Doom in Five…Four…Three…Two…One…

An essay by Sharon Astyk.

This essay was first published on May 17.

Couple of things first —

Sharon will be live, talking about gardening, on Saturday May 20 at 8 pm EST. Click here to register!

This is a long post, but incredibly useful and worth reading all the way the way through. I’m printing it out.

I really wanted to call this one Tick…Tick…Doom. But I practiced restraint.

— Shaunta

You have just five minutes to get to shelter….

Only ten minutes to pack before you must be ready to evacuate..

Thirty minutes to grab your kids and pets and get everyone to a safe place…

An hour left with the cell phone working to reach your extended family and find a meeting place…

Three hours to get the basement or the shelter ready for the coming influx.

Eight hours until the predicted disaster… Just one day to prepare for refugees…

A week to get a thousand things under control before it all goes to hell.

What do you do with that time?

What happens if you suddenly realize that the world is about to change radically in deep and long term ways — that is, some kind of major disaster is coming your way?

Everything you know is about to be upended. You may not have power, needed medications, or other items — whatever your preparations THIS IS IT.

You may be facing fire, flood, chemical contamination, tornado, hurricane, power outage, a bomb, civil conflict in a matter of minutes or hours or at most days.

I want to be entirely clear that we are not talking about the END of the world, because that’s way less likely and humans are strangely effective at surviving in awful situations and no one here really needs lessons in fervent prayer, cussing, weeping or kissing one’s ass goodbye.

So we’re going to assume that whatever doom is approaching rapidly is survivable and we get to go forward and live in this new and changed world.

The default assumption is that we and our loved ones are going to do our best to get through, and to help others.

So I’m going to ask the question — what should you do if you know it is coming, and have a little bit of time to prepare and how would it be different if you had a very little time, or more?

How do you avoid spending the last minutes of normalcy running around like a chicken with your head cut off, missing important things?

So the first thing to know is that I am NOT writing this post because I have any special knowledge that the apocalypse is about to hit us.

So no panicking, and as Eric’s grandmother used to say, no need to get your kidneys in an uproar. Promise.

If you’d enjoy a good panic, and are a little disappointed that this is just a thought experiment, you can feel free to scan my other writings for legitimate reasons to lose it. But this one is purely speculative.

This essay was inspired by an article I posted recently that showed that a Carrington Event level solar flare could hit earth with only 30 minutes notice.

On a discussion group I’m part of, someone asked “Well, what are we supposed to do with 30 minutes before disaster?” and that sent my mind a-roaming.

I was originally going to differentiate between what you should do for various kinds of disasters, but the problem is that’s kind of silly. It isn’t just the type of disaster, but how close you are, and when you hear about the problem and how much time you need, what you have to do, and what kinds of resources you have, that matters.

A mega-volcano eruption might be something you get less than an hour’s notice about, or six weeks, depending on the type of eruption.

One person with half an hour to evacuate might have time to sort through favorite pictures and make some optional choices, while another person is still trying to drag their cats out from under the bed and has to leave with no clothing.

Three days’ notice on a mega-hurricane could be plenty of time to evacuate in your car— or not nearly enough if you rely on public transportation.

The able-bodied might be able to get on a bike or outrun a localized disaster, someone else might not be able to get down the stairs.

Even the question of whether to stay or run depends a lot on your circumstances. Do you have a private vehicle? Somewhere to go? Pets or livestock? How likely is the disaster to get close?

So instead of diving by type of disaster, I’m going to divide by time and into two categories— evacuation disaster and stay in place disaster. I’ll give you priorities for each, but obviously, this is just a starting point for you to figure out a plan for yourself and your particular circumstances.

All of us do some evaluation of likely disasters for our regions.

Ones that are particularly likely or recur often are the ones we are most likely to be somewhat prepared for.

For example, folks in Florida are usually better prepared for hurricanes than folks in Minnesota. Montana people are better prepared for blizzards than Houston people. Californians are better prepared for earthquakes than folks from Missouri (which is weird, because most people don’t realize that the biggest earthquake in US history was epicentered around Missouri.)

This is just common sense, and it is wise to use this planning.

But this planning has a corollary issue, which is that the most dangerous disasters tend to be ones where they ARE NOT the ones you expect — floods in California, Blizzards and ice storms in the South, Wildfires in the Pacific NW.

Disasters tend to be most deadly when we underestimate them.

I’ve made that mistake. Two of the most dangerous natural disasters to ever affect my family were tornadoes.

We don’t live anywhere near tornado alley, and I wouldn’t have even put tornadoes on my list of worries before this.

In the first case, a tornado hit our community, and did tremendous damage, and we didn’t have any tornado or weather alerts set up, because we didn’t realize we’d need them — we thought our extremely hilly landscape would protect us.

We were fortunate, but we lost a lot of trees and neighbors were seriously damaged. Still, it could have been a lot worse. We had no idea it was even coming, and it was just good luck we were home and not on the road or outside when it hit.

The second time was when I straight out ignored a tornado warning while traveling to visit family because “Ha Ha, Northeastern tornadoes, nbd, we’ll be driving through the mountains, that won’t happen.”

Well, guess what, it did. We were able to take shelter, but it was incredibly stupid of me.

So when you apply these scenarios to your thinking, please don’t completely dismiss the ones that seem less likely.

The reality is that a changing climate means that we will probably all experience wildfires, extreme flooding, heat waves, and heavy storms. All of us are vulnerable to attacks on the power grid and solar storms. All of us are vulnerable to chemical contamination.

While it would have to be a hell of a large volcano to affect my family with lava or ash, the changes in the climate that follow could alter the whole world.

All of us are vulnerable to civil unrest. Don’t count out things you haven’t thought about, and don’t let confirmation bias control your thinking as we sort through the possibilities.

5 MINUTES

Something big is coming, and you missed the first warning because you were in a meeting. Or there was no prior warning.

The first notice you get is the sight or sirens that something bad is happening RIGHT NOW.

Pretty much every disaster scenario that happens in minutes shows that the people who respond FIRST and FASTEST do the best. That’s because most people take a few minutes to sort out what’s happening, and few people want to be seen over-reacting to something.

So embarrassment, and peer pressure often keep us still and waiting.

Don’t be one of the people who stands there. The first rule of five minutes is to figure out what you are going to do and GO DO IT. Encourage others to do the same.

The second rule is LIVING THINGS ONLY — people, people, people, pets and livestock.

Do not worry about stuff until all the living things are safe.

5 MINUTES — EVACUATION

In the case of a fire, earthquake, bomb or something that might make your building collapse or be dangerous, GET OUT and seek safe shelter, if you can.

Evaluate quickly whether you are going to be able to make it out. DO NOT waste time getting stuff. Just go and help people who may need it, your kids, elderly folk — remember, disabled coworkers or community members may be left behind.

Every second counts, so just go. Screw your purse, your favorite picture, etc… Only living things count here. Go.

And then start looking for safe shelter.

If you must be outside and help isn’t coming, find a sheltered spot and do everything you can to get under cover or away from the dangerous stuff.

Most of that five minutes will be spent moving, getting out and away. There is no time for other things, so don’t get distracted by anything other than helping others.

Help others as much as you can.

5 MINUTES — STAY IN PLACE

Maybe you know you can’t navigate seven flights of stairs fast enough, or maybe home is the safest place.

Get yourself and everyone in the house into the safest spot NOW.

That could be a basement, it could be an inner room, it could be near an exit in case you have to run for it.

Grab kids, family, pets (but your pets are more likely to save themselves than you are them, so if you can’t grab them, don’t risk your own life to save them).

If you have extra time, once everyone is safe, send the fastest, most able bodied people to make the situation safer by:

• reinforcing the space
• protecting yourselves from radiation, chemical exposure or smoke
• grabbing food and water or whatever might help, while others ready the safe space.

But again, stuff is less important than people.

If you have ten or fifteen or twenty minutes, you can use that additional time, once you have figured out the best evacuation or safe space route, FIRST AND FOREMOST TO HELPED OTHERS to:

• Add resources (food, water, masks, medication, medical equipment, blankets)
• Contact others — call your loved ones and tell them where you are and set up a meeting place.
• Warn others who may be paralyzed by panic that they need to move.
• Think for a minute about bad stuff that might happen and how you will handle it — might you need to get to higher ground?
• When the fire reaches your area, will you be able to get out?
• Do you have anything to fight back with?

Obviously this depends on your situation, but the more planning and organizing you can do in those few minutes, the better your chances of safety and survival.

Ideally, collaborate with others if you can find them, and divide the tasks up — one person calls everyone’s families while another raids the vending machine for food and gets people’s purses with their meds.

30 MINUTES

In this scenario you are still mostly thinking about LIVING THINGS but have the luxury of grabbing a few personal items or making a few fast physical preparations IF AND WHEN all the LIVING THINGS are taken care of.

That means a person with young kids and pets, or those who move slowly will probably have little or no time to gather personal items, and their situation may be much closer to a 5 minutes scenario.

Others may have more options at the 30 minute end.

ALWAYS put the humans first, then pets and livestock, then stuff like documents and personal items.

My suggestion, if you are evacuating in any kind of vehicle or evacuating children, is to get the kids or vulnerable folks together in safe space if possible. Strapped into their car seats, on a chair out front away from the house, etc… AND THEN go back for other things.

Moving a group of people is easier if you practice. Your family should have a fire or emergency evacuation plan, a meeting place, and a plan for how to communicate and where to go if you aren’t all together. Now is the time to put that plan in motion.

30 MINUTES — EVACUATION

Are you and your loved ones together?

If you aren’t, much of your time may be spent grabbing the kids from school, picking up your Mom at her house, making arrangements to meet your adult son and his spouse somewhere.

It is infinitely easier if you have some kind of plan and prior discussion.

Get your kids, your pets and your family members together. Once that is done, you have people who can help you. Divide the labor up quickly — oldest child is in charge of getting the two littlest out and into the car, middle child fills the water bottles and grabs everyone’s favorite stuffed animals, you grab the important documents, meds and the laundry hamper

(The laundry hamper is a cool trick, because it has the clothes everyone actually wears most often in it, so even if you have evacuation kits, which you should, grab the hamper!)

If you only have littles, or you are the caregiver for elderly or disabled folks, it may be as much as you can do to get everyone out. If you have the time, grab the most urgent things.

They include, besides purse, phone, etc… and depending on whether you are going to be walking, driving etc…

• A box with your most important documents
• All the cash you have
• Evacuation kit (you need to make this way ahead, you cannot do it at the time, there isn’t time— Google “bug out bag”)
• Some food and water, including any special diet items
• Medications, and copies of prescriptions. First aid items. Masks.
• Pet food and equipment
• Manual maps, in case satellites or cell service is down, so you can get where you are going
• Beloved stuffed toys and/or most important photos ONLY IF THERE’S TIME AFTER EVERYTHING ELSE IS OUT
• Blankets and pillows for everyone if there’s time.

When you leave, how far you get will depend on how you are traveling.

Are you in a private vehicle? Using public transport? On bikes? On foot?

If on foot, divide resources evenly by physical strength and expect to move slowly. On bikes, lash personal items to the bikes. Grab your laundry cart, stroller or a wagon to put things in if you’ve got one.

If you’ve pulled out too much, can you find a place to leave personal items and return for them later, or will you have to evacuate for the long term?

Sort quickly what you really, really need. If you have a vehicle, cram it tight, and take as much as you can — you will probably want it if you need to go to a shelter or move in with others.

If you have a vehicle and more spaces in it than you will need, seriously consider picking up a neighbor who may not be able to evacuate on their own or someone on foot.

If you are single and able bodied, or can get yourself ready to go quickly, please turn your resources to your friends, neighbors and those around you who may be less able but equally need to evacuate.

Knock on neighbors doors. Make sure they know what’s coming, and offer to help. Recognize they may not make the same decisions you make, for reasons that make sense for them. Think about who you know in your community that might not have the knowledge, physical ability and resources to get to safety, and help them, if you can.

30 MINUTES — STAY IN PLACE

You have 30 minutes warning that something bad is coming your way. Think quickly about the best way to survive the particular thing.

Will you be safer in a particular place in your home? If it is a nuclear bomb, you are going to the basement. A flash flood, you are headed up. If the heat is going to be out, you may need to move people into warmer areas of your house to camp out.

Make a decision about how you will survive this and where you are all going to be, and go — get everyone into that safe space. ONCE EVERYONE IS SAFE OR KNOWS WHERE TO GO, assign jobs and a time limit for doing them.

One person releases or secures the livestock. Another person runs up the attic to get the lanterns and air filters. Someone watches the littlest or helps grandma. Someone ransacks the kitchen for easy to eat food and water and brings it upstairs, then brings down the mattresses.

Are there preps you can top off or make in 30 minutes AFTER SECURING PEOPLE AND ANIMALS? Yes. Here are some, depending on the situation.

• fill containers with tap water
• charge your phone
• send messages to loved ones letting them know what you are doing and letting them know they can come to you
• do an albuterol treatment
• heat up dinner
• dig out the kerosene lamps
• Build a fire in the fireplace
• board a couple of windows or hose the roof of your house and move flammables away
• bring medical equipment in and set it up
• alert local emergency services
• barricade a room
• refill the livestock water tank
• take the dog to the potty
• protect your electronics from solar radiation
• pick up your girlfriend

What you won’t be able to do is all of the above.

So you are going to have to prioritize — what’s most urgent, what will help you the most.

If you think this will be a short-duration emergency, concentrate on short term comfort.

If it has the potential to get much worse or be lasting, you want to prioritize not near term ease and comfort, but long term survival and quality of life.

That is, if you might be in a long-term emergency, you are better off bringing in buckets to use as a temporary toilet than in getting dinner ready.

If the worst comes to worst you can eat dinner cold, but you will be sad if you have no where to potty.

Again, if you have time to meet more than immediate needs, HELP YOUR NEIGHBORS, EXTENDED FAMILY AND FRIENDS.

If you are fortunate enough that you are moving only healthy, able-bodied people, you can set up and then ask your elderly neighbors or a close-by disabled friend if they need a hand.

Maybe your friend is frantic because she only has time to pick up one kid from school. Could you can grab the other? Maybe your neighbors need help getting to the second floor or down into the basement.

If you have time to spare after caring for yourself, your family, your pets and your livestock reach out to others, PLEASE.

2 HOURS

Now we are getting into real time to do stuff.

It is still possible that two hours will be barely sufficient or insufficient for the most basic situation. Here are some considerations.

How far do you have to go to get somewhere safe?

How hard is it physically for you to make yourself safe where you are or get where you need to go?

Maybe two hours is just enough for you to be able to get yourself and your pets upstairs and settled with basic needs. Or half an hour may be wasted waiting for late bus, and you can’t do a damned thing about that.

Maybe you have newborn twins, a farm full of livestock, a disabled parent, or kids at three schools, and all you can do in two hours is get everyone to safety.

Again, if any of these, or anything like them, are the case for you, your two hours is really five minutes or thirty minutes. Use those guides accordingly.

And if you aren’t sure, err on the side of moving faster and leaving stuff behind or undone.

Human safety and survival first, then pets and livestock, then everything else.

But if you DO have a little more time, and can ensure those basic needs are met, you can get a little further ahead.

One thing to do if you are over forty, unless you are already on blood thinners, is to take a baby aspirin as soon as you see this coming.

You are going to be spending either hours sitting in the car or hours doing heavy physical labor getting ready. You could be sleeping crammed in cramped spaces or having to stay still in crowded places, or you may be walking carrying more than you are used to.

The last thing you need is a heart attack. Seriously, take the damned aspirin.

2 HOURS — EVACUATION

First, do all the stuff from the 30 minute list.

Then, work out rendezvous points with friends, family, or others in the same situation.

Add in a few more comforts, including:

• things to entertain children or adults during long boring stretches in shelters
• any documents that weren’t in the first batch
• favorite photos or heirlooms
• over-the-counter meds
• anything that will dramatically improve quality of life if you are gone for a while or never get to come back.

BUT DO NOT WASTE ALL YOUR TIME ON THIS.

Once that is done, then:

• Make reservations if you can — airbnb, hotel, or call a family member and ask if you can stay. Always better to ask first, even if previous scenarios didn’t give you time to do so.
• Secure your home. If you are facing a storm, board windows and put lawn furniture away. If you are facing wildfires and can, remove flammables or water your roof. If it may freeze, drain your pipes. If it might flood, move valuables upstairs. If you are facing civil violence, lock up.
• Contact anyone you haven’t been able to get or reach and leave instructions for making contact later.
• Call and renew any available prescriptions if you can do so quickly, and pick up meds on the way out.
• Stop at an ATM and take out as much cash as you can.
• Go to the grocery store (bodega, dollar store, wherever you can get) and buy portable food, some treats and snacks, easy to eat things that won’t spoil, over-the-counter meds, masks, air filters, any pet supplies you need (IF YOU CAN — it is possible these will be unavailable or hard to get for a while)
• Use any remaining time to help others or cover more ground.

Remember, if many people are evacuating, it may take longer than you think. ALWAYS HAVE PAPER MAPS in your car or evacuation kit. Always have a back-route plan — most people will be on the main highways.

I strongly recommend you NOT divide up to go run errands unless you are ABSOLUTELY sure that you have plenty of time. Too many things can go wrong, from long lines at the stores, to an accident, to things moving faster than expected.

It is too easy to get separated.

Make your evacuation plan and then go TOGETHER to get anything you need, even if that seems slower. If the first stores are packed, consider just getting cash and leaving and trying a store outside the evacuation area.

2 HOURS — STAY IN PLACE

I don’t care what kind of disaster it is, if I am staying and the world is ending, the first thing I’m going to do after I make sure the humans and animals are safe and do the basics is LAUNDRY.

Seriously.

So put on a load of laundry — even if you don’t get it in a dryer (or don’t use one) it is done, at least, and clean and can be hung somewhere.

If you have enough humans available, I’d assign someone to do the dishes too, because without running water, those will pile up.

If you have time, take a shower and wash your hair — who knows when you will get to do that again?

How many errands you can run in a couple of hours really depends on how close you live to town and what you need.

Prioritize medications over food, water over food (but don’t buy water unless you have to, just fill containers while it is still running), then food for humans, and then pet and livestock feed.

In a perfect world you already have food storage and other resources in place, but if not, go through the list and figure out what you can realistically do AFTER you have done all the thirty minute stuff.

Maybe there’s time to run to the food pantry and it is actually open?

Maybe you know it will be several hours for your med refill, but that you can get to the grocery store in five minutes. Can you pick up your parents’ meds, too? Fill the gas can? Help a neighbor get set up?

At a minimum, you will want cash and gas in your vehicle in case things change and you need to evacuate.

With two hours or more, you have time to get some things set up.

• Make emergency shelters on higher ground for your livestock
• move beds into the basement
• set up a generator
• make an outdoor cooking station
• put up LED lights
• get ready for refugees
• fill the water tank
• dig out the snow boots
• fence off the poultry
• anchor down the lawn furniture
• put on a pot of soup
• make some quality of life and safety preparations.

Again, the issue is that you can’t do ALL those things, so you will need to prioritize. Remember, that if you have to leave the site, you will likely have little time to do at-home prep. If you have to stay on site, unless you can divide and conquer, you will have to give up the things errands might have brought you.

Choose wisely, because you probably can’t have both.

In a perfect situation, you are already a prepper and have most of what you need at home, so little need to go to the store — but most of us aren’t perfect.

In a perfect situation, home is always already disaster ready, and there’s little to do. And as long as we’re living in fantasy land, the laundry is always done and folded, the sink is empty and your hair is clean and magic fairies just delivered pizza and beer.

The truth is that even the most prepared people, with the least limited funds and resources, are always missing stuff.

You will have to triage. If you have a couple of hours’ notice to prepare, and your whole community is prepping, it is probably a good idea to collaborate with friends and neighbors. One friend watches all the kids and makes soup and bread while another goes to the drugstore and the grocery store and a third to the hardware store and to pick up any kids at school.

These kinds of arrangements are easiest if you ALREADY HAVE THEM IN PLACE but can also be made on the fly.

If you are in a good place, it is incumbent on you to help others. Period.

Also, remember that after the acute phase of any crisis, evacuees come back to disaster, or refugees arrive.

If you have a few minutes to think, spend some brain energy on what you will do to help others long term. Remember, any of us could have to evacuate at any time, and will rely on others for help. Being able to provide a safe space for refugees is something that many of us will need paid back.

SIX TO TWELVE HOURS

Now we are getting somewhere. You have an emergency, you can see it coming, but you HAVE TIME.

Now the first thing you need to do, if at all possible, is to make your time your own.

The problem with 6–12 hours notice about a disaster is that your boss may well think that there’s no reason you can’t come in to work. One thing you should do with this longer notice is stake out time if at all possible — at a minimum leave work early or call in. You will want all this time.

The first thing you are going to do whether you are staying or leaving is something different than if you had less time — you now have enough time to spend 15–20 minutes in planning and organizing, and you should definitely do that. It will pay you back in time saved later.

Two hours or less, it probably isn’t worth the time it takes, but beyond 4 hours, definitely.

Make a list of everything you need to do — each marked with a 1, 2, or 3.

Items with a 1 next to them MUST BE COMPLETED, because they are part of life, safety and health. They include readying your site (whether you are staying or evacuating) for the disaster, packing and organizing, meeting health needs, safety stuff, etc.)

Items with a 2 are important to quality of life in a longer term disaster. These should be “if this went on for a while, what really matters to me?”

Items with a 3 next to them would be nice, but will only happen if there is time.

Next, assemble your team.

It is possible, if you live alone in an isolated area, that your team is just you. But even if you have few neighbors, you will get more done with them than without, even if you aren’t friends most of the time.

Obviously, you shouldn’t work with people you know or believe to be unsafe, but I would err on the side of working with others in a crisis. Whoever you think you can count on is your team. And the folks you know who also need you.

Get together on a group chat, in person, or on the phone and make a plan, including everyone’s to do list.

Combine resources — one person to the stores, one to get the medications, another to set up the backup power. Who will ride with who? Whose car can make the trip? Who has a propane tank or a jackery, and indoor trampoline to keep kids busy, a shower with grab bars so grandpa can bathe, or an outdoor oven?

AGAIN SO MUCH EASIER IF YOU HAVE ALREADY COORDINATED WITH THEM.

Now work backwards for how long all the things you need to do to get ready will take.

If you are evacuating to somewhere 3 hours away (in crisis travel times, not normal ones), you have three hours to do things, not six.

If it is going to take two hours to get everyone home from college and work, then you have four hours to get things done.

Be realistic about what you and your team can do — you don’t want anyone to be caught out. Remember, category is not optional, so do that first.

With this much notice, if you can reach your doctor, call and ask them to call in any possible refills, or a 90-day script on anything you can.

If any adaptive technology can make your life easier, and you can afford it, pick it up.

With this much notice you can also spend some time checking on friends and neighbors.

The other important thing to know is that 12 hours is about as long as most people can run on sheer adrenaline without collapsing. After they do that, they will be FRIED.

So your plan CANNOT be “run as hard as you can to get ready and then do another 3–6 hours of driving, fighting, evacuating, repairing, readying, etc…. YOU ARE GOING TO NEED SLEEP AND FOOD AND REST before you can do it again.

So if your team has enough people, it is always good to keep one on light duty, maybe helping with kids or the elderly, but mostly resting to be highly functional when everyone else is crashing, but the crisis is still here.

Otherwise, build down time in — even a half hour nap for the sole functioning adult is going to make your cognitive function and temper a LOT better.

Also, even if you don’t feel hungry or thirsty, someone should be on kitchen duty if possible during that stretch, making sure that everyone working hard has a chance to rest for a few minutes, drink a cuppa and eat some food.

Otherwise, there will be a notable drop in efficiency and an increase in bickering and crankiness when everyone has to keep pushing through on no food.

If someone is on kitchen duty, it is their job to gently cajole folks into eating, and bring food and liquid to tired, overwhelmed stressed out people as they work. Even if they say they don’t want it.

If you don’t have such a person, make several 15 minute mandated breaks and shove a bunch of food out and tell everyone to eat.

The downside of a longer stretch to prepare is that you also have to take care of individual routine needs.

6–12 HOURS — EVACUATION

With this much notice, you may have time to optimize housing or personal arrangements.

For example, instead of just heading to your parents’ place or planning to couch surf, maybe you can find a short term rental or ask among connections for a place to park your RV.

This is especially important for those with pets, health challenges, or young kids. This is also the first time you’ve had a chance to realistically pack AND shop, and to prepare the way you would for a longer trip.

Do that. Wash the laundry in the hamper if you can before you take it.

Again, if the safe zone is far and/or you have a lot of people or creatures to move, you may not have a ton of time, but 6–12 hours gives you breathing room.

If you can arrange to leave at night and you are traveling with kids, you may do best to put them into the car fed, bathed and ready for bed while you drive as far as you can before you get too tired.

Think in terms of entertainment for a few minutes — shelters are dreary and staying in crowded housing with friends or family gets old fast.

How are you going to get through it? Keep the kids busy? Do you want to bring some legos or Cards Against Humanity or Scrabble or your guitar or fidget toys to the apocalypse?

Think small, portable, reusable, or multipurposed.

6–12 HOURS — STAY IN PLACE

Again, the good thing about longer stretches is that they give you more time to get everything done, but the bad thing is that you outwear the time you can run on pure adrenaline. And you have to meet everyone’s daily needs at the same time you are frantically getting ready.

If you can outsource any of these things, you should — picking up a pizza if you can afford it is just sensible to give you more time to insulate or bring in firewood.

Don’t neglect chores that will be hard to do without power or water — if you can do dishes and laundry, bathe yourself, charge up all your devices, etc…you will be glad you did.

If you have money, now is time to stock up on any gaps in your supplies.

Remember personal care items, particularly those that let you feel comfortable in an extended power or hot water outage where you can’t bathe — toothpaste, dry shampoo.

Fill your propane tank. Fill your gas tank. Refill your meds. Pick up any supplements you will need, or any supplies you are going to need to get through.

Meanwhile, get your home ready for the disaster and for an extended period without power or water, even if you aren’t sure if those things will happen.

Think in terms of systems — lights, heating, cooling, cooking, hygiene, toileting, communications, safety, medical needs.

Ideally, you did this already, but if you haven’t, or haven’t recently, now is the time.

• How will you keep the lights on?
• How will everyone move safely in the dark?
• Do you need headlamps? Flashlights?
• How will you keep warm or cool?
• How will you wash hands? Flush?
• How will you help your kid through a tantrum?
• How will you handle Mom’s diabetes or Dad’s kidney infection?

Again, with this much time, you should ABSOLUTELY be collaborating with others as much as possible.

With this much time, you can organize your neighbors, create a public bulletin board in case cell service goes out, help your disabled neighbor get ready, and check in on the single Mom with two little ones up the hill.

You can’t do EVERYTHING, but together, you may be able to do most of it.

Make some longer term plans with your neighbors for the reconstruction or sustained crisis situation. Who will check in on who? Who has the chainsaw? Who has good sterile technique? Who can make 30 quarts of soup? Who can convince the obnoxious dude on the corner not to use his generator to blast AC/DC the whole time you are cleaning up? Or to cheer everyone up with a Metal party? Who will need places for people to stay? Who will need help with daily living because none of their caregivers are showing up? Who is too broke to prepare but willing to trade willing hands for help? Make sure no one gets left behind.

24 HOURS OR MORE

Given that we’re going from increments of five minutes, this seems like a lot of time. It isn’t necessarily.

The longer you have, the more things are “necessary.”

Eric and I began preparing for Covid and having our kids home full-time in late January of 2020. When everything blew up, we still weren’t entirely done with the level 3 stuff.

In retrospect a haircut, a good wifi extender, and a trip to the library would have been higher on the priority list. Moreover, once we exceed one day, you have to do normal life stuff, and prepare around it.

That’s probably the biggest reason some of us are “preppers” — because we know that our daily life won’t allow us to do all this stuff hard and fast and live our lives as well.

With ten kids, our preparations have to be slipped into the edges around school and work. I CANNOT have to buy two weeks worth of food and medicine for my kids, even if I could afford it, all at once. That’s a six-hour project.

Oddly, the longer stretches to prepare can be harder to manage than shorter, more acute situations.

No matter whether you are staying or going, if you have a longer stretch to get ready, take some time to actually plan and make lists. Take some time to reach out to others and collaborate.

American preparedness is all reduced to the individual or small family unit in most cases — it is rarely collective and communal, but honestly, that’s much, much more effective than every person for themselves.

Moreover, most of us can’t afford to meet every need for power, lights, water, food, shelter, medicine, medical care, heat, cooling, etc — on our own.

To do so is prohibitive in both cost and energy. WE NEED EACH OTHER. If you have more time than a day, I’d advise yes, try and get a few more of the 3s on your list done. But more importantly, reach out and figure out how to collaborate and prepare with others.

Now the challenge here is that outside of an absolute, immediate, clear as a bell crisis, many people don’t recognize the need, and won’t put resources into preparation. But, sometimes you can convince people to collaborate with the right framing.

If you can’t, be ready to integrate them into your plans if and when they see the need. Try not to hold it against folks who can’t see what’s coming.

The thing is, the “more than a day” scenario is the one we’re all living.

All of us know that one day, some kind of disaster is coming for us — maybe with no notice. So all of us should look around and say “I probably have more than a day to prepare. I’d best get on it — now.”

Sharon Astyk is a science writer who has written four books about current and coming hard times and how to move through them, both independently and collectively.

She runs an urban farm in Schenectady, NY, and lives with her family of 13, plus a myriad of animals and far too many plants.

You can find more of her essays posted here.