Elon Musk Says Ukraine Will Lose the War

Elon Musk: “There’s is no way in hell” Putin could lose to Ukraine.

Investor and Tesla CEO Elon Musk claims the American government is wrong to fund Ukraine. He thinks there’s no way Vladimir Putin will back down to Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Does his assumption hold up?

Discussions surround a bill slated to provide more monetary help. The $90 billion funding allocates $60 billion for Ukraine aid. The difference is for humanitarian aid to Israel, Taiwan, and Gaza. Musk opposed the legislation. Alongside him is former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. State representatives Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, JD Vance of Ohio, and Mike Lee of Utah. And the co-founder of Craft Ventures LLC, David Sacks. Musk agreed with Ron Johnson, who said those believing in Ukraine’s win are “living in a fantasy land.” Vance added, “We gotta kill this thing.”

Ukraine’s win isn’t workable with the type of support the country receives.

“This spending does not help Ukraine. Prolonging the war does not help Ukraine,” he said to Bloomberg.

European, Asian, and NATO allies have committed over $178 billion to support Ukraine. And since February 2022, the US has also allocated $113.4 billion in emergency funding. Of the sum set aside, over $60 billion in funding and equipment went to the country.

How is the $60 billion split? More than $43 billion in security help since February 24, 2022. And $23 billion in humanitarian and economic aid since July 2023. Repayment has an undetermined date down the line. On August 10, 2023, President Biden asked Congress for an extra $24 billion. Congress did not approve this request. President Joe Biden has signed 47 drawdowns as of September 21, 2023.

The US Defense Department shares a supplies list of equipment sent to Ukraine. For example…

In a CNN report, Ukraine reported its air defenses are better than ever but imperfect. Here’s an excerpt. “Still, some drones and missiles do break through Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defenses. Sometimes their impact is minimal. But sometimes it is devastating, such as Friday’s deadly strike in the city of Dnipro.” Advancement of the country’s military systems is good. However, the country remains behind with a constant need to maintain strongholds. Plus, defends against attacks. Almost two years after Russia invaded Ukraine. Yet the fight seems a lot like the two-decade-long Iraq mission.

I infer Musk and his thought allies would be more supportive of Ukraine funding if Ukraine advanced into Russia’s borders. If Ukraine became a threat to Russia, rather than stay on the defensive.

Ukraine’s win isn’t workable with its population.

Casualties of the war. “In December 2023, the Ministry updated its claim of Ukrainian military casualties to 383,000 killed and wounded, with 125,000 of these troops lost since the start of the counteroffensive. In addition, the DPR confirmed that by 22 December 2022, 4,163 of their servicemen had been killed and 17,329 wounded.”

Russia’s hits on Ukraine have been strategic to create a problematic population outlook. On 9 March 2022, Russia bombed Maternity Hospital No 3. It served as a maternity ward and children’s hospital in Mariupol, Ukraine. In December 2022, maternity ward targeting continued in Kherson. Reduced access to healthcare, lowers the desire to have children. Not to mention, the possibility of safe births.

Stats says 30% of Ukraine’s population left the country when the war began.

Financial Times asserts manpower is Ukraine’s latest war challenge. General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s top military commander said the country struggles “to build (soldier) reserves. Zaluzhnyi about the problem in an opinion article. It reads, “However, our capacity to train reserves on our own territory is also limited. We cannot easily spare soldiers who are deployed to the front, [and] Russia can strike training centers. And there are gaps in our legislation that allow citizens to evade their responsibilities."

The most impactful of all is the reduction of Ukraine’s young male population. It’s created small villages of only women. After one more year of war, Ukraine could lose another 1–1.5 million young, educated men. This reality is seriously unfortunate as America has no plans to send in troops into Ukraine.

Ultimately. Musk believes in Putin because he is much like Russia’s leader.

Some would also label Musk a controlling bully. One who does what he pleases to build an empire he sees fit where he should be the only one allowed to rule. Elon Musk is a dictator with his strong beliefs against work-from-home policies. Musk took back possession of productivity he thought lost to remote arrangements. He chooses business exploration in areas where he is first with total control. Musk’s empire includes X, Tesla, SpaceX, and Neuralink. If the government or advertisers try to tell him, he throws social media tantrums. Or move his office headquarters.

Tesla almost went belly-up after Elon left to head X. It’s this same argument he uses to explain Putin’s need to win. “For those who want regime change in Russia, they should think about who is the person that could take out Putin, and is that person likely to be a peacenik? Probably not.” Musk said a replacement could be “even more hardcore than Putin,” reported by Bloomberg. Hinting Putin’s replacement could just as likely become drunk with a desire to continue Russia’s expansion plan.

Ukraine’s win isn’t workable with its population.

While not voiced, SpaceX founder Musk could be worrying about government contract availability. Money is likely a serious motivator for Musk’s sentiments. In 2020, SpaceX signed a $653 million contract with the US Air Force. Back in April 2021, SpaceX gained a $2.89 billion contract with NASA. Rolling into Sept 1, 2023, the disbursement was far less. SpaceX won a Pentagon $70 million contract for Starfield. The developing satellite network will be for military use.

Is Musk right or wrong, only time will tell. But it is clear to me and the world Ukrainians won’t let Russia annex their country without a defiant resistance.

How do you think the Ukraine-Russia war will play out? How do you feel about Musk’s opinion on the victor?

Your thoughts?