Final Predictions for the 93rd Academy Award Nominations

On Monday, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will unveil their nominations for the 93rd Annual Academy Awards. With the COVID-19 pandemic completely upending the movie industry and an unprecedented focus on inclusivity, this awards season is unprecedentedly unpredictable. Here, I take a deep dive into the races for the top eight awards.

Last year’s Oscar ceremony was a notable improvement over the prior year. First of all, there were more inspired winners. Sure, the quartet of acting winners (Renee Zellweger, Joaquin Phoenix, Laura Dern, and Brad Pitt) was exceedingly predictable by the time Oscar night came along, but most were deserving. The Academy also went from awarding one of the worst Best Picture winners in recent history the prior year (Green Book) to one of the boldest and best (Parasite). In addition to a better slate of winners, I also found the second consecutive host-less telecast to be a significant step up over the first, with more inspired bits, better musical performances, and higher quality presenters. Interestingly, last year’s Oscars telecast was also notable for being the last major live telecast before the pandemic upended all live events as we know them for the foreseeable future.

It is very hard to predict what is going to happen with this year’s Oscars, both in terms of nominees and the telecast. COVID-19 resulted in unprecedented changes to awards season, including the expansion of the eligibility period beyond one year (eligible films had to be released between January 1, 2020 and February 28, 2021), inclusion of films that premiered on streaming (as long as they had a theatrical release plan before the pandemic onset), a complete lack of in-person “For Your Consideration” events, and the last minute delay of several presumed front-runners. There is also the Academy’s increasing commitment to inclusivity, which was codified in some controversial changes to future ceremonies announced last fall. These factors have contributed to a race that lacks clear front runners in multiple categories and seems ripe for out-of-left-field nominations. Although numerous frontrunners have emerged, there has been an atypical level of variance throughout the awards season that seems likely to result in some shocking snubs and surprise inclusions on Oscar morning.

Click here for a more detailed account of the lead-up to this year’s Oscars

The telecast is also a big question mark as the Emmys, Golden Globes, and Screen Actors Guild Awards have all taken very different approaches to trying to conduct a virtual ceremony. Last fall’s Emmys worked surprisingly well; last week’s Globes were a bit of a mess; and Sunday’s SAG Awards are completely upending the normal approach with a pre-taped special. Little is known about the ceremony at this point other than the fact that the Academy has promised that it will be held in-person at the Dolby Theater on April 25 and that it will air live on ABC.

As has often been the case in recent years, one of the main stories on Monday morning will undoubtedly be the diversity of the nominees. However, I suspect the media will be talking about the overwhelming increase in the diversity of nominees from last year’s disappointingly white- and male-dominated lineup. Three of this year’s strongest contenders were directed by women (Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland, Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman, and Regina King’s One Night in Miami) making it quite likely that this will be the first year ever with more than one woman nominated for Best Director (only five have been nominated and one has won in the 92-year history of the awards). The fact that five of the major contenders are four black-led ensemble films (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Da 5 Bloods) and a film about a Korean family (Minari), suggests that there might be some unprecedented racial diversity among the acting nominees as well. And then there’s the question about how the legends and A-listers will fare. Fascinatingly, several well-regarded performances by highly respected (and in some case, legendary) actors like Tom Hanks, Sophia Loren, Ben Affleck, Amy Adams, Michelle Pfeiffer, and Ellen Burstyn seem likely to get shut out this year in favor of upstarts and virtual unknowns.

So why should you listen to me when it comes to Oscar predictions? Well, I have done pretty well in the past. Of the 44 nominees in the top eight categories last year, I correctly predicted 36 (82%), slightly down from the prior year but still strong. Of the eight I got wrong, I listed all of them as alternates to my predicted five.

Below I cover the main eight races (Best Picture, Best Director, the four acting categories, and the two screenplay categories). I provide a brief analysis of the race followed by my predictions about who the likely nominees are in order of likelihood, with those in bold being my final predicted nominees. Because I am predicting more shocks than usual, I have been bolder in my predictions this year. I am predicting some presumed safe-bets to be snubbed and some out-of-left-field shockers. I may be wrong on a few, but what’s the fun in predicting only the safe bets? I’ll be back on Monday morning with my reactions to the nominations.

BEST PICTURE

Currently, the rules in this category require there to be no less than 5 and no more than 10 nominees and a somewhat complicated preferential ballot system is used. This year, there is actually only one film that has been nominated for the top award by every major award-granting body and that is Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7, an ensemble film about the legal fallout from the Vietnam War protests at the 1968 Democratic National Convenion in Chicago. Two films that have been cited almost everywhere are Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland, a moving meditation on Americans displaced during the Great Recession, and David Fincher’s Mank, a black-and-white ode to the Oscar-winning screenwriter of Citizen Kane. Expect all three to get in with no problem. Then there are three films that have performed quite consistently well throughout awards season despite missing nominations here and there. These films are: Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari, a touching film about a family of Korean immigrants starting a farm in Arkansas; Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman, an electrifying rape revenge tale; and Regina King’s One Night in Miami, a powerful reimagining of the one night four legendary black men spent together. George C. Wolfe’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom seems a likely seventh Best Picture nominee after being included by several notable groups and being a front runner in both lead acting categories. It’s possible the race will be capped at seven, but I suspect that there will be two additional nominees — Sound of Metal, Darius Marder’s tale of a heavy metal drummer going deaf, and Judas and the Black Messiah, Shaka King’s chronicle of Black Panther leader Fred Hamptom. Both films have performed unexpectedly well and seem to be peaking at the right time. However, it is also possible that the Academy could expand beyond seven and go for some different films, such as the The Father, Florian Zeller’s riveting depiction of dementia; News of the World, Paul Greengrass’s traditional and Academy-friendly Western; Da 5 Bloods, Spike Lee’s criminally underrated tale of reunited Vietnam veterans; and The Mauritanian, a late-breaking Guantanamo Bay drama that was unexpectedly cited by the Golden Globes and BAFTA. But I suspect none of these four will have the passionate support to go all the way.

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
3. Mank
4. Minari
5. Promising Young Woman
6. One Night in Miami
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
8. Sound of Metal
9. Judas the Black Messiah
10. The Father
11. News of the World
12. Da 5 Bloods
13. The Mauritanian
14. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
15. Soul
16. Palm Springs
17. Another Round

Click here for my review and analysis of “Promising Young Woman” and “Nomadland”

BEST DIRECTOR

Chloe Zhao’s near-sweep of this category throughout the precursors suggest that she is the one to beat in this category. (Her win would undoubtedly be historic as she would be the second woman and the third Asian person in the nearly century-long history of the awards to win Best Director.) It also seems likely that the Oscars will give David Fincher his third nomination in the category for his passion project about Citizen Kane. Lee Isaac Chung also seems like a slam dunk as he was cited by both BAFTA and the Directors Guild of America in the past week and his film is peaking at the right time. I suspect (and hope) that Emerald Fennell will get cited for her divisive directorial debut, which has more than its fair share of fervent supporters (including me). The fifth spot, however, is a bit of a question mark. The most logical and safest choice is Aaron Sorkin, a prior Oscar winner for screenwriting, who directed the awards season front runner. However, I have long had the feeling that his will be the “shocking” snub of the morning given that he isn’t an established director and his film has a lot in common with other major Oscar players that have been snubbed in this category despite performing well elsewhere in the past. So who would bump him out? Well, Regina King could make it three women nominated for Best Director, but I suspect she will miss out due to the perception that her film is a straightforward translation of a stage work onto screen (a characterization I disagree with). Or Paul Greengrass could score a second nomination for his crowd-pleasing Western. Or newcomers Shaka King and Florian Zeller could surprise. But perhaps my boldest prediction of the lot is that we will see a largely unexpected nomination for Darius Marder, whose film has over-performed throughout awards season and is a true directorial masterwork.

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
2. David Fincher, Mank
3. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
4. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
5. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
6. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Regina King, One Night in Miami
8. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
9. Florian Zeller, The Father
10. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
11. Paul Greengrass, News of the World
12. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
13. Kevin MacDonald, The Mauritanian
14. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round

BEST ACTRESS

Two actresses have shown up virtually everywhere throughout awards season. The first is Nomadland’s Frances McDormand, a two-time previous winner in this category. The second is Pieces of a Woman’s Vanessa Kirby, who has been consistently recognized since winning the Volpi Cup for Best Actress at the Venice Film Festival in September. Both are very likely to be nominees on Monday. Two other surefire nominees are Ma Rainey’s Viola Davis, a prior winner for Best Supporting Actress, and Promising Young Woman’s Carey Mulligan, a prior nominee for Best Actress. Both have passionate supporters and have shown up on most nomination lists. Although these four actresses seem pretty locked for nominations (although it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Kirby could be snubbed due to a lack of passion for her film), the fifth spot is a bit of a question mark. For a while many people were sure the fifth spot would go to Italian screen legend Sophia Loren’s return to acting in The Life Ahead, perennial Oscar loser Amy Adams’ turn in Hillbilly Elegy, or critical darling Sidney Flanigan for Never Rarely Sometimes Always. Then late-breaking turns by recent Emmy-winner Zendaya in Malcolm & Marie and previous Best Actress nominee Rosamund Pike for I Care A Lot started gaining buzz. And in the past two weeks, Yeri Han has ridden the growing passion for her film to serious Oscar talk. Any of them could get nominated, but I suspect the fifth spot will go to Andra Day for taking on the role of blues legend Billie Holliday in The United States vs. Billie Holliday. In the 78-year history of the Golden Globes there has never been a time when neither of the Best Actress Golden Globe winners scored a Best Actress Oscar nomination (they give two awards, one for drama and one for comedy or musical). Thus, Andra Day’s shocking upset at the Globes last month all but cinches her a spot.

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holliday
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
7. Yeri Han, Minari
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
9. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
10. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie
11. Rosamund Pike, I Care A Lot
12. Kate Winslet, Ammomite
13. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
14. Radha Blank, The Forty-Year-Old Version

BEST ACTOR

There seem to be three sure bets here. The first is the late, great Chadwick Boseman’s turn as an aspiring musician with deep-seated rage in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Even if he hadn’t given one of the very best performances of the year (which he undoubtedly does) the enormous outpouring of grief regarding his tragic death from colon cancer earlier this year probably would have put him in the running. The second is Anthony Hopkins, who scored his first nomination in over 20 years for his role in The Two Popes last year and does career-best work in The Father. The third is Riz Ahmed, who has consistently been nominated for his heartbreaking work as a drummer going deaf in Sound of Metal. I suspect that that the last two spots are a close race between four men. Critical darling Steven Yeun seems likely to get in the fourth spot for his role in the widely praised Minari. The safest bet for the fifth spot bet would be on Gary Oldman taking one of those slots for his role as the Citizen Kane screenwriter in Mank, given that he is a recent Oscar winner and his film is a major player this year. But I suspect the Academy will give us a surprise in this category in place of Oldman. Will it be the spectacularly deserving Delroy Lindo (whose performance in Da 5 Bloods should have been an easy nominee and winner but has somehow failed to gain much traction this season)? Or perhaps beloved Dane Mads Mikkelsen for his turn in Another Round? Or maybe it will be Tahar Rahim, whose BAFTA- and Globe-nominated performance as a Guantanamo Bay detainee is the rare Oscar-bait that is also superbly nuanced and understated. My bet is on Rahim, even though I should probably expect the Academy to play it safe and pick Oldman.

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
4. Steven Yeun, Minari
5. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
6. Gary Oldman, Mank
7. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
8. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
10. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
11. Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
12. Tom Hanks, News of the World
13. Ben Affleck, The Way Back

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is by far the year’s hardest category to predict. There are nine serious contenders for the five spots and one could make a sound argument for why each of the nine could be snubbed on Monday. The most dominant player throughout the season has undoubtedly been Maria Bakalova, whose layered comic performance as Sacha Baron Cohen’s daughter in the mockumentary sequel Borat Subsequent Moviefilm has garnered consistent accolades. However, even she risks not making the cut as her film and role are far outside of the Academy’s typical comfort zone for acting nominees. The other critical favorite of the season has been Youn Yuh-jung for her role as an eccentric grandmother in Minari, but the list of Asian and foreign language female acting nominees is unforgivably short. A more traditional choice would be recent winner Olivia Colman in The Father, but her film’s risky limited release strategy and her recent shocking exclusion from the BAFTA nominations suggests she might not be a sure thing. Prior to her winning the Golden Globe, few were expecting two-time Oscar winner Jodie Foster to be a major player for The Mauritanian. But one would have to go back 45 years to find the last time a Golden Globe winner in this category failed to score an Oscar nomination. So if those four are in, who gets the fifth slot? Conventional wisdom says seven-time Oscar loser Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy, but her film got atrocious reviews and her buzz started fading at exactly the wrong time. Thus, I suspect she’s vulnerable. 12-year-old German actress Helena Zengel was an early front runner but her buzz seems to be fading and the Oscars have rarely cited child actors in recent years. In contrast, the buzz is increasing for Dominique Fishback, who gives a memorable performance as Fred Hampton’s romantic interest in Judas and the Black Messiah. My personal choice to replace her is Ellen Burstyn, whose searing turn as Vanessa Kirby’s mother in Pieces of a Woman should have guaranteed her the record for oldest acting nominee in history. But her disappointing awards season run suggests she will be overlooked. A more likely nominee is Amanda Seyfried, whose turn as old Hollywood icon Marion Davies was the charming highlight of frontrunner Mank.

1. Olivia Colman, The Father
2. Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
7. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
8. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
9. Helena Zengel, News of the World
10. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
11. Candice Bergen, Let Them All Talk
12. Saoirse Ronan, Ammomite

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Three actors seem like locks here. The first is presumed front-runner Daniel Kaluuya (a previous nominee for Best Actor in Get Out) for his turn as Black Panther leader Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah. The second is Leslie Odom, Jr., who has received every nomination possible for his role as legendary crooner Sam Cooke in One Night in Miami. The third is Sacha Baron Cohen, whose turn as liberal activist Abbie Hoffman in The Trial of the Chicago 7 gets an added boost from his headlining role in the acclaimed sequel to his breakout film Borat this year. The last two spots are less certain with numerous individuals vying for the spots. I suspect the Academy to go for critical darling Paul Raci despite his inconsistent awards season run. His film Sound of Metal seems likely to perform very well and it’s hard to imagine anyone watching it not being compelled to nominate his moving performance as a deaf recovering addict. That leaves one spot up for grabs. Conventional wisdom says the role will be filled by The Little Things’s Jared Leto, which was cited by the Globes and SAG despite his film’s dismal reviews, or Da 5 Blood’s Chadwick Boseman, who could get double nominated this year for his turn as a savior-like military leader. Strong arguments could also be made for On the Rocks scene-stealer Bill Murray or charming 8-year-old Minari co-star Alan Kim, who have shown up periodically throughout awards season. But I am going to make a bold prediction and pick Nomadland’s David Strathairn. He is a well-respected prior nominee who gives a strong performance in the best-reviewed film of the year, which virtually all voters will have seen.

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Paul Raci, The Sound of Metal
5. David Strathairn, Nomadland
6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
7. Jared Leto, The Little Things
8. Bill Murray, On the Rocks
9. Alan Kim, Minari
10. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
11. Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
12. Bo Burnham, Promising Young Woman
13. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
14. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
15. Charles Dance, Mank

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

There are three films that I would be genuinely surprised to see miss here — Aaron Sorkin, a previous Oscar winner for writing The Social Network; Emerald Fennell for her directorial debut; and Lee Isaac Chung for his touching and personal immigration saga. A likely solid bet for the fourth slot is Jack Fincher’s screenplay about the writing of the screenplay for Citizen Kane. The story of how David Fincher brought his late father’s script to the screen is a powerful and interesting one and the fact that the screenplay is about one of the greatest and influential American films ever made only helps it. That leaves the fifth spot up for grabs among a number of deserving candidates, including awards season heavy hitters Sound of Metal and Judas and the Black Messiah, Spike Lee’s Vietnam war film Da 5 Bloods, the wildly inventive time-loop comedy Palm Springs, the Pixar’s meditation on morality Soul, and Eliza Hittman’s acclaimed abortion drama Never Rarely Sometimes Always. I give the edge to Metal, but this is another category that could be a real surprise.

1. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
3. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
4. Jack Fincher, Mank
5. Darius Marder and Abraham Marder, Sound of Metal
6. Will Berson and Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
8. Andy Siara, Palm Springs
9. Pete Docter, Mike Jones, and Kemp Powers, Soul
10. Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
11. Thomas Vinterberg and Tobias Lindholm, Another Round

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Although it is less stacked than the other screenplay category, there are still numerous heavy hitters here. Chloe Zhao is a bona fide lock for her adaptation of Jessica Bruder’s 2017 book. Kemp Powers, Florian Zeller and Christopher Hamptom, and Ruben Santiago-Hudson’s adaptation of the plays One Night in Miami, The Father, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, respectively, also seem like strong bets. That means that again there’s one spot up for grabs. The traditional and safest choice would be Paul Greengrass and Luke Davies’ screenplay for News of the World, but I suspect we will see a surprise inclusion like The White Tiger, First Cow, or The Mauritanian. My guess is that the latter gets in as the writers made a compelling and important film based on the Guantanamo Bay diaries of Mohamedou Ould Salahi.

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
2. Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami
3. Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton, The Father
4. Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
5. M.B. Traven, Rory Haines, and Sohrab Noshirvani, The Mauritanian
6. Ramin Bahrani, The White Tiger
7. Paul Greengrass and Luke Davies, News of the World
8. Jonathan Raymond and Kelly Reichardt, First Cow
9. Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
10. Sacha Baron Cohen, etc., Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
11. Eleanor Catton, Emma.
12. Vanessa Taylor, Hillbilly Elegy

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