Elon Musk: Putin’s Bane

He has hurt Russia more than you think.

The situation in Ukraine right now is unthinkable. The Hague believes there is sufficient evidence to investigate Russia for committing war crimes, which shows just how dire the situation is. Currently, thousands of brave Ukrainians are taking up arms to defend their democracy and freedom from Putin’s operation. Meanwhile, the West is in a tricky position. They can’t let Russia overthrow a sovereign nation, but they also can’t risk nuclear war. Instead, vast numbers of countries have placed crippling sanctions on Russia, frozen Russian assets and stopped them using international banking services. These are all powerful new measures, but one man has been causing Putin grief for years and is currently twisting this dagger in his side. That unlikely man is Elon Musk. But can he make a difference in the face of Putin’s aggression?

I have written about Musk for years and I try to be balanced as he is a complex man, but in researching how he has impacted Russia, I have to applaud him. For well over a decade he has been a pain in Putin’s backside, from taking away their domination of space to threatening their economy, and now he is even giving Ukrainians a critical advantage that could turn the war in their favour.

First, Musk’s SpaceX dealt an enormous blow to Russia by taking away the Soyuz domination of space. When the Space Shuttle ceased operations in 2011, only the Russian Soyuz rocket was capable of supplying the ISS with crew and supplies. The US was at the mercy of Russia’s space monopoly and had to spend billions on securing trips to space to continue its research.

Not only did Russia have a profitable monopoly on human space flight, but also a powerful international bargaining chip. If the US or Europe did something Russia didn’t like, they could threaten to cut off the international space station, meaning billions of dollars worth of development and research would be lost.

Musk noticed this precarious position and knew he could change it.

In June 2020, a Falcon 9 rocket launched with a SpaceX Dragon capsule containing two US astronauts and delivered them to the ISS. Since then, several crew and supply missions have been carried out by SpaceX. Not only had Musk broken Russia’s monopoly, but it had also massively undercut it in price and taken away a vital part of Russian international power.

However, Russia is still responsible for thrust onboard the ISS. This keeps the multi-billion dollar station in orbit and allows them to steer around space debris. As the US started to react to the war in Ukraine, Russia tried to flex this last hold over the US by threatening to stop ISS thrust operations and let the station drift back down to Earth in a fiery ball.

But yet again Musk was there to foil their plans. In a tweet, he stated that if Russia ceased operating the ISS, SpaceX would supply the station with several thrusters and take over this vital service.

Musk’s actions have meant that countries worldwide could indite significant sanctions against Russia without fear of losing their vital space research. But Musk has done far more than just obliterate Russia’s space dominance. Tesla is also a massive threat to Russia.

Russia doesn’t have a large economy with a GDP of only $1.4 trillion (about the same size as Italy or about 15 times smaller than the USA’s). But the vast majority of the country’s economy is based on the fossil fuel industry. For example, in 2017, gas made up over 60% of Russian exports.

Musk is pioneering an electric vehicle revolution, not to mention a home solar off-grid revolution too. As Tesla becomes more and more successful the average person’s dependency on fossil fuels and Russia is decreased. He is pushing this fossil-fuel-free movement so hard that other companies are following suit to avoid getting left behind. All of this means that Russia’s small, fossil-fuel dependent economy could be severely damaged as the rest of the world goes solar and electric.

The Kremlin knows this and has even been caught spreading anti-climate change propaganda to try and stifle the eco-movement, all because their economy can’t survive the transition to renewables.

But these are only the big picture actions Musk has taken that piss off Putin. The real middle finger is what Musk is doing with Starlink.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is quite old-school. Their missile strikes have hit communications towers, airports and vital internet infrastructure (along with potential civilian targets). The idea is to stop Ukrainian troops from regrouping and repositioning (take out the airports) and cut off their communications. This will leave the defending soldiers spread out and isolated, making them easier to overwhelm.

This also avoids deadly guerrilla warfare, where a small, well-organised force in close-combat situations can overthrow a much larger, better-equipped army.

Musk knows that Ukraine’s only chance is to use guerrilla warfare. To do this they need crystal clear communications and accurate intelligence to outmanoeuvre, ambush and sabotage the Russian forces. But, without a method of communication, this can’t happen. Musk has a solution.

Starlink is Musk’s answer to mobile internet. A constellation of thousands of satellites that can broadcast high-speed internet anywhere in the world. Currently, this service is only available in a few countries and you need specialist Starlink terminals to connect to it.

This hasn’t deterred Musk. After receiving a tweet from President Zelensky, Musk turned on Starlink over Ukraine and has supplied hundreds of Starlink terminals to the Ukraine for free.

Thanks to Musk’s generous donation, Ukrainian troops can now communicate with each other and the outside world. They can gather intelligence, organise attacks and show the world Russia’s true aggression. Even better, Putin can’t destroy Starlink. So yet again, Musk has flung a spanner into Putin’s plans and, in the process, given Ukraine a vital piece of technology that enables them to perform lethal guerrilla warfare.

So, can Musk make a difference?

His actions have enabled those in power to deal heavier blows to Russia, whether that is a country able to put harsh sanctions on Russia with less fear or giving the heroic Ukrainian troops the technology to organise their deadly forces. Musk is only playing a minor role, but it is still making a difference. Let’s hope that together, we can end this horrific war and protect international freedom and democracy.