Everything Has Its End.

Summary

The article discusses the complexities of determining the end of a pandemic, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic, and emphasizes the need for continued vigilance despite signs of societal and political fatigue and the relaxation of restrictions.

Abstract

The article "Everything Has Its End." reflects on the challenges of pinpointing the conclusion of a pandemic, contrasting the clear start date with the more ambiguous end. It highlights that while the World Health Organization (WHO) can declare the start of a pandemic, its end is less defined and is influenced by both epidemiological and social factors. The social end is marked by a loss of fear, economic pressures, and a return to normalcy, often despite ongoing infections and deaths worldwide. The article notes the presence of pandemic fatigue and the importance of collective immunity, vaccination, and preventive measures such as mask-wearing and ventilation in public spaces. It also touches on the impact of political decisions and the influence of variants like Omicron on the pandemic's trajectory. Despite progress, the WHO has not declared the COVID-19 pandemic over, and the article calls for caution and adherence to health guidelines until the danger has truly passed.

Opinions

The end of a pandemic is not solely determined by medical and epidemiological factors but also by social behavior and economic considerations.
Society's perception of safety and pandemic fatigue play a significant role in the transition towards normalcy, sometimes prematurely.
Political decisions and individual behavior, such as reduced mask-wearing and increased social gatherings, indicate a shift towards the end of the pandemic socially, if not epidemiologically.
The article suggests that the pandemic is not yet over, citing ongoing infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, particularly in areas like Hong Kong.
The emergence of the Omicron variant and its impact on infection rates, along with the role of vaccines and carnival celebrations, are noted as factors influencing the pandemic's course.
The author emphasizes that despite improvements, caution is still necessary, advocating for vaccination, mask-wearing in risky situations, and proper ventilation to mitigate the spread of COVID-19.

But it has not yet arrived.

Image credit: Covid Art Museum.

One knows or assumes with a good approximation when an epidemic starts. And, better yet, the beginning of a pandemic. In the second case, ever there is an official date. The WHO, based on criteria agreed by many experts, determines it. For example, on March 11, 2020, for the current covid-19 pandemic. It is more complicated to decide when pandemics end (The same applies to wars).

Some scholars of these matters consider that all pandemics end in two ways. One is epidemiological and medical; the second way is the social end. The latter occurs when society has lost its fear. And relaxes or abandons the preventive measures imposed by the authorities. The economy is a determining factor. The politics, the economy itself, and society drive the decision.

The economy is not the only factor. People’s absolute or deceitful safety feeling also plays a decisive role. And the increased collective immunity that results in less severe infections. So fewer hospital admissions and fewer deaths. And above all, it affects mental exhaustion because many people feel pandemic fatigue.

After two years of suffering the current pandemic, some of these factors are present. Political decisions about releasing restrictive rules support this idea. One more issue is individual and collective behavior. For example, one must reduce people wearing masks on the streets and indoors as a suitable probe. Or observe the spectacular increase in the number of social events.

All we must remember is that the pandemic is not over yet. The danger is not over like fire until the flames and embers are gone. There are still many areas of the planet with millions of infected cases. And with thousands of admissions and deaths per day. One must look at what is happening in Hong Kong, a model of the excellent initial control of the pandemic. Today, corpses are piling up outside hospitals.

Figure 2. Share of SARS-CoV-2 sequences that are the omicron variant in ten countries from four continents, September 20, 2021, to March 15, 2022. Credit: Our World in Data.

The explosive omicron variant seems to be to blame (also, there is a new surge in Europe). As the kind (some of less efficacy) and distribution of vaccines. In certain places, the Carnival rampage has also contributed. After it, there was an increase in the infection curve in many cities and countries. A fact that was predictable and thus expected, yet disheartening.

We know that the WHO has not yet closed the pandemic state of covid-19. Today we are much better off than we were a year or two ago, but the danger continues. That is why we should understand some simple things. There are still some stages to cover. Still, we are moving towards the end of the epidemiological catastrophe.

So, it is worth stressing that we should avoid risk scenarios. First and before, we must be getting vaccinated with the triple dose. Or, failing that, we should continue to cover ourselves with masks. I mean when there are some risk situations like many people gathering. Moreover, of course, the meeting places should always be well ventilated. Covid-19 is the best prototype of aerosol respiratory infection. People need to breathe pure air, not annoying viruses.

“Todo tiene su fin” (Everything has its end) is a sad and catchy Spanish song from the eighties (here is the version of Medina Azahara, an Andalucian rock group in Spanish). Without a doubt, it is a painful title when referring to love. In general, it means that all the things that begin end.

Unfortunately, concerning the pandemic, it looks different given the actual data. Because the future has not yet arrived or is it already here?

Be careful, please.

Note: Imagine a world with no covid-19 and no wars.