Focus On What Never Changes

I’ve existed in a world of fantasy for quite some time.

Not the wonderous furry-animal Disney kind. No, it’s the more mundane world of investments. It’s a world of narratives dressed up as truths.

We all know we live in a world of uncertainty (we always have, always will). So, all the more reason for throwing our cash at something, anything that brings about more sureness to our existence.

That’s why we love forecasts of all kinds. Horoscopes, tea leaves, economists.

They play a role — they give us a fake sense of certainty.

That’s not to say we should ignore the reams of useful guidance out there. Far from it. Brainiacs, designated with an alphabet of letters after their names, have value in what they impart.

The information gives us direction. It shapes our thoughts. It may even give us peace of mind.

And probabilistic thinking and modeling bring a ton of value to decision-making in life and in business.

It’s just not based on the “truth”. Most of it isn’t anyway. How can the story about your many tomorrows be “true”? The future hasn’t been created yet.

Predictions are great, but let’s not forget an 85% chance of winning is not the same as a nailed-down 100%. It does not guarantee anything.

Just ask Hillary Clinton and this 2016 presidential election forecast:

However…and not to completely contradict anything I’ve just said…there are things that are “knowable”.

It boils down to making sense of what’s already in front of you.

Focus on what never changes

Consider day follows night, follows day, follows night….

That never changes. That doesn’t require any forecasting, any make-believe.

And nobody does it quite like nature. Bees make honey. Great oaks grow from tiny acorns. Seasons come and go in a knowable sequence.

(Ok, climate change is trying to rip up the rulebook. But the basic principle rings true.)

With the knowledge that some things don’t change, you can prepare for what is. You can apply it to life.

Take your career.

Once you reach a certain age (maybe that should be “if you reach…”), you will part ways with your final employer. It’s just the way it is. Redundancy, retirement, ill health. It will happen, whether you like it or not.

So, knowing that change will happen, why aren’t you saving for your retirement?

Or, maybe you’re thinking about starting a business but you don’t know what. And you’ve read that AI will take over the world:

Right there, it’s time to go back to basics:

What will never change?

People will need to eat, sleep, and visit the crapper (or “toilet” in less colorful vernacular).

Sure, AI may impact the types of products created and how the service is ultimately delivered. That’s what we’ve been sold (i.e., the smart forecasters have forecast).

Maybe champagne brunches will become a thing of the past all thanks to the magic of Ozempic. Maybe four-poster beds go out of fashion. Who knows, maybe toilet paper will be frowned upon in a decarbonizing world.

That doesn’t detract from the fact that people — all eight billion of them — will still need to eat, sleep and visit the crapper.

There are core needs that will always be there.

That means there’s a market. All you’ve got to do is find the right path to monetization. And there are so many, many ways to skin the proverbial cat.

What you do with this realization is entirely up to you.

Perhaps you don’t think the world needs another food blog, sleep pillow, or heated toilet seat (check out this beauty below):

And, no, these might not be sexy in the venture capital sense of the word. They are not crypto. They are not large language models. They are not the stuff of Silicon Valley.

You’re not building that flying car you dreamt of as a five-year-old.

But consider this:

Keeping it simple, focusing on what never changes, could mean you’re actually meeting a need.

Isn’t that novel in a world of ready-to-wear landfill?

You’re not churning out ego-driven junk that never deserves a home:

And if you can really drill down the concept — what never changes — to its essence, a whole world opens up.

It’s about finding the fundamental, underlying purpose.

Maybe it’s an imperfect analogy, but long before social media and email, there was airmail and carrier pigeon. These all represent communication and connection.

Today you can’t escape conversations on electric cars and autonomous driving. But let’s not forget generations ago horses and carriages were doing the same job of transporting us over huge distances.

And think about humans.

Greed, fear, envy, love, hunger, happiness, and longing won’t suddenly disappear with the next technological breakthrough.

You can find these unchanging elements everywhere if you’re willing to open your eyes.

Or listen to the words that resonate from yesteryear. Marcus Aurelius, for example, was telling us truths nearly two thousand years ago:

“The happiness of your life depends upon the quality of your thoughts.”

This hasn’t changed. Certain principles are everlasting.

At the end of the day, life doesn’t always make sense. And we’ll never understand everything.

We just need to work with what does make sense. Some things never change.

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