From Rats (1347) to R.A.T.s (2022)
From the beginning of one pandemic to the end(?) of another
This my COVID Bulletin №9: … ‘From Rats (1347) to R.A.T.s (2022)’.
Note: As before, I write from a science background. I have access to updated real COVID Bulletins, via my membership of The Royal Society of Biology, but the following views also contain opinions that are entirely my own, plus those of other scientists.
I attempt to make my findings readable, in the hope that they will add to your own on-going knowledge, giving you a more accurately picture of COVID-19. I will supply technical notes when scientific terms need clarification in order to assist better understanding ... Fred: I hope that I succeed in this respect.
1347:
In the 14th Century the major form of transport from one country to the next was by ship: Slave ships; War ships, and Cargo ships … the giant transporters for the world at that point in time. Cargo ships in particular went from port to port and were the only way that goods could be moved from one country to another one that was ‘far away’.
Cargo Ships carried 3 things: Cargo; Crew members; and Rats! And rats carried fleas !!
The men (and they were usually men) that facilitated this movement of goods were the crew of the ships and the shore-workers who loaded and unloaded them. From the arrival port, the country’s transport system (carts pulled by horses, mules, or bullocks, or individual animals like donkeys and camels) would take the goods into the towns and villages.
Idyllic you might think, even romantic perhaps, but wait … remember, the ships carried something else … a potential problem for people in the towns and villages where the goods were finally unloaded ... RATS & FLEAS ! And some of them went along for the ride!
In some of my earlier COVID Bulletins I revisited a time when the world was plagued … was really plagued, and seriously so. That time was 1347. *** Note: I’ll put a link to all my Covid Bulletins at the end of this one***
Meanwhile, here are a few edited extracts from Bulletin №2 & Bulletin №5:
The Plague (also known as The Black Death or the Great Mortality) was a pandemic that hit the world in 1347 and caused millions of deaths.
It is unlike COVID, in that it wasn’t caused by a virus, but by a bacterium carried by fleas living on black rats. It was spread throughout the Mediterranean, and from there it reached Africa, Western Asia, and beyond.
There is evidence that once it came ashore, it was further spread by fleas, but people who developed this illness got so weak that they developed another illness: (Pneumonic Plague), spread person-to-person via aerosol (as with COVID). This explains the very fast inland spread, spreading faster than would be expected if the primary vector was only the rat flea. The result: A pandemic.
It is estimated to have killed around 25% of the world population! (the most deaths ever recorded in human history). 30 percent to 60 percent of the European population died, and the world population was reduced from around 475 million to 350–375 million.
So many died that people believed it was the end of the world.
Father abandoned child, wife husband, one brother another; for this illness seemed to strike through the breath and sight. And so they died.
“I buried my five children with my own hands. There was no one who wept for any death, for all awaited death … they all believed it was the end of the world.” … Agnolo di Tura
It took 200 years for the population to regain its 1300's level.
How does COVID compare with The Plague regarding deaths?
Let’s do the Maths on the deaths. How do the numbers stack up?
FACTS FOR THE PLAGUE: * World population: (early 1300s) was around 475,000,000 * World population: (end of 1300s) was between 350 & 375,000,000 * The number of deaths caused by The Plague was 100 to 125,000,000 * This represents a reduction of the world population of some 25%.
COMPARATIVE COVID CALCULATIONS: * World population: (currently) is approx 8,000,000,000 * 25% of this number = 2,000,000,000 * Thus, if COVID had a similar death rate to The Plague (of 25%) then we would be seeing some 2,000,000,000 deaths.
THE CURRENT REALITY: * Number of COVID-19 deaths (at mid-January 2022) was around 5,500,000 * Thus actual COVID-19 deaths = approx 0.07% of the world population.
2022:
In the 14th century people dealt with the pandemic in very basic ways …Collect the dead … Bury them (in mass graves?) … Wait for death!
And crucially, there were no vaccines in those days!
How are we reacting to our ‘new’ pandemic (COVID-19)?
In 2022 we have our health services; our researchers; and our governments’ attempts to advise and assist us … and, vaccination. The bonus today!
Plus, we can now test for COVID at its early stages so that we can minimise the overall effect on populations, and help to maintain effective public health systems.
In choosing the title of this COVID №10 article I purposely mentioned RATS. And I mentioned them twice … Rats and R.A.T.s. That was my attempt to ‘pull you in’. If you’ve read this far, it worked!
‘Rats №1’ (the creatures) are covered in the above 1347 Plague summary.
‘RATs №2’ (an acronym for Rapid Antigen Tests) is explained in the following technical notes. Take a moment to scroll through this R.A.T. info:
Technical notes on R.A.Ts: A Rapid Antigen Test attempts to do what its name suggests … it tests for the presence of antigens. Q: What are antigens? Ans: An antigen is a molecule that initiates the production of an antibody (a protective chemical that starts off an immune response by the body to the infection). Thus the presence of an antigen indicates that the body has been infected … but also (hopefully) that it is in the process of recovery.
When you are infected with a virus or bacteria, your immune system makes antibodies specifically to fight it. Your immune system can also learn to make antibodies by responding to vaccination (and giving a similar response)
Once you have antibodies to a particular disease, they provide some protection from that disease. Even if you do get sick, having antibodies can protect you from getting severely ill because your body has some experience in fighting that disease. How long this protection lasts can be different for each disease, each person, or by other factors. Antibodies are just one part of ‘immune response’.
FACTS & CAUTIONS:
- Getting a vaccine is safer than getting COVID-19, and vaccination against COVID-19 is strongly recommended.
- No vaccine is 100% effective, so some breakthrough infections are to be expected. However, the risk of infection, severe illness, hospitalization, and death are all much lower for vaccinated people compared to people who are unvaccinated.
- For many diseases, including COVID-19, antibodies are expected to decrease or “wane” over time, but even after antibodies wane, your immune system may have blood-cells that remember the virus, and can act quickly to protect you from severe illness if you later become infected.
- A booster shot, given some time after a normal vaccination regime, can help further protect, and is strongly recommended, especially for people who are immuno-compromised due to other medical conditions.
RAT or PCR ?
You’ve probably heard about PCR tests, but what, exactly, is a PCR test? In short … it’s the nose or throat-swab test that requires laboratory analysis. Because of this , it takes longer to get results.
Currently there are two primary types of COVID-19 tests being used to test people for COVID-19: PCR tests and Rapid Antigen Tests.
More technical notes (re PCR tests): “PCR” stands for “Polymerase Chain Reaction”, a method of amplifying the small amounts nucleic material in your swab sample (and it ‘needs’ a lab to do this). The amplification multiplies the quantities allowing easier virus detection.
Besides being more efficient, it also helps to clarify which exact virus a person has, and since symptoms of different viruses can be very similar, this is a great help in making sure that your infection is indeed COVID (or not!). And if it is COVID, the PCR test can identify the specific variant or sub-variant.
A PCR test is more accurate than the antigen test. They take at least 24 hours to confirm a result (maybe longer if they’re sent to an outside laboratory).
The advantage of the RAT (Rapid Antigen Test) is that it can give results in as little as 15 minutes, doesn’t require sending to a lab for results and is much cheaper to produce. They can also detect the virus in patients who are still highly infectious which can help for isolation and quarantine purposes.
A Final cautionary note re RAT tests:
One problem with relying on a RAT test is that it is not as sensitive as PCR, so a patient is more likely to receive false negative results with antigen tests. False-negative results are more likely to occur if somebody gets tested a week or longer after symptoms start. At that point, the amount of antigen can be quite low, and could go undetected even though the patient has COVID-19.
**The PCR test remains the gold standard for COVID-19 testing ** ******** * but RATs have a very important part to play * ********
I hope that you have enjoyed (and understood) my attempt at explanations.
This article is one of my series of COVID Bulletins. To read the whole series, just click on this link
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“From Rats (1347) to R.A.T.s (2022)” * written by Fred: writer on Medium * * * * * © Fred Ogden 2022 * * * * *
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