Summary

In 2023, solar energy saw unprecedented growth, with China leading in solar and wind energy developments, while nuclear energy expansion remained steady but not as significant as renewable energy growth.

Abstract

The year 2023 marked a significant milestone in the energy sector, particularly for solar energy, which experienced rapid and expected growth, with global installations reaching between 350 GW and 400 GW. China played a pivotal role in this expansion, surpassing its own record with an additional 164 GW of solar capacity. Wind energy also showed substantial growth, adding over 100 GW globally. Nuclear energy continued to grow, especially in China and Russia, though at a slower pace compared to renewables. The global shift towards renewable energy sources was underscored by the fact that solar and wind power plants collectively, and soon individually, generate more electricity than nuclear power plants. The rise of China as a leader in energy technology production, including solar panels, offshore wind generators, and electric vehicles, has altered global market dynamics, leading to increased geopolitical tensions as Western countries attempt to rebuild their industrial bases through protectionist policies and incentives.

Opinions

The growth of solar PV in 2023 was both unprecedented and expected, with PERC technology losing ground to TOPCon.
Solar panel prices reached historic lows, improving accessibility but challenging the economics of component manufacturing.
China's solar industry growth was more than double from a high base, significantly exceeding initial predictions.
Wind energy also experienced record growth in 2023.
Nuclear power did not witness a renaissance, with its growth rate being lower than that of renewable energy sources.
China's dominance in manufacturing solar panels and components is well-established, but it has also become a technological leader in the broader energy sector.
The post-Soviet space, particularly Uzbekistan, has made significant strides in renewable energy, with ambitious targets for green power plants by 2030.
The US, EU, and India are engaging in protectionism and industrial policy to counter China's technological and industrial dominance in the energy sector.
India has emerged as a major global center for solar panel production and is also investing in the production of electrolyzers.

2023 Energy Results for Solar, Wind & Nuclear

On the eve of 2024, let’s look at the energy results of the outgoing year.

I do not pretend to have a complete picture, and here I primarily cover those sectors that are the main areas of my interests.

Solar energy

Unprecedented (though expected) growth in solar PV. It doesn’t matter exactly how much will be commissioned at the end of the outgoing year — 350 GW or 400 GW. In any case, these will be simply colossal numbers. Never in history has any other generation of technology grown so rapidly. There is no comparison at all. Many countries and regions saw record growth in solar energy in 2023 (China, USA, EU…).

Production capacity for solar panels has reached ~1000 GW. The global solar industry is ready to produce so many devices per year. PERC technology, which is the main one, in 2023 began to quickly lose the position that TOPCon now claims.

Solar panel prices have reached historic lows. This increases the availability of solar electricity but hurts the economics of the components business. Let’s see how manufacturers will feel in 2024. Some may have to fold.

In early December, the “world’s first commercial” solar power plant using perovskite solar panels went into operation in China.

Wind power

Wind energy is also likely to show record growth by the end of 2023, with global installed capacity increasing by more than 100 GW.

Nuclear power

In 2023, the Chinese authorities approved the construction of 10 nuclear reactors, the same number as last year.

Russia remains a leader in the export of nuclear energy technologies — it is building more than 20 nuclear reactors abroad.

Germany buried its nuclear energy industry.

The French nuclear energy industry continued to be in a fever.

In general, despite the conversations going on in different countries about the advisability of more active construction of nuclear power plants, we do not yet see the approach of a nuclear renaissance. Solar and wind power plants (together) generate more electricity worldwide per year than nuclear power plants. Soon they will produce more separately. The growth rates are not comparable.

China

China surprises every year, but in 2023 it surprised especially. At the beginning of the year, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) predicted that China would commission 95–120 GW of solar power plants in 2023 (in 2022, the commissioning of new solar capacity was 87.4 GW, which was a record figure). At the end of November, the increase amounted to 164 GW. Market growth more than doubled in a year, from a high base. Incredible.

According to preliminary official data, the share of solar and wind exceeded 15% of electricity consumption in China in 2023. For comparison, nuclear power plants generate approximately 5% of electricity there (and China has a large nuclear power industry, which produces more electricity than France, especially Russia).

China has been the largest manufacturer of solar panels and their components for about a decade. Everyone is already used to this. Over the past few years, China has become a technological leader in the solar industry, including the production of capital goods. We have already started to get used to this. But in 2023, China suddenly made serious bids for technological leadership in two other important segments of the “new energy”: the production of offshore wind generators and electric vehicles. Of course, the Chinese are also leaders in battery production and technology.

As a result, the “countries of the Great West” have ceased to be the main suppliers of energy technologies to the world market. This will lead to further rising geopolitical tensions as their power base is eroded.

Post-Soviet space

In the post-Soviet space, Uzbekistan stands out sharply in the field of development of “new energy”. At the end of the year, the President of this country, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, inaugurated 5 solar and 1 wind power plant with a total capacity of 2.4 GW. At the same event, it was stated that “in general, by 2030, it is planned to increase the capacity of “green” power plants to 27 gigawatts,” although in 2020 they were talking about “only” 8 gigawatts (SPP + WPP) by 2030. Also in the country Projects for the production of “green” hydrogen have already begun.

Protectionism and industrial policy

China’s dominance in the industrial and technological sphere does not suit the US, EU, and India. They have long been trying to create (or recreate) their industrial base, using various incentives for this, as well as introducing customs tariffs and similar instruments that make it difficult to import Chinese products.

Under current international tensions, protectionism is on the rise. Europe so far is mostly just threatening various punishments. The United States has done quite a lot and is managing to attract both European and Chinese manufacturers of solar panels. However, we are talking more about creating assembly plants, which will not provide a strong increase in American technological competencies.

India has achieved the greatest success. It has become the second global center for the production of solar panels, a major exporter to the United States, and is also implementing an ambitious program to establish its production of electrolyzers.