Get Ready for the Mac mini Pro

Summary

The article discusses the potential release of a high-end Mac mini, termed the "Mac mini Pro," as a strategic addition to Apple's desktop lineup, positioned between the consumer-grade Mac mini and the professional-grade Mac Pro.

Abstract

The Mac product line is undergoing significant changes with the transition to Apple silicon chips, such as the M1. The article suggests that instead of a smaller Mac Pro, Apple should introduce a "Mac mini Pro" to fill the gap in their desktop offerings. This new model would cater to professionals who require more power than the standard Mac mini but do not need the extensive capabilities of the Mac Pro. The author argues that the thermal efficiency of Apple silicon chips, like the upcoming 3nm process, allows for a more powerful Mac mini without exceeding the chassis's thermal limits. The article also points out the market potential for a mid-range headless Mac, citing the popularity of the Mac mini's memory upgrade as evidence of demand for higher-performance compact desktops. A Mac mini Pro could be an attractive option for budget-conscious professionals and could be paired with a more affordable high-resolution display, potentially encouraging the release of such a display by Apple.

Opinions

The author believes that a "Mac Pro mini" would be an unviable product due to its compromised performance for high-end professionals and its high cost for low-end professionals.
The author suggests that the transition to Apple silicon removes previous thermal limitations imposed by Intel processors, paving the way for a more powerful Mac mini.
There is a perceived gap in Apple's product line for a mid-range, high-performance headless Mac, which a Mac mini Pro could fulfill.
The author implies that the introduction of a Mac mini Pro could stimulate the market for a more affordable professional-grade display, complementing the high-end Pro Display XDR.
The article expresses skepticism about the rumored smaller Mac Pro, questioning the strategy behind releasing a low-end version of Apple's most powerful computer.
The author posits that a Mac mini Pro would be a high-margin product for Apple, with minimal additional engineering and customer support costs, and would likely sell in larger quantities than a smaller Mac Pro.

A high-end Mac mini makes more sense than a small Mac Pro.

These are exciting times for the Mac. The first Apple silicon chip, the M1, powers the new MacBook Air, 13-inch MacBook Pro, and Mac mini. With Apple acknowledging that this is just the start of a two-year transition for the Mac, the rumor mill has been in overdrive, with MacRumors providing a roundup the day after the M1 Macs were announced:

14-inch MacBook Pro: In July, reputable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo forecasted that new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models with Apple Silicon and an all-new design will launch in the late second quarter or third quarter of 2021. Kuo has previously suggested that these notebooks may feature Mini-LED displays.

16-inch MacBook Pro: Earlier this month, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and Debby Wu reported that a new 16-inch MacBook Pro with Apple Silicon is in development, but the report did not provide a release timeframe. As mentioned above, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects a new 16-inch MacBook Pro with Apple Silicon and an all-new design to launch in the late second quarter or third quarter of 2021.

24-inch iMac: In June, reputable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo forecasted that Apple would launch a 24-inch iMac with an all-new design in the late fourth quarter of 2020 or early first quarter of 2021 at the earliest.

A smaller Mac Pro: Earlier this month, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and Debby Wu reported that Apple is developing a new Mac Pro that looks like the current design at about half the size. The report said it’s unclear if that Mac will replace the current Mac Pro or be released as an additional model.

Apple is Redesigning the 2019 Mac Pro?

The rumor that caught my eye is Bloomberg’s report that a new half-size Mac Pro is under development. It took Apple 2,182 days to deliver the 2019 Mac Pro and now, a year later, they’re either radically changing the design or adding a second model? Neither option makes much sense. Perhaps they’ve been forced to undergo a redesign with the switch to Apple silicon, but why would they add a low-end version of their high-end Mac?

Reasonably configured, the Mac Pro costs close to $20,000; go top-of-the-line and it’s over $60,000. A reasonably configured “Mac Pro mini” would likely still cost over $10,000. That’s a computer that’s too compromised for the high-end pro market, and too costly for the low-end pro market. How many of those is Apple going to sell? And unlike the existing Mac Pro, it doesn’t even function as a halo product.

I see your Mac Pro mini and Raise You a Mac mini Pro

Instead of a “Mac Pro mini”, it would make much more sense for Apple to add a “Mac mini Pro” to their desktop lineup. To make the case for this product, let’s look at some of the maximum power consumption and thermal output listings for Intel-based Macs from Apple support pages:

Mac mini (2018): 122 W and 417 BTU/h.

iMac (27-inch, 2020): 295W and 1007 BTU/h

iMac Pro (2017): 370W and 1262 BTU/h

Mac Pro (2019): 902 W and 3076 BTU/h

Clearly, one thing that prevented Apple from making more powerful Mac minis was Intel’s failure to produce high-end processors that could operate within the thermal limitations of the Mac mini chassis. That technical hurdle has been removed with Apple silicon, which runs at 39 W and 133 BTU/h in the Mac mini. And that’s with TSMC’s current 5nm process. The forthcoming 3nm process will deliver insanely more powerful SoCs while operating with lower power and thermals. But until then, the rumored more powerful 5nm M-series SoCs should have plenty of headroom in the current Mac mini chassis.

Filling in the Gaps

The base Mac mini costs $699, while the base Mac Pro costs $5,999. The only stand-alone display Apple sells is the Pro Display XDR, starting at $4,999 (without a stand). There’s a huge hole in the “headless” Mac lineup where a Mac mini Pro would fit perfectly. Apple already sells a $200 memory upgrade for the Mac mini that is only marginally more powerful than the base configuration and yet is wildly popular (two months after release, delivery dates are still 25 days out). That’s evidence enough that there’s a market for more powerful Mac minis.

A Mac mini Pro starting at $1,999 for a 12 core model, and $2,999 for a 16 core model could easily be paired with a new $1,999 5K display. Maybe the only thing holding Apple back from releasing a $2k monitor is the lack of a mid-range headless computer that could help justify the development expense.

With a Mac mini Pro, everyone wins. Pros on a budget get a lot more power at prices that don’t break the bank and Apple rounds out its Mac lineup, adding a high margin computer (with minimal engineering and customer support expense) that will sell in much greater quantities than a compromised Mac Pro. Are you listening, Tim?