Fantasy Football Draft Dominator — Finding Value at WR

Which wide receivers are overvalued or undervalued heading into your draft?

It’s the week before Labor Day and that means you’re probably making your final preparations for this year’s fantasy drafts. Who’s your top sleeper? Should you go with the Zero RB strategy? Who is this year’s Cam Newton or David Johnson? And are we really taking WRs with the top three picks now?

Fantasy football is all about value. The biggest mistake drafters make is picking a few guys they like and going hard after them to a fault. Almost any player in fantasy is potentially valuable — it just depends on what you’re investing in them. So use Average Draft Position (ADP) to get a sense of where guys will go, and watch for value that drops.

Never go into your draft with a set target for each round. Your target should be taking the value available at each pick. I don’t like drafting Cam Newton this year — but I’ll take him happily if he’s there in the 6th round instead of the 3rd. It’s all about relative value and sorting out the studs from the duds.

So who is overvalued, and who’s undervalued? Today we look at WRs. Be sure to check out the RB piece and the one on QBs and TEs too. Off we go!

Note: Everything is standard scoring here by default, but I tried to add PPR notes where it made a big difference.

Overvalued — having the #1 pick in your draft

It’s strange how much RBs and WRs have swapped places in fantasy football over the past couple decades, culminating in this season being the first time I can ever remember a WR being the consensus #1 pick — consensus top 3 really. It wasn’t long ago that it was considered a risk to take a receiver in the first round at all, even guys like Randy Moss and Terrell Owens at 10–12.

Now don’t read this incorrectly. I don’t think Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, or Odell Beckham are overrated. They’re my top 3 WRs in fact — and for the record, I think I prefer OBJ, the guy who looks like he still has his best career year ahead of him at some point. These guys are good, really good.

But none of them are #1 pick good, not the way LaDainian Tomlinson or Priest Holmes or Marshall Faulk used to be back. They won’t make a run at 2000 yards or 20+ TDs, and they won’t win you entire weeks on their own.

Antonio Brown is the #1 pick because he’s been the top WR two years in a row. He’s really good and he’s really safe. I get it. But I’m not sure he is worth that much more than OBJ or Julio, and I’m also not positive I’d even take him over Adrian Peterson or Todd Gurley — two guys at least capable of that monster league-changing year.

If you have the #1 pick and have the option of trading down to say #5, you should at least explore it. Draft calculators suggest that you could trade something like 1/41 for 5/25 as a pretty even trade. That might mean Amari Cooper instead of Kelvin Benjamin, Mark Ingram instead of Jeremy Langford.

The #1 pick just isn’t quite as valuable this year as it has been in years past. If you find someone that just has to have Antonio Brown, try to move down a few picks and reap the reward without losing much value.

Undervalued — loading up on the top WRs before the huge drop-off

Fantasy football used to be about taking that stud RB right away, and now we are taking WRs at the top. It also used to tell you to load up on those top 15–20 RBs before they were all gone by about the end of the 3rd round because none of the depth later on could measure up. And that too has swapped with WRs.

There are now “bell cow” WRs on about half of the NFL teams, guys that catch a ton of passes and are super valuable in fantasy football, and then there’s a pretty sizable drop-off to “everyone else.” I see the top 15 or so guys as well out ahead of the pack, and then a whole mix of about 25 more guys that are all relatively similar in value. Meanwhile RB sort of slowly declines in value steadily over the first 6 rounds, and QB does as well.

I’d recommend you take every opportunity to grab those top 15 or so WRs before they’re gone, with any or all of your first three picks. If there’s a Gronk or a RB in there you love, great, but try to get at least two of the top WRs, and you dare not leave without at least one.

I’d be fine taking 2 or 3 WRs in those early rounds and then ignoring the position all together for about 4–6 rounds, stocking up on RB options and a strong QB there instead. That looks like an optimal strategy this year to me.

Overvalued — AJ Green

AJ Green was a top ten fantasy receiver last season, 2012 and 2013 too. In 2014 he performed as a top ten WR by ppg. So how can he be overrated?

I’ve studied WRs for years in fantasy football and there are usually two big signs that a receiver may fall out of the top ten. The first is a receiver having relatively low receptions, and the second is scoring a big chunk of their points in just one game — and AJ Green fits both criteria.

Over the past decade and a half, WRs with <80 receptions in a top ten year have repeated their top ten performance under 10% of the time. As receiver production has gone up the past few years, so have reception totals — and so has the trend. Eight WRs in 2013 and 2014 had <90 receptions. All eight dropped out of the top ten the next year AJ had 86 catches last year.

WRs that scored 15% of their points or more in one game their top ten season are also in trouble. Only about 1 in 5 of them have repeated their top ten performance the following season. Last year in week three AJ had a monster 10/227/2 game that accounted for over 18% of his points for the season. Without that game, he would’ve ranked just 18th among WRs.

So what we have here are a lot of reasons for concern. AJ’s game is about big long plays, and that makes him less reliable than other stud WRs. You’re looking at more of a WR2 and waiting on that one or two big games each year for him to rank among the top receivers. That’s still a really good player but not one you can take among the top ten picks overall.

Undervalued — Dez Bryant

If you’re measuring talent, Dez is every bit as good as the guys at the top of the draft, but he’s WR7 and his ADP has slipped down to the 15th pick as of this writing. So what’s the problem? The problem is there’s a double injury risk since both Romo and Dez carry injury concerns, and we’ve already seen the problem hit as Romo will miss half the season.

Now everyone is panicking because of how bad Dez was last season when Romo was hurt. Makes sense — if you forget that Bryant was playing hurt all season too. Before last year’s season from hell, Dez had been a top 5 WR three straight years. He’s a stud and he’s healthy now, and Dak Prescott has looked very capable this preseason. Dez might be every bit as good as the big 3 WRs, and he’s available a full round picks later. That’s value.

Overvalued — Allen Robinson

Robinson has the same two problems as AJ Green. ARob had just 80 receptions last year. Top ten WRs with <80 receptions tend to drop by around 15 catches and 5–6 TDs the following season. That would project ARob’s stats to something around 65/1140/8 and a finish around WR15. Robinson also had one monster 33 point game, scoring 15% of his points there.

Again, you’re relying on big spikes here to get your money’s worth. This just isn’t a first round pick, especially with guys like Dez or Gronk staring you in the face. Expect his TD% to regress, and if the receptions drop some too, you’re in trouble.

Undervalued — Jordy Nelson

Since his huge breakout campaign in 2011, Jordy has been the unquestioned go-to target for Aaron Rodgers whenever healthy. He’s finished as the #2 WR twice as well as an additional top ten finish, and now he’s being drafted at the end of the second round as WR10.

It’s been over a year, and that’s plenty of time for an ACL to heal properly. Nelson is healthy and should resume top WR production and that could make him as valuable as any receiver. He has 43 TDs in his last 60 games, 11+ over a 16-game schedule, and he averages a healthy 5 receptions a game with over 15 yards a reception. That’s a safe top 10 WR being drafted at his floor with plenty of upside for more. Go get him.

Overvalued — Kelvin Benjamin

I was bummed when Kelvin tore his ACL last year… because I was excited for him to get overdrafted in all my leagues. Lucky for us, he’s still inexplicably going at the end of the 3rd round, so we can reap by avoiding anyway.

Kelvin fits some of the same problems as Allen Robinson, except he wasn’t quite as good. His receptions are low (just 65 his one season) and he’s very TD dependent and likely to see his TD% drop even with his large redzone frame. Benjamin is neither the go-to receiver (that’s Olsen) nor the go-to goal line threat (that’s Cam) on this team. Do yourself a favor and stay far away.

Undervalued — Amari Cooper

Amari’s ADP continues to rise and he’s not too undervalued anymore, but I still love him and he fits the profile of a breakout WR. Cooper played through plantar fasciitis most of his rookie season and still had a great year with 72/1070/6 despite the injury and despite getting out-targeted by teammate Michael Crabtree.

Whether because of injury or the vaunted “rookie wall,” Amari had four terrible games the back half of last season, a combined 5/34/0 in those games. That left him at 67/1036/6 in the other 12 games, which could have put him on pace for more like 90/1400/8 if he had kept up his production. Of course that’s not entirely fair, but it is fair to expect a sophomore WR to increase his receptions as he grows comfortable with the game.

Expect him to approach that hypothetical pace from last season. You may not get him again in the 3rd round for a very long time.

Overvalued — Randall Cobb

The problem with Cobb is that he’s a slot receiver who doesn’t catch a ton of passes. You can be a valuable fantasy WR with limited receptions — see AJ Green and Allen Robinson last year — and you can be a valuable fantasy WR if you’re a slot receiver like Julian Edelman or Jarvis Landry and rack up a ton receptions. Cobb does neither.

Like teammate Jordy Nelson, Cobb averages about 5 receptions a game. Unlike Jordy, Cobb doesn’t do as much with them. He’s barely over 12 YPC in his career and he’s also scored half as many TDs as Jordy over the same span. Cobb should be better than he was last year but the upside is limited to another random TD spike. You can do better elsewhere.

Undervalued — Demaryius Thomas

Despite the Super Bowl win, Demaryius struggled with his lowest YPC and TD total by far since his breakout 2012 campaign. Gee, do you think that was because his QB couldn’t throw the ball more than seven yards? Love you Peyton Manning, but last year was an embarrassment.

Once Peyton mercifully sat with his injury the second half of last year, the TDs returned for Thomas, and the YPC increased too. With Osweiler, Demaryius paced out to 90/1100/10 last year. Oh and by the way, even with Peyton half the season, Thomas finished as WR13 last year.

Now he’s being drafted at WR17 at the end of the third and that just doesn’t make sense. Look I don’t know much about Trevor Siemian either but I promise you can he throw it further down the field than Peyton. Thomas was top-2 in the league each of the last two years in targets. He’s going to produce.

Overvalued — Doug Baldwin

Baldwin was under 80 receptions last year at 78/1069/14, his top ten performance owed entirely to a monster TD spike. Baldwin also had two big games that together made up over 30% of his points, another problem.

Just 3 of 14 receivers this century have repeated top ten seasons after a year with <1150 receiving yards — Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss. Baldwin isn’t Harrison or Moss and he’s not worth a 4th. Expect something more like 70/900/4, the usual from Baldwin. That’s barely even playable.

Undervalued — Sammy Watkins

Four receivers last season averaged 100 yards a game over the back half of the season. Brown, Jones, and OBJ are the top three picks. Watkins is the fourth.

Watkins is the clear lead target in Buffalo for an underrated QB that has shown the ability to get him the ball, and he was scoring consistently last season with a TD in over half his games. Sammy was already the #7 WR in ppg last season. There’s some obvious injury risk here, but the upside is well worth it at WR16 near the end of the third or later.

Overvalued — Josh Gordon

Look, I’m all for taking risks on guys, and I love drafting players that are suspended to start the season because the value is usually artificially low. But Gordon is a walking red flag in addition to his 4 game suspension, a lifetime threat to be out for the rest of the season at any moment.

Worse, it’s hard to know if the upside is even still there. That #1 season was three years ago. When Gordon played sparingly in 2014, he was almost totally useless, and now he hasn’t played at all for almost two full years and there’s no real reason to believe he’s in game shape or has his top speed.

If you’re not sure how Cleveland feels about him, they spent an amazing five draft picks on receivers this year. Yet somehow Gordon’s value is rising, now at the top of the 5th or higher in most drafts. That’s just too rich. I wouldn’t touch him before the 8th or 9th round, just too many other valuable picks.

Undervalued — all three Cardinals WRs somehow

This is tricky, because I actually think Carson Palmer’s stats regress this year, so it’s hard to justify seeing all three Cards WRs as value. Floyd, Fitzgerald, and Brown are being drafted at WR27, WR31, and WR34 — the sign of a fantasy community that can’t figure out which one to take. I’m not sure which to take either. I actually love John Brown even though he’s technically probably the third target, but I think all three of them are worth their draft slot and any of them could have a top season.

Overvalued — Allen Hurns

Have you figured out yet that you should avoid guys with low receptions and high TD spikes? TD% loves to regress to the mean, and Hurns’ 63/1030/10 is a poor man’s Doug Baldwin, who remember is a poor man’s Allen Robinson. The fantasy community is onto this one and has knocked Hurns down to WR30 but I’m still not sure he’s worth the pick there in the 6th round. There just aren’t enough receptions and you can’t expect the TDs to continue.

Undervalued — Sterling Shepherd

Shepherd was my favorite WR in this year’s draft other than Josh Doctson. He’s an excellent route runner with strong hands, and his skills should translate quickly — and he’s in a perfect situation to succeed. Eli Manning has loved to spread the wealth across two good receivers over his career. Shepherd is going in the 8th round and looks like a guy who could get 80+ catches and contribute to your fantasy team right away.

Overvalued — Tyler Lockett

Everyone loves a good sleeper, and a lot of people have talked themselves into Lockett despite the fact that he’s about the fourth or fifth option in Seattle. Lockett had only 4 games in 17 last year with more than four catches. He’s a super fun football player and a big time deep threat but there’s just no good reason to think Seattle can even produce one consistently good fantasy WR, let alone two. That all changes if your league counts return yards; otherwise Lockett has no business going before Emmanuel Sanders, John Brown, and Jordan Matthews as he is in the 7th round of drafts.

Undervalued — late veteran pickups like Torrey Smith, Vincent Jackson, and Steve Smith

Every year there are a handful of veterans in fantasy football that get overlooked because they’re boring. All of these guys — if Smith gets healthy — will at least be WR3 playable and could always do better, and not one of them is being drafted in the first 10 rounds or among the first 45 WRs.

Expect VJax to push toward his usual 70/1000/7. Maybe not quite at age 33 but close enough to be useful. Torrey should do something similar or better in a Chip Kelly offense that made Jordan Matthews a top 25 WR each of the last two years. And Smith was a stud last year at over 12ppg before getting hurt, though he’s still hard at work coming back. If anyone can do it, it’s that guy.

Remember the plan to take a bunch of top WRs early and then wait a long time? These are the guys you can take later to provide some depth and balance the roster out.

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