable ads that showed Max Cleland’s face morphing into that of Osama bin Laden?

Well, coronavirus is today’s 9/11. The GOP has created a public health menace with deflections, excuses, and outright lies about the necessity of combating COVID-19. Democrats need to blast every single GOP officeholder who has downplayed the pandemic risks or used hypocrisy to legislate public health recklessness (*cough!* DeSantis *cough!*). Rip them apart for their past statements and actions that put our frontline workers and vulnerable populations at even greater risk.

Every. Single. One. Of. Them.

Channeling Stacey Abrams

Nobody thought Raphael Warnock or Jon Ossoff would win the runoff elections in Georgia…until they did. This was due, in no small part, to the efforts of Stacey Abrams and her Fair Fight machine that organized tirelessly across The Peach State. If filibuster reform and nonpartisan redistricting are pipe dreams between now and November 8, 2022 — an old-fashioned principle is going to have to elbow its way to the surface: common sense.

Abrams herself might be busy running for Governor of Georgia, seeking a rematch against Brian Kemp. So the onus is on the rest of us to pick up that torch and expand the Fair Fight apparatus to places like North Carolina, Texas, and Arizona. For every voter suppression law anywhere — mobilize, turn out entire families, and put a lampshade on any obscure GOP-driven statutes that have given local officials the power to overturn election results on a whim.

Make it sexy to participate in a midterm, for a change!

And finally…

Confidence, Conviction, Collaboration

From my vantage point: many Democratic incumbents, challengers, pundits, and consultants often come off as mealy-mouthed and, quite frankly, wimpy.

Yes, they need more effective messages. Yes, they need to spruce up their policies for implementation and feasibility. But, moreover, when Democratic candidates are promoting a good idea, they need to speak with congenial authority and resolute enthusiasm. They need to be ready to confront every red herring or whataboutism with a clear, straightforward rebuttal. If a candidate is unable to do this, she or he shouldn’t be running for office.

Full disclosure: I’m not a Democrat, and I don’t have any personal affection for their party. I’m a centrist Independent who self-identifies that way in search of well-balanced, multifaceted solutions to complex problems. My political identity per se doesn’t make me inherently better or worse than anybody else. That being said: at this specific juncture in time, the Democratic Party offers the only reasonable alternative to the cult-like power grab being orchestrated by the GOP. Will that change? I don’t know — check back with me in 2024.

Every American should want to see the Biden/Harris administration implement successful plans…the same way we should have wanted the Trump/Pence administration to do so. When the White House succeeds, we all succeed. But 2022 cannot be a referendum on Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. First, that isn’t exciting or mappable. Secondly, given how there’s such a razor-thin divide in Congress, these next midterms must be a reckoning with the need for our federal government’s self-improvement and honest dialogue on behalf of Americans.

“Demand Better!” should be the Democrats’ mantra for 2022. *NOT* the canned condescension of…

“Be grateful that we helped you get rid of Trump. Vote for us.”