Summary

US stock markets have rallied despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, with the Japanese Yen weakening past 150 against the US dollar, while concerns about inflation persist alongside anticipation of a bearish trend in agricultural commodities.

Abstract

The US stock market experienced a significant recovery, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ indices all posting gains. Investor optimism persists, despite concerns over inflation following a strong CPI report. The Japanese Yen has weakened against the US dollar, prompting mild responses from the Bank of Japan. Geopolitical risks are escalating, with Russia threatening further military action in Europe. In the commodities market, a potential increase in US corn and wheat yields, coupled with leaked USDA information, has led to a bearish outlook for agricultural markets, with prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans falling. The US dollar index experienced a slight decline, while Bitcoin and gold prices saw modest gains and losses, respectively.

Opinions

The author suggests that the US stock market's recovery may be short-lived and that further recession might be necessary for market health.
There is skepticism regarding the Bank of Japan's inaction despite the Japanese Yen crossing the 150-yen threshold against the US dollar.
The author expresses concern over Russia's geopolitical maneuvers and the potential for further conflict in Europe.
The agricultural markets are bracing for significant adjustments, with the leaked USDA information likely to cause a bearish shift in the coming days to weeks.
The author implies that the US may face a surplus of corn, wheat, and soybeans in the upcoming crop years, which could have a profound impact on global markets and prices.
There is a hint of pessimism about the future of renewable energy markets, particularly concerning their capacity to consume the projected surplus of soybean oil, which could have severe consequences for global soybean farmers.

FEB 14. US stocks up again…Japanese Yen is in trouble now?

As time pass, people forget things so easily…

Strong CPI number had been reported yesterday, worried so much about the inflations… One day passed, people talk about another stock market rally..

So convenient…

Now, Russians are threatening more European countries with another war in 2024. They want to pull out of their armies from Ukraine and move to the Northern European borders.. Let’s see what Putin is going to talk from now on but their plans are so obvious anyway..

Other worries are growing fast…

US stock market has been recovered most of their loss yesterday. DJ Index was up 0.4%, S&P 500 index was up 1.0% and NASDAQ Index was up 1.3% today.

Everything was well recovered, and money is keep flowing into the equity market from other part of the world. Well, what can we say about this?

Investors are still thinking US markets as the most profitable and safe markets in the world. But, personally, US equity markets need some more recess time.

Apple was downed by 0.5%, MS was up by 1.0%, Tesla was up 2.6% and Amazon was up 1.4%

US dollar index was downed by 0.1%, ended at 104.72 points today. It was similar tunes as US stock market.

Euro was up 0.2% and Japanese Yen was up 0.1% against US dollar today. Japanese Yen have ended at 150.61 yen per dollar. As Yen passed 150-yen line, Bank of Japan have sent out a kind of mild warning message..

But as usual, they haven’t done anything at all.

Bitcoin was up 4.2%, ended at $51.616… seems getting too hot… Gold was stayed under $2,000 today, ended at $1,991.92 per Oz.

Crude oil market came down a bit today. Fundamentally or geopolitically, nothing really changed today. Israelis are pushing hard as usual, and Houthis are attacking vessels as usual.

Based on NYMEX Brent oil price was downed by 1.5% ended at $81.50 per barrel.

Let’s focus on how Putin is going to say and what people he’s going to meet from now on. It seems like Russians are up to something and it’ll not be pretty.

In the agricultural markets, everything fell hard today. More bearish leaked information came into the markets and directly hit the markets.

Let’s see some details..

CHICAGO CORN MARKET was downed by 1.5% today. Main down factors were coming from leaked numbers of USDA outlook forum in Washington DC, starting tomorrow. USDA might reduce the planting acreages of CORN from 94.6 MILLION ACRES to 90.2~92.5 MILLION ACRES in 2024/25. However, yield could go up to 181 BPA.

USDA’s February numbers were planting acreage was 94.6 MILLION ACRES and yield was 177.3 BPA for 23/24 crop year. Meaning, US will have huge CORN CROPS if everything goes well for next 2 years’ time. Players need to prepare big bearish shock for next 2~~3 days..

South American weather forecast stays; rains will be all over the continental for next 11~15 days period. US’s interior CORN basis firmed as big down fall of futures market. Ethanol margins remained positive this week with CORN PRICE is falling much faster than ethanol and DDGS prices for now.

CHICAGO WHEAT MARKET was downed by 2.0% today. Similar tunes as CORN market, impacted by leaked information of USDA OUTLOOK FORUM.

But it seems like USDA might decrease ALL WHEAT PLANTING acres to 46.4~48.8 MILLION acres range, average 47.5 MILLION acres for 2024/25. Based on USDA’s FEB WASDE REPORT, wheat planting number was 49.6 MILLION acres.

However, wheat prices were downed and reached new contract lows again. It’s interesting to see less planting acres but USDA might estimate much larger ending stocks. USDA might estimate over 700 MILLION Bushels. Last week’s WASDE REPORT, USDA put 658 MILLION bushels as the ending stock of 23/24 crop year.

So, where are we going from here? More confusing…

France’s AgriMer have raised its forecast for FRENCH WHEAT stock number to 6.3 MILLION TONS for 23/24 crop year. It looks like every WHEAT EXPORT country in EU might have bigger ending stocks because of UKRAINES’s unapproved WHEAT EXPORT. Furthermore, RUSSIANS are expecting 93.6 MILLION TONS of WHEAT for 2024 harvest, 1.4 MILLION TONS more than a month ago.

PARIS MILLING WHEAT price was downed by 1.1%, ending under €200/MT mark. LONDON FEED WHEAT price was also downed by 1.5%, ended at £165/MT. This is crazy…falling too fast…

CHICAGO SOYBEAN MARKET was downed as well. SOYBEAN price was downed by 1.3%, SOYBEAN MEAL price was downed by 0.4%, and SOYBEAN OIL price was downed by 2.0%. USDA’s OUTLOOK FORUM numbers are also melted into the market today.

Players are expecting about 85.3~88 MILLION ACRES for SOYBEAN PLANTING at the end of this year. In 2023/24, USDA estimated 83.6 MILLION acres, meaning, US might face huge SOYBEAN CROPS in 2024/25. Ending stock would be the ranges between 400~420 MILLION bushels. USDA’s Feb WASDE REPORT estimating 315 MILLION bushes as their ending stock for 2023/24.

So, what would happen, if USA’s RENEWABLE energy markets somehow, couldn’t consume all those SOYBEAN OILS for next 1~2 years period?

That will open the HELL GATE to GLOBAL SOYBEAN FARMERS.