Fake Impeachment: 1 Detail Left Out
Impeachment talk ignores a key fact: The president’s opposition party controlled BOTH branches of Congress (not just one) in previous attempts (which failed).
History shows Americans oppose the concept of impeachment (even when the votes are actually available to make it happen). It’s literally Congress overruling the vote of the people so it’s used sparingly. The votes aren’t there in 2019.
Our clickbait, attention-obsessed culture keeps talking like this remote possibility could actually happen this time. Most of these attention seekers (and fundraisers) know better. Review the history:
Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton (the only impeached presidents in US. history) were Democrats challenged by a Republican House and Senate. Richard Nixon, the only president to resign, was a Republican facing an overwhelmingly Democrat-controlled House and Senate (in the middle of 40 years of an iron tight Democrat grip on Congress).
Government is divided today. Little changes without cooperation (and Nancy Pelosi hasn’t even had a vote on whether to actually have an impeachment inquiry).
Kat Timpf compares the impeachment talk to “hiring a wedding planner when you don’t have a groom,” noting it’s uncertain whether impeachment could even pass the Democrat House while it is all but certain to die in the Republican Senate.
Democrats do believe impeachment (even yet another failed one) will wound Donald Trump — though the knife aimed at him may wind up killing the campaign of Democrat Joe Biden. It will become the most noticed and only memorable achievement of the 2019–2020 Democrat-controlled House (trying and failing to remove a president).
Rebranding. Democrats have so far simply “rebranded’’ their ongoing investigations as “an impeachment inquiry’’ though Congress actually voted on whether to do so in 1974 and 1998.
The media certainly likes talking about impeachment: Fox News’ Sean Hannity and MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow BOTH had 3.8 million voters October 2, much higher than normal. The news ratings are a good measure (more reliable than many polls) of whether voters are engaged with a political topic.
Unlike past (failed) attempts, today’s federal government is divided with the GOP controlling the White House and Senate plus a conservative majority running the Supreme Court. In the U.S. House, Democrats have a narrow majority (235–197) giving them the House.
The only time in history where impeachment was a real possibility
National divisions were greatest after the Civil War: But one party controlled the federal government. Northern Republican Abraham Lincoln (the first Republican president) chose a Southern Democrat Vice President in the 1864 election, Andrew Johnson, to try to unify North and South, already preparing for a post-Civil War peace. Four months later, Lincoln was killed.
Johnson became president after Lincoln’s April 1865 assassination (the same month the North won the war) and by 1868, Democrat Johnson faced an overwhelmingly Republican Congress where the GOP majority was so incredibly overwhelming they had enough votes to override any Johnson veto.
1868 was the closet America ever came to removing a President: the House voted 126 to 47 to impeach President Johnson (with 17 not voting). The Senate also backed impeachment by a 35–19 vote (all nine Democrats and 10 of the 45 Republicans opposed impeachment). Because the Constitution requires a super majority of two-thirds of senators to remove a president, the effort to remove Johnson failed by a single vote.
President John F. Kennedy called this, Republican senators bucking their own party to support the independence of the presidency, a “Profile in Courage.’’ Had Johnson been impeached, presidents and the presidency itself would have been much weaker, always forced to answer to Congress.
America never saw anything remotely similar to that again. Another 106 years passed before Congress even seriously considered impeaching a president. In July 1974, a committee voted to impeach Nixon but Nixon resigned in August 1974.
In 1998, the GOP controlled Congress but didn’t come close to removing Bill Clinton (though many at the time thought a disgraced Clinton, charged with sexual harassment might resign). Clinton, after all, never won a majority of the popular vote and he was punished in the courts and forced to surrender his law license but his popularity soared after he fought off impeachment and the GOP lost seats in the 1998 congressional elections.
Many of the Republicans who tried to remove Clinton, including two Republicans speakers of the House, themselves lost power.
Fake News and Fake Impeachment
The “Boy Who Cried Wolf” never-ending cry we have heard for 39 months: Like a dysfunctional relationship where one side cries “This is it! It’s over THIS TIME!’’ the false promise that “this time’’ Donald Trump “is done” never materializes.
What neither side admits: In 1868, 1974 and 1998 (and even in 1987 when Ronald Reagan was investigated over the Iran-Contra affair), each of those presidents faced a hostile Congress completely controlled by the other party.
In each of those earlier years (1868, 1974, 1987 and 1998), it seemed at least theoretically possible that the President could possibly be removed or forced to resign. No president has ever been removed. Only Richard Nixon resigned. And after the 1987 and 1998 challenges to Reagan and Clinton, both presidents saw their popularity rise.
2019 is totally different than those earlier years. Nearly everyone knows there is little to no chance Trump can be removed from office despite all the impeachment threats that have gone on and on since before he was even elected.
Those threats actually had some credibility in 1868, 1974, 1987 and 1998 but little today. That has everything to do with Republicans controlling the Senate and the White House (not to mention having their own supportive conservative media voices including Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, Breitbart, the Daily Wire, etc., etc.
The Press who Cried Wolf: The Turning Point Worst Day?
The few who expect the House to be able to “somehow’’ remove President Trump are likely to be disappointed when he remains president.
“The House, by design, is like a hot cup of coffee catering to the times while the Senate, by the design, is like the saucer that keeps the splashing coffee from spilling,’’ U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter explained to me more than 25 years ago.
Politicians and cable TV outlets hoping to get more attention from the impeachment talk are raising money but also risking their credibility: The highlight reel includes cliches of cable news personalities saying “boy who cried wolf’’ exaggerations like:
“The noose in tightening.’’
“The walls are closing in.’’
“We’re at a tipping point.’’
The result? Just 13 percent of Americans express strong confidence in the media outlets that have been making these same “He’s about to go’’ predictions since June 2015.
A Better Idea
Go online or to your DVD collection and watch “All the President’s Men,’’ the story of The Washington Post reporters who actually helped bring down Richard Nixon.
They keep finding out new details (we used to call that news) without jumping to conclusions. You watch the film and think “How much more do they need before they reach a conclusion?’’
Today, the opposite happens: TV news personalities jump to conclusions before they know much. MSNBC’s Mika and Morning Joe, who predicted the rise of Trump so well in 2015, today sound like an angry ex spouse who only sees the worst in everything their ex does.
Celebrities embracing the Trump impeachment fantasy seemed shocked when they realized that removing Trump would actually make the very conservative Mike Pence president.
Chris Matthews (who should know better) speculated on TV that somehow both Trump and Pence might — somehow — be removed.
That’s about as likely as the Netflix show “Designated Survivor’’ where the whole government gets wiped out leaving one unpopular cabinet member as president. It’s theoretically possible but history says it’s highly unlikely.