Extended, unsuccessful war, plus impoverished citizens lead to the end of the Russian Czar — Can this happen again this spring?
Putin started a risky war game by invading Ukraine. He clearly prepared for this in advance — nearly assassinating, then jailing the opposition leader Navalnij last year was probably part of the plan to “Unite Russia” as well as building up a huge stockpile of gold reserves to back up the Russian Rubel.
However, within only a few days the stakes were raised.
Ukraine seems to be much more capable of resistance than it was thought before, while the invading military seems to be much less professional than it is supposed to be. (With the exception of the southern front, where they did well till now.)
The Ukrainian army is receiving an enormous amount of military aid, and even new “international brigades” are on their way to the front.
In the Spanish civil war the “ne pasaran” (=they won’t break through) did not succeed — but it was Franko’s side who received the modern military help from rising foreign powers, and the defenders were a wildly divided group, fighting within itself as well.
Putin’s Russia faces an unprecedented union, without much backup.
Devoted soldiers, equipped with modern tools and local support are super dangerous. — Even simple stuff, like widespread use of night-vision goggles can make a huge difference, as it makes the Ukrainians much more capable of night raids. Russians also lack the most important deadly tool of XXI century warfare: drones and effective anti-drone systems.
Their disinformation also faces a hard challenge: the other side has heroes, emotional stories, and memes to share, while the invaders don’t. The modern world needs media, and media loves to create superheroes. (I suppose that their team will work on this part soon.)
Covid and low levels of vaccination are also still a problem in both countries.
The present setup can easily lead to a stalemate — even a Russian defeat becomes imaginable if the mobility, morale, and manpower of Russian land troops deteriorate fast enough.
Autocrats can sometimes survive their lost wars, but it is more common to be dethroned after such a huge failure.
The devaluation of Rubel, plus news about the real situation in Ukraine widespread on the internet can change public opinion as well. Opposition can gain momentum.
Putin, a 70 years old veteran surely perceives increasing risk — this war can lead to his own end.
Will he be able to step back and de-escalate? It is not really his style; I am not sure if he ever retreated before.
It sounds wise to step back and gain strength, but everyone knows how hard it is to improve ourselves in isolation, without reliable income and very limited capital. If it is possible for him to gain enough from a short war that he will not lose face in the eyes of his public, then the present peace talks can make more sense.
His other option is to raise the stakes on his end as well, making the game even more deadly, probably by changing some of the key rules.
Reaching the first revolution phase took three long years (~900 days) in that time.
Life is at least 100 times faster now than during the first world war (at least in politics & media).
I except a game rule change within the next 5 or max 10 days. Let’s hope that it will not be too painful (for anyone else except himself).