Google Gemini Will Take Over The AI Market From GPT— But Not Right Now.

I'm still using and prefer GPT-4, But it's only a matter of time.

Google wastes products, which frankly bothers me. Let's start by acknowledging that. There are many products that went down the drain. Off the top of my head:

• Google Glasses
• Google+
• Google Allo

The actual list probably has tens of products. Not only that, but some of their current products need major improvement.

• I was in their HQ recently, and the audience mentioned that Google Photos needed major changes.
• Bard is a catastrophically designed product that acts as a statement.

Now, keeping all of that in mind, let me tell you why Google, with its new Gemini, is going to take over the AI market.

• Yes, they published a "staged" fake video of Gemini that got over 1m views.
• Yes, it's not as good as GPT-4.

Yet, the market is all about the future. So let's talk about that.

Google released "Gemini" — their GPT-4 Alternative that is not as good as GPT-4.

It's always a matter of perspective. Try to ask an employee at Google vs one at Microsoft who'll be dominating the AI market in the future.

Well, they can't actually say the other company, or they'll probably get laid off. But putting this aside, a team member usually works believing that they're a part of something bigger. So yes, they'll both choose their own companies.

Go back in time. If I had told you that Tesla is going to control the EV market, would you have believed me? Let me answer that for you — no.

Actually, I wouldn't have believed me either.

PS — 96% of my time is invested in my newsletter (1.4m views and 43k readers). Here's a link if you wish to become part of my network.

However, the future of the business world is based on strategies and moves rather than individual feelings.

So, if you're in love with GPT, this won't matter to the market. The market cares about finding the right product at the right time.

I personally use GPT-4 in my startup and believe it's top-notch at the moment. But Google releasing Gemini changed the game a bit.

The Aloof Consumer

Recently, I was analyzing Microsoft and how they're eradicating startups with their replacement products.

For example, they would create Teams, which is half as good as Slack, and get a larger market share.

They use the strategy of bundling — "We'll give you something almost as good as Slack in your already paid package. So you don't need to pay for Slack."

• Some people would be outraged, refuse, and say that they love Slack.
• Others would try it out and judge for themselves.
• But the majority of people are what I call the "aloof consumer," who would probably say, "Umm, okay."

Now, these "aloof consumers" control the market. If you provide them with an alternative to SalesForce that is 90% as good, they'll just go for it.

Let me ask you this — what does the aloof consumer think of GPT?

I'll have to answer because you can't really collaborate live on this article (that would be cool, though.)

• They think GPT is amazing because it's a new product of its kind.
• Some of them are scared by it.
• Many of them are just using it to make life easier.

But now, let's ask a more specific question — what would the aloof consumer think of a GPT alternative?

Gemini? Bard? Claude? Grok?

Me: "Hello, Mr. Aloof; welcome to my article. Simple question — what generative AI do you use?"

Mr. Aloof: “Oh, ChatGPT.”

Me: "What about Claude?"

Mr. Aloof: "What is that?"

Me: "It's similar. Okay, never mind. What about Google Bard or Elon Musk's Grok?"

Mr. Aloof: "Elon Musk, cool. I haven't heard of those."

Me: "What if I tell you that Grok is more honest?"

Mr. Aloof: "Oh, I'll definitely use Grok then."

Me: "But Bard is the cheapest."

Mr. Aloof: "Umm, then I should use Bard I guess."

Me: "I'll give you $10 to use my generative AI."

Mr. Aloof: "Deal."

Okay, I think I just sarcastically undermined the majority of the globe. But it was for the sake of comedy, so it’s alright (I know.)

The keyword is use case.

• A car is beneficial because it has a use case of transferring people.
• People would pay more for a plane because it's faster.

GPT is digging its roots into everything and creating amazing use cases. But it's not an urgent daily need at the moment in everyone's life.

• The aloof consumer does not open up GPT first thing in the morning.
• The aloof consumer has breakfast (probably.)
• The aloof consumer uses Google Search to find what they're looking for, including "ChatGPT Prompts."

They're the gatekeepers at this stage, and they have something close to GPT-4.

They'll integrate it into all their products, like Microsoft. Then, they'll use their influence to push the aloof consumer to use Gemini.

Then, when the aloof consumer is using Gemini, you, the non-aloof consumer, will start to think of using Gemini as well.

At that moment, they'll gain the market share they've been wanting for a long time. But wait, it won't be just black or white.

It's not going to be either Gemini or nothing.

Again, it isn't either Tesla or nothing in the EV market. Yet, almost every EV you see is a Tesla.

The tech market is usually one that doesn't allow many players to co-exist. There's always one word that comes to your mind when I say things like:

• EV (Tesla)
• OS (Windows)
• Smartphone (iPhone)

The AI market will be distributed. Some will use GPT; others will use Grok. But there will be a dominant player. That player is whoever has the best use case. Google, at the moment, is in quite a good position.

That's my take on Google Gemini. But let's make this an interactive article. What do you think of the AI market's direction? Do you think GPT, with Microsoft's support, already has strong roots in many of the platforms we use?

Write a comment, and let's start a fun discussion.

I'm AL, a business consultant in Zurich, Switzerland. I believe in the power of delivering value to you, the reader. Follow me on various social media platforms if you're interested in the value of my content.