Here’s Who Is Actually Winning The Brutal War In Ukraine
You would have never guessed it
Wars have no winners. They bring death, desperation, and misery to all involved. They bring out the dark side in all of us. Yet, for thousands of years of human evolution, men have fought wars. To protect, to expand, for a multitude of reasons, we as a species have sought conquest.
Why? If there’s a definite loss for all involved, why have we?
Every Catastrophe brings with it an opportunity.
An opportunity to profit, to further one’s interest. At an undignified loss for others involved.
The War in Ukraine has a clear winner and it’s not who you think it is.
The Dragon Lurking in the Shadows
The victor cannot be Ukraine, which has had to bear the unfortunate cost in terms of loss of life and livelihoods, that no number of successful counteroffensives can pay for.
It surely isn’t Russia, which has also had extraordinarily high military and economic losses with little to show for it.
It’s China.
China benefits from the War in Ukraine in every possible way, politically.
The Middle Kingdom has been lurking in the shadows of the war, seizing every opportunity it can, to further its influence and consolidate its position in Eurasia.
From Xinjiang to the Taiwan Strait. China has had important gains and lessons learned from the War in Ukraine.
A Relationship With No Limits
Russia and China declared a relationship that has no limits in early February before the Russian Invasion or ‘Special Military Operation’ (depending on which side of the iron curtain you find yourself to be on.)
But is that really the case?
The Russo-Chinese relationship today is far from that of equal partners in today’s world order. The Chinese loom large in the relationship, courtesy of their deep pockets.
The War has exacerbated this further.
A weakened and isolated Russia will be more reliant on China, and thus more susceptible to Chinese Influence. This is undoubtedly a win for China as it gives China access to a wider market, and furthers its interest in Central Asia and Eastern Europe as well.
The Limelight has Shifted
How much do you read about the situation in Xinjiang, or the repercussions of the Hong Kong Protests in the News today?
Little to none.
The media spotlight, as well as the attention of Western Diplomacy, has shifted to the Crisis unfolding in Ukraine.
This eases ruffled feathers in the Forbidden City, as China can let its guard down and its wolf warrior diplomacy a relief.
The focus on issues in China, and their consequences for the remaining world, have all faded to the background. The Indo-Pacific has been relegated to the ends as Europe rallies under the NATO Banner.
The Rise of the Renminbi
When the trade war loomed large over China and the focus was on the abuses of the Chinese Communist Party on the mainland, Foreign Investment was hurt and narrowed. The reversal of the limelight, will thus, undoubtedly help China.
With major western corporations pulling the plug on operations in Russia, all of that money and investment must go somewhere.
It doesn't take a prodigy to guess where. While some of it will undoubtedly go to South Asia, a huge chunk of it is headed to China.
Recently, Saudi Arabia agreed to receive payments in the Renminbi for Oil. There is also the rise of an alternative international payment mechanisms backed by the likes of China and Russia that are gathering steam.
Sanctions aren’t a One-Trick-Pony
The West needs China. Probably more than they think they do, due to their distorted focus on Russia.
The West wants China to comply with the sanctions regime instituted by the U.S and its allies on Russia. You can’t simply ignore the second largest economy in the world.
And there are signs that China might already be complying with some of the sanctions, as it does far more trade with the EU and the U.S than it has ever done with Russia.
This pressures the western world to pay more heed to China and could offer China a negotiating advantage in free trade agreements with the EU and U.K.
The Ultimate Litmus Test
The War in Ukraine has proven to be the ultimate litmus test for Chinese Leadership, about how the west would react, should the People’s Republic seek forceful reunification with Taiwan.
They have had a good idea about the supposed western reaction, right from not sending active troops, and having covert military aid and economic weapons of mass destruction rule the roost instead.
While the scenario isn’t exactly the same, it bears noting for China, the public and diplomatic reaction of the western world toward such action.
The Opportunist Wins The War Without Losing A Soldier
The People’s Republic has played its cards right. With the tragedy taking place in Ukraine, the Chinese have sought to increase their influence and consolidate their interests in an incredulous manner.
This War has a Winner.
It’s the man in Peking.
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