Summary

The article expresses skepticism about Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs reversing the cryptocurrency's decline, suggesting that institutional adoption may not be the panacea for BTC's challenges, which include rising fees, stagnant innovation, and a shift in sentiment among investors and developers.

Abstract

The article on Medium discusses the current state of Bitcoin (BTC), drawing parallels to the period before the 2020 halving but noting key differences, such as changes in leadership at Binance and the influence of crypto influencers. It highlights the challenges faced by BTC, including escalating fees, the underperformance of the Lightning Network, and the susceptibility of LN wallets to censorship. The piece questions the impact of institutional adoption, suggesting that Bitcoin's reliance on such interest may hasten its downfall rather than secure its future. It points out that past events like CME futures and Bakkt, which were expected to be game-changers, did not lead to the anticipated positive outcomes for BTC. The author predicts a short-lived price rally followed by a significant collapse, leading to a mass exodus of investors, including maxis, to alternative networks. The article concludes by affirming the author's belief in Bitcoin Cash as the true peer-to-peer electronic cash system.

Opinions

The author believes that Bitcoin (BTC) is facing significant challenges that are not likely to be resolved by the introduction of ETFs or institutional adoption.
There is a sentiment that Bitcoin's core development has become detached from the original vision of a peer-to-peer electronic cash system.
The article suggests that the Lightning Network has not lived up to its promise and that its development has stalled, leading to disillusionment among its developers.
The piece implies that the influence of crypto influencers and changes in leadership at major exchanges like Binance are negatively impacting the cryptocurrency space.
The author predicts that BTC will experience a brief price surge, possibly reaching a new all-time high, but will then suffer an 80% collapse, leading to widespread disinvestment.
Bitcoin Cash is presented as a vindicated alternative to BTC, with the author asserting that it remains true to Satoshi Nakamoto's original vision.
The article criticizes the narrative pushed by Blockstream and suggests that even staunch BTC supporters will eventually recognize the manipulation and abandon their positions in favor of better networks.

Bitcoin

ETFs Are Unlikely to Reverse The Decline of Bitcoin (BTC)

Curb Your Enthusiasm

The price action of Bitcoin (BTC) and several other cryptocurrencies is almost identical to the months before the 2020 halving.

From the big four cryptocurrencies, the price of Bitcoin BTC, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Cash recovered in 2023, with Bitcoin Cash leading the summer mini-bull run.

Yet, we also have a slightly different sentiment this time, with Binance changing leadership and crypto influencers amassing vast power that could only lead to billions lost from the next custodial collapse.

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing several challenges. Fees keep rising, and Core devs celebrate. Meanwhile, Lightning is not even operational after eight years of development, and even LN devs quit in disgust as the narrative expired.

Custodial LN wallets prove their proneness to censorship as Wallet of Satoshi abandons the US market.

Is the overhyped institutional adoption what was missing?

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Spot ETFs Will Not Change Anything

While there are some benefits to ETFs and institutionalization, it is important to note that Bitcoin’s dependence on institutions will only accelerate the innevitable collapse.

Just the noise around the ETFs further reduces Bitcoin’s disruptive potential.

From a fierce and disruptive competitor to the banking system, Bitcoin (BTC) is reduced to a systemic aligned asset desperate to attract institutional attention.

CME futures and Bakkt were also supposed to change the fate of Bitcoin. Both these events turned out to be “sell the news” (especially CME).

Too many negative signs are there for the BTC version of Bitcoin, and even the fourth halving will disappoint investors expecting extreme returns. Perhaps the ETFs will not assist Bitcoin (BTC) in whatever targets the dedicated fans of this coin set.

What is expected is another rally in Bitcoin’s price, but it is unclear why anyone should invest in this cryptocurrency nowadays.

Other blockchain technologies have innovated, and people are starting to take notice.

Bitcoin Cash keeps getting vindicated as those who opposed Bitcoin Cash are now acknowledging the deception and brainwashing by Blockstream. While some are still supporting the Blockstream agenda and BTC, it is unlikely that this will continue indefinitely.

Conclusion

BTC investors should expect a short-lived price rally with a new ATH (not significantly higher than the previous one) and an 80% collapse right after.

The price action will disappoint speculators and BTC investors, who will begin moving to better networks.

Even the maxiest of the maxis will offload their BTC bags as they will watch the price revisiting 2017 levels (lower than $20k) in 2025.

In the next two years, hodlers will abandon BTC en masse. Even the most devoted BTC supporters are starting to realize the manipulation and indoctrination carried out by Blockstream. Their BTC bags are still heavy, so they hold while waiting for the final pump.

Yet it won’t be long before they abandon the bags, especially when the fourth halving will be an utter disappointment in price terms. .

You already know Bitcoin Cash was right about everything.

You need not ask for permission to join the P2P revolution (again) any time you want. Bitcoin cash, the version of Bitcoin that didn’t sell out to the banks, will be there.