Forget Taiwan, China Will Invade Siberia

Many have been fearing that China will invade Taiwan. A common belief is that if China makes this choice, they will likely invade by 2027, when their military buildup is complete. However, China has very little chance in succeeding in an invasion of Taiwan.

Because Taiwan is an island, the invasion requires amphibious landings, some of the hardest military operations to pull off. Invading Taiwan would be more difficult than both the Allied invasion of Normandy and the Allied invasion of Sicily. China has no such experience in these types of complex operations.

In fact, China has little military experience at all, having not fought a war in decades. The last time China engaged in war was in the Sino-Vietnamese conflict in 1979, where they failed to achieve their operational goals. China also saw that Russia failed badly in Ukraine, despite the fact that Ukraine was supposed to be an “easy” land invasion for the Russians. Conquering Taiwan is much harder than Ukraine, and China’s leadership may realize that their military is unprepared for the task.

While talk of invading Taiwan can bolster support domestically for Xi Jinping in China, it seems doubtful that the Chinese Communist Party believes that they can successfully launch such an invasion. They have not even invested much in building additional landing craft. However, there is a much better prize for China up north, the lands of Siberia. China is likely to invade these lands because they are much more valuable than Taiwan, and much less defended.

Size

Taiwan — 36,000 square kilometers

Siberia — 13,000,000 square kilometers

The first thing to note is that there is an extreme size discrepancy between Taiwan and Siberia. While conquering Taiwan is supposed to conclude some decades long CCP dream, the reality is that China would not be gaining a lot of land even if they succeeded.

Siberia is over 361x the size of Taiwan. This means a lot of space for new Chinese cities and factories. China has a very dense population, but much of the Western part of the country is not easy to settle because of the harsh desert climate. However, Siberia will become more habitable with increased global warming.

Oil

Taiwan — 29,504 barrels of oil a day

Siberia — 4,500,000 barrels of oil a day

Invading Taiwan is not going to give China much useful resources. Taiwan’s main industry is microchips. They have high-tech foundries to produce the most advanced graphics cards and central processing units. While China would very much like to gain access to this technology, these foundries would likely be quickly sabotaged as soon as an invasion started. An invasion of Taiwan would mean that Taiwan would quickly turn over most of their microchip technology to the Western world, something that China fears.

Siberia offers much more for China. It is an extremely oil-rich area, producing more barrels in a day than the entire country of China, which is currently at 3,836,000 barrels a day. Successfully conquering Siberia would more than double China’s oil production. They would have plenty of oil to expand their military, grow their industry, and reduce reliance on foreign nations.

Defense

Taiwan — United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Australia, Europe

Siberia — Less than 3% of Russian military

It’s doubtful that China can defeat Taiwan. However, Taiwan isn’t alone. They are backed by the United States, Europe, Japan, Australia, and many more countries. While the United States was reluctant to send soldiers to Europe to defend Ukraine, many United States politicians have openly stated that the United States would go to war to defend Taiwan. China is not going to win against the whole Western world.

Meanwhile, Siberia is left almost completely undefended. Right now, 97% of the Russian military is in Ukraine. That means less than 3% are available to defend Siberia. It was reported that Russia had about 400,000 soldiers in Ukraine. 3% of this is 12,000. This leaves less than 12,000 soldiers to cover the entire area of Siberia. China has a military with 2,000,000 soldiers. They could easily overwhelm Russia’s southern border.

Would Russia Use Nuclear Weapons?

Some believe that an invasion of Siberia isn’t possible because Russia would use nuclear weapons. However, China doesn’t need to invade Siberia immediately. They could wait until affairs in Russia deteriorate further and the country fragments apart. Already, a Russian civil war is ongoing, with large groups of Russian rebels making incursions into Belgorod. Russian factions might first expend nuclear weapons on each other, or it could be revealed that most nuclear weapons are in a state of malfunction. China has their own nuclear weapons to, and they likely actually work.

Once it’s clear to China that the state of Russia is not a nuclear capable threat to them, that’s when China could start the invasion. By the end of 2025, Russia’s military capabilities will essentially be completely destroyed from their war on Ukraine. It would then be straightforward for China to march in and conquer Siberia.

Is Russia Already Letting it happen?

Now, there are many Chinese workers in Siberia. Many Russians already say that some parts are becoming more Chinese than Russian.

As the male population of Russia is being depleted for the Ukraine war, Russia needs more and more workers from China. China is therefore already slowly gaining a strong foothold in the Siberia region. China might be able to take over the region without even using much force.

Many countries have tried to conquer Russia in the past. Napoleon tried to take Moscow, as did Hitler. However, the Nazis believed they would only occupy up to the A-A line, a North-South line from Archangelsk to Astrakhan. Hitler did not believe conquering all of Siberia was feasible. China may be the country to conquer the largest amount of Russian land in history, and they may be able to do so without firing a single shot.

What Does It Mean for the West?

The conquering of Siberia would make China an incredibly strong foe for the West. While the sun is setting on the Russian Federation, the West must prepare for a protracted conflict with China.

China has already been waging war against the West for a long time, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths with fentanyl. China is an openly hostile nation to the West, and we have not been able to put up a strong resistance to them yet. Many Chinese companies can still do business in the United States, and Chinese corporations are allowed to own land in property in the United States.

However, both Republicans and Democrats in the United States recognize the military threat of China, and Europe and the Southeast Asian countries do as well. If after the conquest of Siberia, China turns towards Taiwan again, the world will be ready to answer. While China may be able to threaten the United States with cyberwarfare and sabotage through fentanyl, the West will emerge victorious in a direct conflict. Let us all be prepared.