EV dreams & Public policy
Space public policy 1960’s — land a man on the moon in 10 years, fund it, do it.
EV Public policy 2020s — zero fossil fuel used for light vehicles in less than 20 years and 100% clean energy by 2050. Team with the auto and battery industry, government labs, university research, fund strategic investments, educate the public.
Note: The US government does not restrict the sale of gas vehicles in any year. Some state governments do, but if a consumer wants to buy gas vehicles produced in 2050, they can.
US actions include grants, investment, tax credits and government labs support of both basic research and partnership with universities and industry. State policy varies by state, including additional tax incentives and direct investments in infrastructure for EVs.
Let’s first focus on EV’s for light vehicles and public policy. Also, the benefits of nudging the auto industry and public to embrace EVs is not just for lower pollution. That is only part of the story.
There are additional and strategically significant reasons for EV’s to replace gas vehicles in the US.
Lower fuel cost, stable fuel pricing, improved US security and more stable US economy.
Moving from gas to electric power for light vehicles reduces the demand for oil and will save the US economy about $546 Billion a year in fuel cost once fossil fuel use in vehicles approaches zero. Electric power is about 70% cheaper than using gasoline.
How long will it take to reduce gasoline consumption in the US by 50%? My estimate is by 2033. The analysis is at this link : EV Dreams & Oil.
https://readmedium.com/ev-dreams-oil-653a9b9db01
Essentially the highest users of fossil fuel, mostly commercial applications looking for the lowest cost of ownership, will convert quickly once EV battery energy density and the model configurations match 95% of the market need. In many cases the fuel savings will pay for the EV. The time to reach near 0 use of gas is likely around 2050, a bit longer as most of the consumers are not strongly affected by the price of gas in deciding between gas and EV.
Fossil fuel use in transportation accounts for 50% of US oil consumption. As the demand for oil declines, there is less oil profit for Russian and Middle East terrorists. The fuel prices in the US become more stable and immune to Middle East manipulation of oil supply. This means the US security is stronger and the economy is more stable, and inflation will be lower.
US auto industry, to remain viable, must shift to EV’s or lose the light vehicle market to heavily subsidized EVs from China.
When Tesla replaced BMW’s high profit gas models in Germany and a year later Toyota’s best-selling gas car in the world moved down to second, replaced by the Tesla model Y EV, the auto industry realized that EV’s would eventually win the high margin car market. Tesla proved the EV market was real and did it with 2 to 3 times more profit margin than gas cars.
In the meantime, in China, the EV industry was booming with vendors and rapid market growth. The Chinese EV models were getting better every year. China’s leading vendor, BYD, recently exceeded Tesla in market share worldwide. In 2022 China EV growth rate year over year was 87%, in 2021 the year over year growth rate was 82%. In 2022 the total unit sales in China equaled 6.3 million.
Volvo is owned by China’s Geely holding group and China companies are beginning sales in Europe.
In short, the US auto industry recognized that EV’s would, over the next few decades, replace gas vehicles in all categories and EVs were already winning in high profit, higher priced segments. And China was poised to win the US market.
To encourage investment in the US auto industry, the US government offered $7500 tax credit for buying US made EVs and batteries. This accomplishes two benefits. It increases consumers interest, growing the total market for EVs and encourages the US industry to invest in new car and battery factories sooner than later.
Without the US providing the US industry subsidies to match or at least compete with heavily subsidized vendors in China, the US industry faced higher risks.
New battery technology can grow the domestic battery market and accelerate the growth in EV sales.
The US is investing in start-up companies like Lyten and Ampius and many others in the quest for batteries that are both cheaper and have a higher energy density than the best on the market today. Extra points if the materials are easily sourced in the US. The investments also include US government labs and university labs.
The entire world is reporting progress in new battery technologies with lab results, new batteries sampling and pilot production of batteries and auto industry in the process of testing new battery technology for production.
What is being reported? Twice the energy density of today’s best battery. So a 300 mile battery is replaced with 600 mile range. And half the price per kg. So take the battery technology that offers 600 mile range, cut it half, so half the price for 300 mile. But remember the cost per kg is ½. So the total price is ¼ the price of current 300 mile batteries. And all are reporting a faster charging rate. It is the same story for Li Air, for Li Sulfur, for solid state, for high density Si anodes and so on.
What is the bottom line? EV’s will cost less and have enough range and charging speed to 100% remove range anxiety. In many cases the material sourcing can be 100% US sourced.
The US policy to invest in battery technology and support battery start-up costs has been a work in process for years, with pilot production and samples that are being purchased by the auto industry for evaluation and qualification today.
The electric grid will benefit from EV’s
EVs can be programmed to charge at night, when demand for electric power is low. If the wind is producing power at night with little or no demand, the capital investment return at that moment is low. Add the EV demand at night when demand is low, the return on capital increases, utility rates go down.
Tesla is following GM and Ford and other vendors with built in vehicle to grid features. This allows for the option to power the home for a few days if there is a power failure. It also allows the option, if approved by the local utility commission, to buy electric power when the cost is low and store it in the EV battery and then sell it back when the demand is high and the price is also high. Once there are tens of million EVs, this can be a win win win for utility, EV owner and the public to reduce the cost of power storage to smooth out demand and lower the total capital cost of the utility. TBD if this will be significant.
Climate will benefit from lower pollution. 17% of US CO2 pollution is from light vehicles burning fossil fuel. And there is significant local pollution of carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides harmful to health.
This issue has been explained in some detail. Removing CO2 will make the earth safer, the sooner the better. Replacing fossil fuel with electric power in light vehicles removes the largest US source of greenhouse gas emissions in the US.
EV local pollution of carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides, which can cause high blood pressure and other respiratory issues reduces expected life and increases medical cost for asthma suffers. By 2050 it is estimated that the cumulative EV reduction of local pollution could save 170,000 from an early death and save $1.5 trillion in labor lost and medical costs. Source: The Cool Down
“Electric cars are skyrocketing in popularity — and bringing an unexpected benefit to drivers and passengers”
Story by Mila Dyson
In summary, US policy with respect to light vehicles:
Encourages the shift from gas or diesel to EV’s providing reduce pollution, eventually zero fossil fuel use will save $546 Billion per year in fuel cost, provide stable fuel prices and reduce oil profit for Russian and Middle East terrorist. With policies that reduce the investment risk by the US auto industry to produce EVs and batteries, the auto industry jobs are saved, and the US is not dependent on China for a critical part of our infrastructure.
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