Everything You Need to Know about the 92nd Academy Awards
Compared to the incredibly tumultuous lead-up to the 91st Academy Awards last year, the drama surrounding this year’s ceremony is relatively light. Nevertheless, there are a handful of tight races and hit films and A-listers galore among the nominees. Below, I provide some context for this year’s race, preview the show, and provide my predictions in all 24 categories.
THE RELATIVELY DRAMA-FREE LEAD-UP TO THIS YEAR’S OSCARS
In the lead-up to last year’s Academy Awards ceremony, the controversies seemed endless. There was the Academy’s prematurely announced and ultimately scrapped plans to institute an Oscar for Best Popular Film and award some of the “minor” awards during the commercial breaks. There was the hiring, firing, and almost re-hiring of Kevin Hart as host and the eventual decision to have the first host-less ceremony in 30 years. Beyond the telecast, there was heated discussion regarding the nominees. A black and white foreign film financed by and primarily released on a streaming service tied for most nominations and appeared a front runner for major awards (Roma). Two tepidly reviewed films with problematic depictions of racial and sexual minorities ended up sweeping (Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody). And then there was the wildly unpredictable Best Actress race where Olivia Colman pulled off one of the biggest upsets of recent years by unexpectedly triumphing over now 7-time loser Glenn Close.
In contrast, this year has been relatively quiet. The Academy announced a while back that they would again be host-less and they mercifully refrained from announcing any significant changes to the ceremony. Regarding the nominations, the Academy included the bare minimum of women filmmakers and minority actors to stave off a total boycott. (Although the Best Director lineup was all-male for the 87th time and the acting nominees were predominantly white, several female producers were nominated, two female screenwriters were nominated, and the twenty acting nominations included a Hispanic man and a black woman.) Even the nominated films failed to generate a great deal of controversy. Despite the fact that Best Picture nominees like Joker, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood, and Jojo Rabbit have some very vocal detractors and some legitimate criticisms lobbed at them, it doesn’t seem like anything is generating the intense rancor that last year’s crop of films did.
Although it may not have controversy to keep the buzz going, this year’s Oscar ceremony does have a few things working in its favor. For one, this is the shortest awards season in history with the Oscars airing several weeks earlier than it has in the past. Although presumably exhausting for those who are actually involved, it is better for the attention spans of film fans and awards junkies. It also adds some potential unpredictably into the voting given how short the window was for voters to make their picks. Another thing working in the show’s favor is that several of the nominated films were bona fide hits. Of the nine nominees for Best Picture, five sailed past the $100 million mark at the domestic box office (Joker, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood, 1917, Ford v. Ferrari, and Little Women), two were made widely available to viewers via streaming services (The Irishman and Marriage Story), one massively over-performed internationally (Parasite), and one developed a passionate cult following (Jojo Rabbit). And finally, this year’s crop of nominees has an astonishing number of legends and A-listers, which will undoubtedly boost star power at the ceremony. The twenty acting nominees include household names like Leonardo DiCaprio, Charlize Theron, Brad Pitt, Tom Hanks, Al Pacino, Scarlett Johannson, Margot Robbie, Anthony Hopkins, Antonio Banderas, Kathy Bates, Laura Dern, Joaquin Phoenix, and Renee Zellweger. Whether or not these factors will translate into big ratings (or a good show) remains up in the air, but the ceremony does seem to have a lot going for it.
PREVIEWING THE HOST-LESS SHOW
One of the only things we know about the show itself is that like last year it will have no host. But that does not mean there won’t be a bevy of recognizable talent on the stage. Among those slated to appear are:
- last year’s quartet of acting winners Olivia Colman, Rami Malek, Mahershala Ali, and Regina King;
- film legends Jane Fonda, Diane Keaton, Sigourney Weaver, Tom Hanks, and Spike Lee;
- comic goldmines Chris Rock, Steve Martin, Will Ferrell, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Kristen Wiig, Rebel Wilson, James Corden, Maya Rudolph, and Josh Gad;
- industry-beloved stars Penelope Cruz, Salma Hayek, Sandra Oh, Natalie Portman, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Keanu Reeves, Mark Ruffalo, Ray Romano, Brie Larson, and Taika Waititi;
- and up-and-comers Zazie Beetz, George MacKay, Oscar Isaac, Mindy Kaling, Beanie Feldstein, Gal Gadot, and Timothee Chalamet.
We also know that for better or worse (probably worse) there will be plenty of musical numbers. All five of the Best Original Song nominees will performed, ensuring appearances by Elton John, Cynthia Erivo, Idina Menzel, Chrissy Metz, and Randy Newman. And recent Grammy sweeper Billie Eilish and singer-actress Janelle Monae were just mysteriously announced as performers. Both of them seem pretty radical for the typically stodgy Oscars, so it will be quite interesting to see how that pans out.
Unlike last year when there was the mystery of how a host-less show would go and the promise of surprise wins to make the show exciting, this year is looking to be a more subdued affair. Hopefully the Academy has some surprises up their sleeves for the telecast.
PREDICTING THE WINNERS IN ALL 24 CATEGORIES
The Specialty Film Categories:
Best International Feature Film: Corpus Christi; Honeyland; Les Miserables; Pain and Glory; Parasite. This is the single biggest lock of the whole night. It would be incomprehensible if Parasite loses this. Will Win: Parasite. Possible Upset: Pain and Glory.
Best Animated Feature: How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World; I Lost My Body; Klaus; Missing Link; Toy Story 4. The fourth installment of Woody and Buzz Lightyear’s adventures seems like the obvious choice, but given its unexpected wins at BAFTA and the Annie Awards, I am leaning toward Klaus. Will Win: Klaus. Possible Upset: Toy Story 4.
Best Documentary Feature: American Factory; The Cave; The Edge of Democracy; For Sama; Honeyland. Given that its two biggest competitors share similar subject matter (For Sama and The Cave are both about the Syrian Civil War), it seems likely that the timely, Obama-backed American Factory will prevail. Will Win: American Factory. Possible Upset: For Sama.
Best Documentary Short Subject: In the Absence; Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl); Live Overtakes Me; St. Louis Superman; Walk Run Cha-Cha. Will Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl). Possible Upset: St. Louis Superman.
Best Animated Short Film: Dcera (Daughter); Hair Love; Kitbull; Memorable; Sister. Will Win: Hair Love. Possible Upset: Dcera (Daughter).
Best Live Action Short Film: Brotherhood; Nefta Football Club; The Neighbors’ Window; Saria; A Sister. Will Win: The Neighbor’s Window. Possible Upset: Brotherhood.
The Technical/Craft Categories:
Best Cinematography: The Irishman; Joker; The Lighthouse; 1917; Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood. The haunting, stunning visuals of 1917 should earn legendary cinematographer Roger Deakins his second Oscar in this category. Will Win: 1917. Possible Upset: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.
Best Film Editing: Ford v. Ferrari; The Irishman; Jojo Rabbit; Joker; Parasite. This category almost always goes to the film with the most or showiest editing rather than the best, and as such I think a win for Ford v. Ferrari is inevitable. However, Parasite deserves it if for no other reason than the peach sequence alone. Will Win: Ford v. Ferrari. Possible Upset: Parasite.
Best Production Design: The Irishman; Jojo Rabbit; 1917; Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood; Parasite. A strong argument could be made in favor of any of these films, but I suspect it will either go to Once Upon a Time’s reconstruction of late 1960s Hollywood or 1917’s recreation of WWI trenches. Will Win: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood. Possible Upset: 1917.
Best Costume Design: The Irishman; Jojo Rabbit; Joker; Little Women; Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood. The stunning attention to detail that went into Little Women should be an easy win, but something tells me that that film will go home empty handed on Oscar night and Jojo will take this one. Will Win: Jojo Rabbit. Possible Upset: Little Women.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Bombshell; Joker; Judy; Maleficent: Mistress of Evil; 1917. Just like last year, it looks like this award will go to the team that made beautiful Hollywood stars look like well-known Republicans. Will Win: Bombshell. Possible Upset: 1917.
Best Original Score: Joker; Little Women; Marriage Story; 1917; Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. After 14 losses in this category, Thomas Newman should be a lock for his gorgeous work on Best Picture frontrunner 1917. Nevertheless, all signs are pointing toward relative upstart Hildur Guðnadóttir for her superb work on Joker (the one nomination for the film that I thought was richly deserved.) Will Win: Joker. Possible Upset: 1917.
Best Original Song: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4; “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman; “I’m Standing with You,” Breakthrough; “Into the Unknown,” Frozen II; “Stand Up,” Harriet. This incredibly weak lineup has no obvious frontrunner, leaving it to be anyone’s game. Dianne Warren could pick up her first win after 10 losses and Randy Newman could repeat for a Toy Story song, but it seems that in a field with no obvious frontrunner the Academy will either fete the legendary Sir Elton John again (“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”) or give Cynthia Erivo her EGOT (“Stand Up”). My bet is on Elton. Will Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman. Possible Upset: “Stand Up,” Harriet.
Best Sound Mixing: Ad Astra; Ford v. Ferrari; Joker; 1917; Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood. The war mechanics of 1917 seem to have the slight edge over the race car marvels of Ford v. Ferrari, but it is a genuine tossup. Will Win: 1917. Possible Upset: Ford v. Ferrari.
Best Sound Editing: Ford v. Ferrari; Joker; 1917; Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood; Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker. I don’t think the majority of Academy voters really understand the difference between the sound categories so I am just repeating my prediction from above. Will Win: 1917. Possible Upset: Ford v. Ferrari.
Best Visual Effects: Avengers: Endgame; The Irishman; The Lion King; 1917; Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. In the battle of the prestige war pic and the comic book juggernaut, the former gets the edge but only slightly. Will Win: 1917. Possible Upset: Avengers: Endgame.
The Top 8:
Best Adapted Screenplay: Steven Zaillian, The Irishman; Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit; Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker; Greta Gerwig, Little Women; Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes. This race is neck-and-neck between two up-and-coming auteurs who have yet to win Oscar gold and either would be historic. A win for Taika Waititi would make him the first indigenous person to win a screenwriting award and a win for Greta Gerwig would make her the first solo female winner in this category since Emma Thompson took it in 1995. Given the passion for Jojo, I give Waititi the edge. Will Win: Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit. Possible Upset: Greta Gerwig, Little Women.
Best Original Screenplay: Rian Johnson, Knives Out; Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story; Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917; Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood; Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite. Early on this looked to be a race between Baumbach and Tarantino (who has already won twice in this category), but increasingly it looks like Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won’s richly deserving, multi-layered, genre-defying Parasite script will triumph. Will Win: Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite. Possible Upset: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.
Best Supporting Actor: Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood; Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes; Al Pacino, The Irishman; Joe Pesci, The Irishman; Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood. These five actors have an astonishing total of 30 Oscar nominations and six wins among them, so it is not wise to count any of them out. However, Brad Pitt looks to be the clear frontrunner given his wins at virtually every other awards show this season. In the unlikely event of an upset, a fresh-out-of-retirment Joe Pesci would be a lovely surprise. Will Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood. Possible Upset: Joe Pesci, The Irishman.
Best Supporting Actress: Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell; Laura Dern, Marriage Story; Scarlett Johannson, Jojo Rabbit; Florence Pugh, Little Women; Margot Robbie, Bombshell. Laura Dern is the obvious choice here, as she has won virtually every precursor award and is a beloved industry veteran who has never won. In the extremely unlikely event of an upset, Pugh or Johannson could be feted for their banner years. (But it must be said that Jennifer Lopez was robbed for Hustlers.) Will Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story. Possible Upset: Scarlett Johannson, Jojo Rabbit.
Best Actor: Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory; Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood; Adam Driver, Marriage Story; Joaquin Phoenix, Joker; Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes. This is one of the strongest Best Actor races in years, as evidenced by the fact that Robert DeNiro (The Irishman), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is My Name), and many other deserving candidates couldn’t break in. Nevertheless, this is going to Joaquin Phoenix in a landslide. He has seemingly unanimous support and has won virtually every precursor. If there is any upset, logic says DiCaprio and Driver have the best chance but I actually think first-time nominee Banderas’s heartbreaking turn in Pain and Glory will be the runner up. Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker. Possible Upset: Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory.
Best Actress: Cynthia Erivo, Harriet; Scarlett Johannson, Marriage Story; Saoirse Ronan, Little Women; Charlize Theron, Bombshell; Renee Zellweger, Judy. Zellweger has won virtually every major Best Actress award this season for her embodiment of Hollywood icon Judy Garland in her final, tragic days and there is no reason to suspect she won’t triumph at the Oscars. In the very unlikely event of an upset, the only actresses with even a remote chance are Charlize Theron, whose transformation into former Fox News host Megyn Kelly was a huge attention-grabber, and Saoirse Ronan, who has still yet to win despite having four Oscar-nominated turns in Best Picture-nominated films by the age of 25. Will Win: Renee Zellweger, Judy. Possible Upset: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women.
Best Director: Martin Scorcese, The Irishman; Todd Phillips, Joker; Sam Mendes, 1917; Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood; Bong Joon-ho, Parasite. Phillips’s nomination is a joke (no pun intended) and he has no real shot. Shockingly, revered industry titans Tarantino and Scorcese have somehow become buzz-free also-rans in this category. This is a two-way race between Bong Joon-ho and Sam Mendes, with Mendes having the clear edge after picking up the Globe, BAFTA, and Directors Guild of America award for his impressive work on 1917. Will Win: Sam Mendes, 1917. Possible Upset: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite.
Best Picture: Ford v. Ferrari; The Irishman; Jojo Rabbit; Joker; Little Women; Marriage Story; 1917; Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood; Parasite. The overall buzz surrounding Ford v. Ferrari, Marriage Story, and Little Women was never strong enough to make any of them a frontrunner for the top award. Buzz for The Irishman and Once Upon a Time… were deafening early on, but seem to have faded considerably. That leaves four films. Joker lead the nominations and has passionate support, but I suspect its divisiveness prevents it from winning on a preferential ballot. Jojo Rabbit is a well-liked dark horse that has made a late surge with some recent guild wins, but I don’t think it’s enough to triumph. That leaves SAG-winning, critical darling Parasite v. Golden Globe, PGA, and BAFTA winner 1917. As much as I would like Parasite to win and truly believe it still has a shot at doing so, virtually every sign points to a sweep for Sam Mendes’s WWI drama 1917. Will Win: 1917. Possible Upset: Parasite.
This article featured my predictions of who WILL win. To find out who I think SHOULD win check out my deep dive into the four acting races and the screenplay, directing, and Best Picture races.
I will be blogging all throughout awards season, so follow me on Medium and/or Twitter if you want to stay up to date on how things progress.
Check out my other awards show articles on last year’s Oscars and this year’s Golden Globe Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards, and Primetime Emmys.
Check out my reviews of the following nominees: Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood and Marriage Story
