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Abstract

his shot, Chicago Bulls took a time out and on the Jumbotron (yes, I googled the term) a message appeared: “Miller Killer!”.And from that moment, ladies and gentlemen, I fell in love with the NBA.And now ~25 years later I have a son, who is 9 years old (just like I was in that special moment). He is training hard to become a basketball player and one night before going to sleep, he asked me: “Hey Dad, but what are the odds of playing in the NBA?”.This question left me no other choice but to search for an answer.<h2 id="fe59">So what are the odds?</h2>First of all, I want to mention some obvious truth — it is impossible to measure these odds precisely, because there are a lot of factors to consider: like natural talent, work ethics, coaches, right training techniques, even luck, etc.It is similar to a concept of 10,000 hours — it is not a strict rule, but rather a guideline.But anyway, let’s try to do the math here. Or if you are bored with numbers you can <a href="#f43c">skip right away to the sum up</a>.<h2 id="ba28">Research, numbers, and the math</h2>After doing a little research, I have found <a href="https://www.ncaa.org/sports/2015/3/6/men-s-basketball-probability-of-competing-beyond-high-school.aspx">this page</a> from NCAA and I think it suggests the best answer possible. Ready?In the U.S. there are ~540,769 kids who play basketball at the High School level.Out of those half a million+ kids only 18,816 (~3.47%) reach some level of NCAA basketball:<ul><li>~1.0% goes to D1 (around ~5,407 players);</li><li>~1.0% goes to D2;</li><li>~1.47% goes to D3.</li></ul>According to that NCAA page, the vast majority (~85%) of NBA players have D1 experience. Other ~15% should include international, NCAA D2-D3, or other players with exceptional success stories. Let’s focus on those ~85%.Now let’s find out an estimate of how many players with D1 experience are there in the NBA.<a href="https://hoopshype.com/salaries/players/2022-2023/">HoopsHype</a> shows that last season 573 players played in the NBA. So I click 573 × 0.85 on the calculator and get ~487 players.From this, we can assume that there is a ~9% chance to go from D1 to NBA at some point in the car

Options

eer (487 ÷ 5407).<h2 id="f43c">Sum up</h2>If my calculations and assumptions were correct AND if you play basketball at the High School level, then:<ul><li>The odds of playing at least one game in the NBA throughout your whole career are 1 in 1111 or 0.09%. It means that you have to be absolutely the best out of 1111 statistical High School players. Crazy!</li><li>To play in NCAA D1 and then to be drafted in the NBA the chances are even slimmer - it’s 0.012% or 1 in ~8325. Note: It is worth mentioning that being drafted in the NBA does not 100% guarantee that you will actually play in the NBA (although it’s very likely).</li><li>I won’t even try to calculate the odds of being an all-star, but I guess it is something like 1 in 100,000 or even less.</li></ul>These are my rough estimates, my two cents, but I think this is the closest you can get to the harsh reality.<h2 id="0267">My response to my son</h2>So yeah, as you can see the chances are very very slim. But how to say it to my son?Recently I’ve been reading a book by <a href="undefined">Mark Manson</a>, and it inspired me in some way. So this was my response:Dear Son,I won’t lie to you. To sum up, the chances are very slim. Nearly impossible.You see, most people focus on the shininess and glory of the NBA, but only a few realize how much suffering is involved along the road.And it’s with every big goal in life, by the way.You have to prepare to suffer inner doubts, injuries, missed shots, bad decisions by refs and teammates, yells by the coach, and many many more bad things.But if despite those bad things you will stay motivated and positive, will not lose your ability to train hard, work a lot, and dream a lot — you can make it. That’s the only way.Suffering will not guarantee you a place in the NBA, but without it, it’s impossible.So prepare to enjoy the suffering and then your destiny will do the rest.That was my story and thanks for reading it! Happy upcoming NBA season!And if you like what I am doing, don’t forget to <a href="https://medium.com/@strangecash/subscribe">subscribe</a> to follow my journey!</article></body>

Hey Dad! What Are the Odds of Playing in The NBA?

It’s very unlikely. But let’s do the math…

Photo by Dean Bennett on Unsplash (slightly edited by the author)

Quick introduction

Let’s start this story with a little confession from me…

A long long time ago I was born in the center of Europe, in a little country called Lithuania.

Believe it or not but most of the time, Lithuanians are born with a basketball ball in their hands. Seriously. And I was no exception to that.

In other words, usually, Lithuanians are crazy about basketball — it is like a religion for us.

Of course, our primary focus is the Euroleague, ACB, and other local tournaments. But the NBA has a special part in our hearts and souls. Well, at least in mine.

For me, that magic moment with the NBA happened when I was 9 years old.

In the middle of that night (actually, it was something like 5 AM in the morning because of the time difference) I was amazed watching my first NBA game — it was Jordan’s Chicago Bulls vs Miller’s Indiana Pacers. A few seconds were left on the clock and then this happened:

Oh my god! I shouted so loud that probably everybody in my city woke up.

After this shot, Chicago Bulls took a time out and on the Jumbotron (yes, I googled the term) a message appeared: “Miller Killer!”.

And from that moment, ladies and gentlemen, I fell in love with the NBA.

And now ~25 years later I have a son, who is 9 years old (just like I was in that special moment). He is training hard to become a basketball player and one night before going to sleep, he asked me: “Hey Dad, but what are the odds of playing in the NBA?”.

This question left me no other choice but to search for an answer.

So what are the odds?

First of all, I want to mention some obvious truth — it is impossible to measure these odds precisely, because there are a lot of factors to consider: like natural talent, work ethics, coaches, right training techniques, even luck, etc.

It is similar to a concept of 10,000 hours — it is not a strict rule, but rather a guideline.

But anyway, let’s try to do the math here. Or if you are bored with numbers you can skip right away to the sum up.

Research, numbers, and the math

After doing a little research, I have found this page from NCAA and I think it suggests the best answer possible. Ready?

In the U.S. there are ~540,769 kids who play basketball at the High School level.

Out of those half a million+ kids only 18,816 (~3.47%) reach some level of NCAA basketball:

~1.0% goes to D1 (around ~5,407 players);
~1.0% goes to D2;
~1.47% goes to D3.

According to that NCAA page, the vast majority (~85%) of NBA players have D1 experience. Other ~15% should include international, NCAA D2-D3, or other players with exceptional success stories. Let’s focus on those ~85%.

Now let’s find out an estimate of how many players with D1 experience are there in the NBA.

HoopsHype shows that last season 573 players played in the NBA. So I click 573 × 0.85 on the calculator and get ~487 players.

From this, we can assume that there is a ~9% chance to go from D1 to NBA at some point in the career (487 ÷ 5407).

Sum up

If my calculations and assumptions were correct AND if you play basketball at the High School level, then:

The odds of playing at least one game in the NBA throughout your whole career are 1 in 1111 or 0.09%. It means that you have to be absolutely the best out of 1111 statistical High School players. Crazy!
To play in NCAA D1 and then to be drafted in the NBA the chances are even slimmer - it’s 0.012% or 1 in ~8325. Note: It is worth mentioning that being drafted in the NBA does not 100% guarantee that you will actually play in the NBA (although it’s very likely).
I won’t even try to calculate the odds of being an all-star, but I guess it is something like 1 in 100,000 or even less.

These are my rough estimates, my two cents, but I think this is the closest you can get to the harsh reality.

My response to my son

So yeah, as you can see the chances are very very slim. But how to say it to my son?

Recently I’ve been reading a book by Mark Manson, and it inspired me in some way. So this was my response:

Dear Son,

I won’t lie to you. To sum up, the chances are very slim. Nearly impossible.

You see, most people focus on the shininess and glory of the NBA, but only a few realize how much suffering is involved along the road.

And it’s with every big goal in life, by the way.

You have to prepare to suffer inner doubts, injuries, missed shots, bad decisions by refs and teammates, yells by the coach, and many many more bad things.

But if despite those bad things you will stay motivated and positive, will not lose your ability to train hard, work a lot, and dream a lot — you can make it. That’s the only way.

Suffering will not guarantee you a place in the NBA, but without it, it’s impossible.

So prepare to enjoy the suffering and then your destiny will do the rest.

That was my story and thanks for reading it! Happy upcoming NBA season!

And if you like what I am doing, don’t forget to subscribe to follow my journey!