Everything You Need to Know about the 77th Annual Golden Globes
What are the Golden Globes?
The Golden Globe Awards is an annual awards ceremony that honors the year’s best in film and television. There are 25 categories (14 for film and 11 for television). The voting body is the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a collection of 93 journalists and photographers who cover the U.S. entertainment industry for foreign publications.
Do the Golden Globes generally matter in awards season?
As I have discussed in a previous article, the answer to this is that they shouldn’t matter but they do anyway. The fact that they are not voted on by film industry insiders, film critics, or film fans make them a very curious awards show. Nevertheless, they hold weight for four key reasons. First, they have been around a very long time (since 1943). Second, they are the first major ceremony of awards season. Third, they are fairly predictive of the Oscars. In the last 20 years, 11 Best Pictures, 11 Best Directors, 14 Best Actors, and a whopping 18 Best Actresses picked up a Globe en route to their Oscar. Astonishingly, the last 10 Best Actor and Best Actress winners picked up the corresponding Globe on the way to Oscar wins. (Of course, the fact that the Globes give two Best Actor awards and two Best Actress awards by separating the lead acting categories into Drama and Musical or Comedy categories muddies things a bit.) Fourth, they throw a great party. They have a history of well-selected hosts, the pace is usually significantly snappier than the Oscars, and with an overwhelming number of acting categories spanning film and television, the broadcast is brimming with A-listers.
Why are the Golden Globes especially important this year?
As I have mentioned, this awards season is remarkably condensed due to the Oscars airing nearly a month earlier than they traditionally do. The result is that Oscar voters only have 6 days to cast their votes for the nominations. The period runs from January 2nd to January 7th, with the Golden Globes falling right in the middle. Thus, the Globes is very well poised to influence Oscar voters more than usual. It should be noted that although the vast majority of Oscar voters are unlikely to explicitly look to the HFPA for guidance, a surprise upset, a terrific acceptance speech, or a buzzy fashion statement can raise a potential Oscar nominee’s profile at just the right moment.
Are the Golden Globes worth watching?
Due to their fun atmosphere and sea of (often intoxicated) A-listers, the Golden Globes are usually the most entertaining of the awards shows. Off the top of my head I can think of a dozen exceedingly memorable moments from recent years, including Tina Fey and Amy Poehler’s hosting gig, Will Ferrell and Kristen Wiig’s hilarious presentation of Best Actress, and fiery, headline grabbing speeches by the likes of Meryl Streep and Oprah Winfrey. And unlike the Oscars, whose attempts to find a host last year was nothing short of a dumpster fire, they generally have inspired and successful picks.
However, this year how enjoyable the telecast will depend largely on your feelings regarding British comedian Ricky Gervais, who is taking on hosting duties for the 5th time. If you think he’s a brave comedian who does an excellent job of skewering Hollywood in a fresh and pointed way then you’ll probably like it. If you think he’s a mean-spirited, glorified shock jock who lowers the elegance of the endeavor, you probably won’t.
Who do we know for sure is going to win?
Two awards we know for sure. Tom Hanks will become the 67th awardee of the Cecil B. DeMille Award, which is given to someone who has made outstanding contributions to the film industry. And Ellen DeGeneres will become the second awardee of the Carol Burnett Award, which is given to someone who has made outstanding contributions to television. (Burnett won the inaugural award last year.) It should make for good television given that both are extremely worthy recipients as well as likable personalities, despite DeGeneres’s increasingly divisive reputation among LGBT people.
Why are the Globes more relevant to film than TV despite awarding both?
There are two reasons for this. One is that due to their eligibility period not aligning with the Emmys (the primary television awards) different shows are often going up against each other here than they are at the Emmys, making it a weak predictor. The other is that the Globes have a longstanding tendency to award hot new out-of-the-box shows and then drop them instantly, in stark contrast to the Emmys. They have made so many puzzling choices over the year that it’s almost comical to review their track record.
Why should you listen to me?
Good question. Last year, I did not do so well with my predictions. I drastically over estimated how much the HFPA would go for seeming slam-dunks A Star is Born (a universally acclaimed, music-filled remake of a Hollywood classic headlined by A-listers!) and The Favourite (a universally acclaimed, edgy period piece with beloved actresses!) and drastically underestimated how much they would go for the tepidly reviewed crowd pleasers Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody. Nevertheless, I hope to be back on track this year and I have broken down my predictions for all 25 categories below — including television. (Note: As I have yet to finish seeing all of the major film contenders, I have refrained from stating who I think should win.)
THE FILM CATEGORIES
Best Motion Picture — Drama. The only film here without a real shot is The Two Popes. The intelligent, well-crafted religious drama is coming up surprisingly short on buzz. I would also be surprised to see a win for Marriage Story. Even though that film has decent buzz, it is generally being revered as an actor’s showcase not as the overall best picture of the year. That leaves three real contenders. There is the third Netflix entry in this category — The Irishman. An insanely hyped and well-received Martin Scorcese epic that may put some off with its epic length. There is Sam Mendes’s late-breaking WWI dazzler 1917, which has yet to receive a wide release. And then there is Todd Phillips’s comic book adaptation Joker. Given the unexpected inclusion of Todd Phillips in Best Director and the fact that last year the Globes went for mediocre crowd pleasers over truly great films, my prediction is sadly for Joker. (At least this year if I am wrong, it will be a pleasant surprise.) Will Win: Joker Possible Spoiler: The Irishman
Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama
Cynthia Erivo has popped up on nearly every major nomination list for her role as American hero Harriet Tubman in Harriet, but there seems to be very little buzz for her to actually win. Saoirse Ronan would be a worthy repeat winner (she already has a Globe for the sensational Lady Bird), but the HFPA gave very little love to Little Women in key categories where it was expected to show up, indicating a lack of love (its only other nomination was for Score). The HFPA has been far more friendly to Scarlett Johannson in the past than the Academy has, so a win for her most acclaimed role to date in Marriage Story is highly plausible. However, the general consensus seems to be that she is out-acted by Adam Driver. Then there’s Charlize Theron, an A-lister going unrecognizable in a timely drama (Bombshell). I would peg her for a win in any year she didn’t have to go up against the likes of comeback kid Renee Zellweger’s performance in Judy. The two-time Globe winner (for Chicago and Cold Mountain) came out of semi-retirement with an acclaimed performance as film legend Judy Garland that seems like just the kind of the thing the HFPA will go for. Will Win: Renee Zellweger Possible Spoiler: Charlize Theron
Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama
Following the same logic as above, Jonathan Pryce seems unlikely to triumph for The Two Popes (given the movie’s somewhat muted buzz), as does Christian Bale in Ford v. Ferrari (which, like Little Women, failed to be nominated in several key categories where it was expected to). Antonio Banderas is a logical Globe winner, given that he is in a foreign film by a beloved auteur (he is nominated for Pedro Almodovar’s Pain and Glory) and has gone 0 for 5 in his previous Globe nominations. However, he has to face two behemoths. The first is Adam Driver, who got career-best notices for her is work in the divorce drama Marriage Story. The second is Joaquin Phoenix haunting turn as the Joker, which managed to impress even people who loathed the film. I would like to see Driver take it, but my money is on Phoenix. Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix Possible Spoiler: Adam Driver
Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
The only one of the five that I don’t see having a shot here is Dolemite Is My Name. The Eddie Murphy Netflix vehicle got its fair share of acclaim but it has a notable lack of buzz compared to the other four nominees. Rocketman is a possibility, given the Elton John biopic’s impressive box office and legion of admirers. Knives Out, Rian Johnson’s whodunit, did bigger box office, got greater critical acclaim, and has the benefit of currently playing in theaters. It would be a likely winner in a less competitive year. But this year the race looks to be between two alternate takes on history — Taika Waititi’s Nazi-era Jojo Rabbit and Quentin Tarantino’s Manson-era Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Both have done enormously well during awards season and are riding huge waves of buzz. I give the edge to Tarantino but won’t be surprised if there is an upset. Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Possible Spoilers: Jojo Rabbit
Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
We can immediately rule out Cate Blanchett. Despite the legendary actress’s impressive Globe run (3 wins from 9 nominations) her nomination for the poorly received flop Where’d You Go, Bernadette? puzzled many. Beanie Feldstein also seems like a long shot for Olivia Wilde’s Booksmart, given the film’s failure to show up in Best Picture-Musical/Comedy and Best Screenplay, both of which it richly deserved. Speaking of richly deserved nominations, Emma Thompson’s powerhouse performance in Late Night should be a contender but the film has a serious lack of buzz. That leaves Knives Out protagonist/breakout star Ana de Armas and Awkwafina’s acclaimed turn in The Farewell (which definitely should not be in the Musical/Comedy category). It’s a tight race, but I’m going with Awkwafina. Will Win: Awkwafina Possible Spoiler: Ana de Armas
Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
Daniel Craig’s hammy performance in Knives Out was a delight, but it was hardly award worthy. The unexpected nomination for child actor Roman Griffith Davis for his work in Jojo Rabbit will likely be perceived as reward enough. With those two out, that leaves three actors who would be front-runners in any given year. Eddie Murphy made a dynamite comeback with his Netflix film Dolemite Is My Name and just had an acclaimed guest stint on Saturday Night Live to raise his profile. Leonardo DiCaprio gave one of the best performances of his storied career in Tarantino’s awards season frontrunner. And Taron Egerton’s acclaimed performance as Sir Elton John has managed to sustain its buzz in the nearly 8 months since the film’s release. Although I have trouble seeing the HFPA miss an opportunity to award DiCaprio, I think it’s Egerton’s. Will Win: Taron Egerton Possible Spoiler: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
The Globes is one of the only places this whole awards season that Annette Bening’s turn as Sen. Dianne Feinstein in The Report has shown up, indicating that it likely doesn’t have the momentum for a win. Ditto Kathy Bates’s work in Clint Eastwood’s box office dud Richard Jewell. The other three nominees, however, have shown up everywhere. Margot Robbie’s role in Bombshell is strong in its own right and she will ride the good will from her performance in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as well. Jennifer Lopez scored her first Globe nomination in 22 years for her role in the stripper drama Hustlers. On paper she is the type of beautiful A-lister that HFPA seems like they would fall head-over-heels for, but after Lady Gaga lost to Glenn Close last year, I think they may be out of fashion. Then there’s Laura Dern, the universally beloved actress who has four prior Globes and has been sweeping the critics’ awards for her work as a ruthless divorce attorney in Marriage Story. I think she’s got this one in the bag. Will Win: Laura Dern Possible Spoiler: Jennifer Lopez
Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
This incredibly stacked category has five bona fide acting legends. All have a long history of prior awards and give great performances in fairly high-profile films. I think the person in the weakest position is Sir Anthony Hopkins, who clearly belongs in the lead category and stars in a film that not many seem overly passionate about. Given the lack of other nominations for the Mr. Rogers drama A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Tom Hanks also looks unlikely to triumph. Conventional wisdom says that The Irishman co-stars will split the vote, but either Al Pacino or Joe Pesci could triumph, especially the latter who came out of retirement for the role to great acclaim. If they do vote split that would clear the way for Brad Pitt’s turn as an unaffected stuntman in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. He’s my pick, but in a category this stacked anything can happen. Will Win: Brad Pitt Possible Spoiler: Joe Pesci
Best Director — Motion Picture
Even if Joker wins Best Picture and Best Actor, I have trouble envisioning the HFPA going for Todd Phillips over the four behemoths he is up against. Quentin Tarantino could pick up his first win in this category, but I think he has a much better shot at nabbing his third win for screenwriting. Sam Mendes could pick up his second for his remarkably ambitious WWI epic 1917. More likely, however, is that Martin Scorcese could pick up his 4th win in this category, as he has won 3 out of his last 5 nominations in this category. But I suspect even the mighty Scorcese will fall to Bong Joon-Ho, his film Parasite would likely be winning Best Picture if it was eligible (at the Globes, foreign films can only be nominated in Best Foreign Language Film, not Best Picture). Will Win: Bong Joon-Ho Possible Spoiler: Martin Scorcese
Best Screenplay — Motion Picture
Any of the five screenplays nominated here would be infinitely superior winners to last year’s Green Book travesty. I suspect that voters will be least passionate about Anthony McCarten and Steven Zaillian’s screenplays for The Two Popes and The Irishman, respectively. Bong Joon-Ho richly deserves recognition for his brilliantly written film, but I suspect that it will be viewed more as a directorial achievement. Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story on the other hand is viewed as far more script-driven than director-driven, giving it a leg up here. But I suspect that the Globes will give Quentin Tarantino his 3rd win in this category for his acclaimed summer blockbuster. Will Win: Quentin Tarantino Possible Spoiler: Noah Baumbach
Best Original Score — Motion Picture
Daniel Pemberton (Motherless Brooklyn), Hildur Guonadottir (Joker), and Alexandre Desplat (Little Women) all feel like also-rans here, leading to a two-way show-down between Randy Newman (Marriage Story) and Thomas Newman (1917). The HFPA likely is eager to reward them both given that Randy is 0-for-9 at the Globes and Thomas is 0-for-4 at the Globes, but the score for 1917 feels more like what the Globes would go for. Will Win: Thomas Newman Possible Spoiler: Randy Newman
Best Original Song — Motion Picture
“Stand Up” from Harriet has virtually no shot here, leaving it a race between three pop music legends and a couple of EGOT recipients. Given how epically Cats bombed — and the fact that the song didn’t even make the Oscar shortlist — I would say that Taylor Swift’s “Beautiful Ghosts” is the least likely of those four. In contrast, Beyonce’s “Spirit” made the shortlist and was from a big hit (The Lion King). But it is so spectacularly forgettable that I find it hard to believe the HFPA will go for it. Elton John’s “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” doesn’t rank among his best work, but it serves as a rousing climax to a well-received film all about his musical legacy. I think he will win, but he has to fend off Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez’s infectious track “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (they won the Globe for “Let it Go” from the original Frozen.) Will Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” Possible Spoiler: “Into the Unknown”
Best Animated Feature Film
It’s absolutely hilarious that after Disney tried so hard to tout the CGI-dominated Lion King remake as a live action film, the Globes nominated it for Best Animated Feature Film. However, it was a bad film so that joke will not follow through to a win. Missing Link benefits from being the only original property among the five nominees, but its tepid box office and lack of buzz make it an unlikely winner. Then there’s the three sequels. Toy Story 4 charmed audiences and critics this summer, Frozen II is the biggest and most recent hit of the group, and How to Train Your Dragon 3 continued one of the most successful non-Disney animated franchises going. My bet is on one of the two from the Mouse House. Will Win: Frozen II Possible Spoiler: Toy Story 4
Best Motion Picture — Foreign Language
All five nominees have huge buzz and huge acclaim, including the edgy Les Miserables the gorgeous Portrait of a Lady on Fire (both from France), Pedro Almodovar’s mature and meditative Pain and Glory, and Lulu Wang’s spectacularly moving The Farewell. However, none of them have the buzz or acclaim of Parasite, which will win this category hands down. Will Win: Parasite Possible Spoiler: The Farewell
THE TELEVISION CATEGORIES
Best Television Series — Drama
Last year’s winner (The Americans) is off the air and five buzzy shows are ready to take its place. Reviews for the first season of AppleTV’s The Morning Show and the second season of HBO’s Big Little Lies were somewhat mixed compared to the other three, so they are at a disadvantage. BBC’s Killing Eve had great acclaim but its second season aired a very long time ago and is likely not fresh in voters memories. In contrast, the third season of Netflix’s The Crown just premiered to great reviews and stars last year’s Best Actress Oscar and Globe winner Olivia Colman. The Crown could certainly take the crown, but I suspect the award will go to HBO’s red-hot Succession. Will Win: Succession Possible Spoiler: The Crown
Best Actress in a Television Series — Drama
This astonishingly stacked category didn’t even have room for last year’s Globes co-host Sandra Oh! Her co-star Jodie Comer (who upset Oh at the Emmys last fall) was nominated, however, and would be a worthy winner. But she has to face four big screen stars. These include Reese Witherspoon (who is nominated for The Morning Show but also co-headlined Big Little Lies), Nicole Kidman (who previously won the Globe for the first season of Big Little Lies), Jennifer Aniston (who came back in a big way with her acclaimed, against-type role in The Morning Show), and Olivia Colman (who took over from Claire Foy as Queen Elizabeth on The Crown). Although I would personally like to see the brilliant work of Comer or Kidman get feted, I think Colman will triumph with Aniston hot on her heels. Will Win: Olivia Colman Possible Spoiler: Jennifer Aniston
Best Actor in a Television Series — Drama
Kit Harrington was surprisingly the sole Game of Thrones nomination for the show’s final season and it feels like a filler nominee. Ditto Tobias Menzies (who took over as Prince Phillip on The Crown) and the return of Rami Malek for Mr. Robot (although his profile is infinitely raised by his Best Actor Globe and Oscar wins last year for Bohemian Rhapsody). That leaves Brian Cox, who anchors HBO breakout Succession and Billy Porter, riding high off of his Emmy win for Fx hit Pose. Will Win: Billy Porter Possible Spoiler: Brian Cox
Best Television Series — Musical Comedy
A win for the critically derided Ryan Murphy series The Politician would be a bit embarrassing. The Kominsky Method doesn’t seem buzzy or acclaimed enough to score a repeat win for its second season. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel could win for a second time, but if voters are looking for an alternative to Fleabag, it seems more likely that voters will go for Barry, which has yet to win. But, wait, why would voters be looking for an alternative to Fleabag? They won’t. It will win in a landslide. Will Win: Fleabag Possible Spoilers: Barry
Best Actress in a Television Series — Musical or Comedy
The weakest links here appear to be Kirsten Dunst and Natasha Lyonne whose turns in On Becoming a God in Central Florida and Russian Doll, respectively, got their fair share of buzz and acclaim but just can’t compare to the other three. Christina Applegate’s exceedingly dark turn in Netflix’s Dead to Me would be a worthy winner, but she would have to take down Rachel Brosnahan, who won for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel the last two years, and Phoebe Waller-Bridge, who picked up not one but three Emmys for Fleabag last September. I don’t see anyone taking down Phoebe. Will Win: Phoebe Waller-Bridge Possible Spoiler: Christina Applegate
Best Actor in a Television Series — Musical or Comedy
Ramy Yousef (Ramy) and Paul Rudd (Living with Yourself) feel like filler nominees here and, despite his immense talent, so does Ben Platt (The Politician). That leaves us with either a repeat win for Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method) or a first Globes win for recent Emmy winner Bill Hader (Barry). Either is plausible but my money is on the latter. Will Win: Bill Hader Possible Spoiler: Michael Douglas
Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Despite having A-list talent involved George Clooney’s Joseph Heller adaptation Catch-22 and Russell Crowe’s Fox News expose The Loudest Voice failed to generate a lot of buzz among critics or viewers. In stark contrast, the theater biopic Fosse/Verdon, the rape drama Unbelievable, and the recounting of the Chernobyl disaster were released to rapturous applause. My guess is that the Globes will follow the Emmy’s lead and give it to Chernobyl. Will Win: Chernobyl Possible Spoiler: Unbelievable
Best Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
The great Helen Mirren feels like a filler nominee for her turn in the largely buzz-free Catherine the Great. Joey King could surprise for her acclaimed turn in The Act, but most of the buzz for that project went to her on-screen mom Patricia Arquette (who is nominated in the Supporting Actress category). Merritt Wever and Kaitlyn Dever did hugely acclaimed work in Unbelievable but seem likely to split the vote. That leaves Michelle Williams moving and uncanny turn as theater great Gwen Verdon in Fosse/Verdon to triumph just as it did at the Emmys. Will Win: Michelle Williams Possible Spoiler: Merritt Wever
Best Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Christopher Abbot has very little chance at winning for his turn in the low-buzz Catch 22. Conventional wisdom says that this category should go to Sam Rockwell given that he has the combination of A-list status and a well-liked limited series. However, he was so clearly outshone by Michelle Williams that he is not a slam dunk. Ditto Jared Harris, who impressed but is just one part of the impressive ensemble that made Chernobyl work. This surprisingly weak category is ripe for an out-of-left field upset like Sacha Baron Cohen’s dramatic turn in The Spy or Russell Crowe’s bombastic turn as Roger Ailes in The Loudest Voice.Will Win: Russell Crowe Possible Spoiler: Sam Rockwell
Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
All 5 have a shot here. The least likely are Toni Collette and Emily Watson who do terrific work in Unbelievable and Chernobyl, respectively, but are a bit outshone by others in the ensemble. Patricia Arquette could follow up on her Emmy win for The Act with a Globe but she didn’t have to face Helena Bonham Carter as Princess Margaret in The Crown or Meryl Streep’s debut on Big Little Lies. It seems hard to imagine a world where the Globes don’t anoint Streep for her turn. Will Win: Meryl Streep Possible Spoiler: Helena Bonham Carter
Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
With the exception of a win for Stellan Skarsgard for Chernobyl, I can see the Globe going to anyone in this category. I expected the race to be between Alan Arkin (The Kominsky Method) and Henry Winkler (Barry) last year, but both were upset by Ben Whishaw (A Very English Scandal). Either of them could triumph this year, but they have to compete against Kieran Culkin’s breakout turn on Succession and Andrew Scott’s brilliant work as the sexy priest on Fleabag. Will Win: Andrew Scott Possible Spoiler: Kieran Culkin
I will be blogging all throughout awards season, so follow me on Medium and/or Twitter if you want to stay up to date on how things progress!
Check out my articles about the following Golden Globe nominated shows and films:
