ESPN Trade Machine: Finding the Right Carmelo Anthony Trade

The trading is the hardest part…

Carmelo Anthony wants out, and New York wants him gone too.

Either or both or neither of those statements may be true. New York wants to move on, but only if they get the right return. Melo wants to go because he’s still never found that perfect winning formula outside of every four years at the Olympics. Neither Melo nor the Knicks genuinely want a divorce — by all accounts, Anthony and his wife La La would love to live in New York — but the Knicks roster outside of Porzingis just isn’t good enough to win.

Phil Jackson has said it’s time to trade Carmelo, but that’s easier said than done. Any NBA trade is difficult because it has to favor both sides at once. This trade has to favor three sides — the Knicks, another team, and Melo himself because of his no-trade clause. It’s darn near impossible to please all three.

Another complication: Melo makes over $24 million a year, so the Knicks must receive comparable salary in any deal. The perfect deal would give the Knicks some steep expiring contracts to match Melo’s salary plus talented young players or draft picks. Even more ideal would be to offload Joakim Noah’s salary in a deal, but that means over $41 million in contracts exchanging hands and doesn’t seem super reasonable. The worst Knicks deal is one in which they get back more veterans on long, expensive contracts.

Below are some possible Carmelo Anthony, with the help of ESPN’s NBA Trade Machine. Each is rated on a desirability scale of 1 (terrible) to 10 (perfect) for Melo, for the Knicks, and for the other team. A great trade needs to have a good final score but also balance between all three parties. What’s out there?

Los Angeles Clippers

Melo for Redick, Rivers, Pierce, Stone, and 2021 first

The Clippers are one of Melo’s two preferred destinations, but that doesn’t mean a trade makes sense. Reports this week were that the Knicks might consider a trade with the Clippers that didn’t involve the big three. Insanity.

It’s just not possible for the Knicks to get anything of value from the Clippers without including one of the big names. The 2021 first is the earliest they can move with the Stepien Rule, and Austin Rivers is the only young player who has shown anything at all. Redick is a nice player but on an expiring deal, due a steep raise this summer. He hurts more for the Clippers to give up than he helps the Knicks, but he’s needed to match salary here since it’s impossible to imagine New York taking on Jamal Crawford’s contract.

On top of that, exactly where is Melo going to play and get touches while sharing the court with CP3, Blake, and DeAndre?

Melo score: 10 Knicks score: 2 Clippers score: 7 Trade total: 19

Melo and O’Quinn for Griffin, W.Johnson, and Stone

A Clips trade works a lot better if it involves one of the Clips’ big three, and Blake Griffin makes the most sense for a lot of reasons. He’s weirdly both the most expendable star Clipper (if they’re getting Melo) as well as the most interesting trade chip for New York. It’s hard to imagine them getting a much better player than Griffin, and he feels like a solid fit next to Porzingis.

Blake can (and will) opt out of his contract this summer. If Los Angeles thinks they’re going to lose him for nothing, it makes sense to move on. If things go awry, L.A. could see both CP3 and Blake walk away this summer for nothing, leaving the cupboard very bare. Melo is under contract an extra year, so that’s some added security. It also might just be time for a shake up in Clipper-land. How many times do we have to see this thing fall apart before we try something new? Melo actually seems like a better fit in L.A. than Blake, and he’d get to play with his buddies too.

Is Los Angeles finally ready for such a big move? Would they move on from the player that saved their franchise for an older version on the decline?

Melo score: 9 Knicks score: 8 Clippers score: 6 Trade total: 23

Editor’s note: As pointed out by @AmericanNumbers, this trade alone does not work under the current CBA. Due to the Rose Rule, both Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin cannot be on the same team at once. The Knicks could potentially flip Rose to Philadelphia for Sergio Rodriguez, to Minnesota for Nikola Pekovic, to Brooklyn for Scola, or to Sacramento for Rudy Gay and Ben McLemore.

Boston Celtics

Melo for Smart, A.Johnson, Zeller, and Brooklyn 2018 first

From an outsider perspective, it certainly seems like Boston is the best mutual fit for a Melo trade. The Celtics can’t sit on their war chest of assets forever, and Melo seems like a good fit in theory, giving them the second scorer they’ve sorely lacked. For New York, Boston probably represents the best chance of getting young talent — as well as expiring contracts, which the Celtics have smartly continued to load up on.

There’s some malleability to this trade offer. If Smart and the Brooklyn first are too much, Boston could include some pick protection. Or they could give Jerebeko or Olynyk instead of Smart and make the pick completely unprotected. It’s tough to see them moving this year’s Brooklyn pick when it’s so clearly in line to be top-3 or even #1, but next year who knows where the pick will fall? Just look at the Sixers. Both Smart and the Brooklyn pick are probably better in theory than actuality.

If Boston could trade for Melo without touching it’s starting lineup, they could start him as a small-ball four with IT, Bradley, Crowder, and Horford. That’s a pretty formidable lineup, and they’d still have Jaylen and Rozier off the bench — plus that top-3 pick from Brooklyn this summer. Could that team compete against the Raptors and Cavs?

And if it can, would the Knicks actually want to help a rival? They may not have a better chance to get two prized youngsters without taking on long-term money. If Brad Stevens thinks he can get at least average defense out of Melo, this deal might be a winner for everyone.

Is Melo finally the star player for Boston to cash its chips in on?

Melo score: 9 Knicks score: 10 Celtics score: 7 Trade total: 26

Atlanta Hawks

Melo for Millsap

Yeah, probably not the right trade. Atlanta gets something real before Millsap walks, but does New York? Millsap is a great fit next to Porzingis, but they’d get 35 games of him and maybe a playoff berth before risking losing him for nothing as a free agent.

And as for Melo moving to Atlanta and playing with Dwight Howard…

Melo score: 3 Knicks score: 4 Hawks score: 7 Trade total: 14

Chicago Bulls

Melo for Taj, Rondo, Valentine, and 2017 first

Why not bring the Banana Boat to the Windy City? Chicago isn’t on Melo’s list right now but there’s been mutual interest in the past.

Chicago gets rid of the Rondo problem and rolls with Butler, Wade, and Melo. That would’ve been better a couple years ago, but it’s hard to imagine things much worse than they already are. Why not shake it up and go for it?

There isn’t much of a return for the Knicks, though. Gibson fits well enough but is an expiring contract, so he’d either leave or get too steep of a pay raise this summer to be valuable. Denzel Valentine was a first round pick this year but hasn’t shown much and is old for a rookie, and the Bulls pick would probably fall somewhere in the late teens.

Melo score: 7 Knicks score: 4 Bulls score: 8 Trade total: 19

Orlando Magic

Melo for Gordon, Hezonja, and either Ibaka or Vucevic

Would Melo agree to a trade to the forgettable Magic? No, probably not. Orlando has been a nice destination in the past, and the tax situation makes him a few million dollars extra, but is Melo going to go play for Frank Vogel and this awful roster? It’s tough to imagine.

Which is too bad, because a trade actually makes sense for both sides here. Orlando needs to do something, anything, different. They need a star, and this would at least make them relevant again.

New York gets a lot of talent here. Gordon is a really talented young player and could be a great defensive cover. Hezonja is mostly untapped still, but a fresh start could help. Both Ibaka and Vucevic are good proven starters. They probably won’t get more immediate talent help than here.

Melo score: 2 Knicks score: 9 Magic score: 7 Trade total: 18

Los Angeles Lakers

Melo for Randle and Deng

Would the Lakers trade for Melo?

He doesn’t fit their timeline at all, but when have the Lakers ever had a timeline? They want stars, and they want them now. Wouldn’t it be a very Lakers move to try to accelerate the timeline and give them a proven ticket seller and scorer next to Russell and Ingram?

Deng is a useful but overpaid veteran. The Lakers will want out of his contract sooner than later. The key here is how good Julius Randle is. If the Lakers are still really high on him — and he’s flashed some Draymond-esque skills on offense this year — then they probably keep him and let the kids develop together. If they’re not totally sold, he is a nice sell high.

And couldn’t you see Melo talking himself into being the face of the Lakers franchise now that Kobe is gone? La La would certainly love it. Her name is literally L.A. twice.

This deal might actually be the perfect meh for all there sides. No one really gets what they want, but everyone gets a fresh start. Speaking of fresh starts, could Phil Jackson and Jeanie Buss team up one more time to get this done?

Melo score: 7 Knicks score: 7 Lakers score: 7 Trade total: 21

Houston Rockets

Melo for R.Anderson, Dekker, and 2017 first

What about the Rockets? Melo makes a little extra again without the income tax, and Houston is a huge metro area. Would Melo play with Harden, and would D’Antoni be able to stomach a player that lives in the mid-range?

It’s a solid return for New York, a bit of everything. The pick would be near the end of the first, but Dekker has looked pretty good this year and could turn into a starting wing. Ryan Anderson’s shooting would fit well at the four, though this trade would doom the Knicks on defense. There’s no star potential here but some solid pieces.

The Rockets are whirring right now but what happens when the inevitable Anderson or Gordon injury comes? This might be a moment to sell high. Morey has always been one to wait on a chance to trade for a superstar. Does Melo still count? And is one basketball enough for both Melo and Harden? It’s a risky move but Houston’s all-in on offense anyway. Could this be enough offense to make them a real contender against the Spurs and Warriors?

Harden, Gordon, Ariza, Melo, and Capela is a pretty formidable lineup.

Melo score: 6 Knicks score: 6 Rockets score: 8 Trade total: 20

Melo and C.Lee for R.Anderson and E.Gordon

The Knicks were interested in Gordon this summer and could push for his inclusion in a Melo deal. Courtney Lee is not the shooter that Gordon is, and he’s older, but he can still shoot some and provides the Rockets with some wing defense they’d sorely need with both Harden and Melo.

Eric Gordon has been so good this year, though, and it’s tough to see the Rockets blowing things up totally after such a strong start. There’s probably too much risk for both sides here mid-season.

Melo score: 5 Knicks score: 7 Rockets score: 4 Trade total: 16

San Antonio Spurs

Melo for Aldridge

Now there’s an idea. Aldridge would be an awesome get for the Knicks.

Melo gets a tax break and a real chance at playing for a ring, but would Pop and San Antonio put up with the circus this would entail? There’s a lot of risk involved but a lot of upside too.

The upside? Melo is a mid-range genius and no team knows how to use that skill set better in 2017 than the Spurs. They’d have a second bona fide star next to Kawhi going forward and maybe, just maybe, they’d get themselves into the Chris Paul free agent conversation this summer just in time for Parker and Manu to walk away.

The risk? LMA isn’t a defensive wizard, but Melo next to either Pau Gasol or David Lee is death on defense, no matter who is coaching. Plus it’s easy to see Melo clashing with Pop and the veterans, and the CP3 thing is probably a long shot at best. The Spurs are already awesome right now, right in the mix with the all-everything Warriors, and Aldridge feels more useful against both Golden State and Houston than Melo.

The upside is pretty interesting, but there’s a huge amount of risk here for the Spurs — too much for any team probably, but especially that franchise.

Melo score: 6 Knicks score: 10 Spurs score: 3 Trade total: 19

Cleveland Cavaliers

Melo for Love

Oh right, there’s that one other trade everyone’s talked about for a year now. Love is an obvious fit in New York. They’d be ecstatic to land him.

And before you say forget it for all the obvious reasons — Love is an All Star and playing as well as ever — remember how poorly the Cavs are playing and how badly LeBron wants a shake-up. And remember for a second that Kevin Love was awesome in the final minutes of Game 7 against the Warriors but not always entirely great in that series otherwise.

Are you sure the Cavs don’t match up better against the Warriors with Melo in Love’s place? Are you positive?

And is LeBron positive too?

Melo score: 8 Knicks score: 10 Cavs score: TBD Trade total: 18++

Conclusions

In the end, the best move here is almost certainly no move at all. If the Knicks do want to move on from Melo, they’re probably better off doing it this summer when their hand isn’t so obviously forced, and doing it after they’ve likely moved on from Phil Jackson first. Why handcuff a new front office with whatever Phil decided was the right return for Melo? That makes zero sense.

If there is a trade, it’s difficult to find the right fit. Remember, it’s just an overall trade score that has to line up — all three sides have to feel good about the outcome, good enough to make a major franchise-changing move.

The Rockets are interesting. The Clippers make sense if it’s time to move on from Blake. The Celtics are the best trade fit as always. The Lakers could stick their noses in. And you never totally know with the Cavs and LeBron.

The trading is the hardest part. But the speculation is half the fun.

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