Donald Trump Won’t Make It To The White House Again
His chances are far narrower than folks imagine
Anyone who thinks my story is anywhere near over is sadly mistaken. — Donald Trump
To the children of our country, regardless of your gender, our country has sent you a clear message: Dream with ambition, lead with conviction, and see yourself in a way that others might not see you, simply because they’ve never seen it before. And we will applaud you every step of the way. — Kamala Harris, parents.com
I can die a happy man, never having been President of the United States of America. But it doesn’t mean I won’t run. — Joe Biden, CNN
It is a bit too early to write off Joe Biden for the 2024 presidential race, just as it unnecessary to start worrying about the political career of Kamala Harris.
Those who complain she has not been given a policy role yet are rather too impatient or don’t seem to understand she must have her hands full at this time grappling with settling into the role of VP at a difficult time and actively following the maneuvers at the senate where her votes are required to break those ties that may make or mar the Biden Administration.
What most people miss is that Ms. Harris has an unusual privilege to learn from a man who is vastly experienced in politics and was the VP of the US for those 8 Obama years.
I think so far both Biden and Harris are sounding the right notes and projecting the image of partners whose support teams have blended well and are focused on the urgent job of the moment.
Having got that out of the way, let’s be clear that while this piece concerns Harris indirectly it is not about her. Time is on her side and she has to prepare and strengthen herself further for what will confront her, almost inevitably.
It was the quest for the presidency that got her where she is now and where she is now can take her to wherever she wants to be tomorrow if she bides her time and the right chips fall in place.
What is a more likely scenario is that Biden and Harris need to beat Donald Trump again in 2024 before Harris will become president (in 2028 or before then). For the latter to happen Biden must run in 2024 and help the GOP rue the day they failed to impeach Donald Trump on the floor of the Senate when they got the chance after the Capitol Hill coup d'état.
All those pitching their hope on Trump becoming president in 2024 have missed the train. It won’t happen. Mr. Trump will not live in the White House again. The only chance of that happening is if Biden fails to run in 2024.
In some other piece, I have demonstrated that Biden will run and will beat Trump.
The issue of Biden being too old at 82 does not win the argument which should center on how fit and healthy he will be then. Of course, he has to learn how not to stumble on aircraft staircases. Nobody becomes the president of the United States lacking tall ambitions. There is always the personal desire to make history. I noted too that Anthony Fauci and Nancy Pelosi are 80 and older and look good to function at the highest level of their chosen careers for some years to come. Mitch McConnell is 79 by the way.
Those who got carried away by Trump’s untruths will in the 4 years of Biden’s first term be reminded of the difference when the focus stays on the people rather than personal dramas and the brain waves of one deluded human being. And the thunder of Trump’s shock politics will be silenced by the visible achievements that the Biden administration will garner with the majorities it enjoys in the legislative arms of government.
But why Trump will not live in the White House again will be mostly because
- He cannot unite and control the GOP into winning major elections with his brash and divisive tactics. The level of fear and intimidation he induced as a president is far less than what he can do as an ex-president and potential presidential candidate. In trying to completely take over the controls of the party, he is going to break it and leave it a shadow of itself. That will hurt the party and further hurt his chances.
- He will continue to alienate more members of the party and have at the election time a fractured Republican Party with a large chunk of its members no longer enthusiastically supporting him. There was a grey-hair guy named Mike Pence. Remember him? Trump’s name on the ballot will galvanize the Dems to make him lose hugely.
- His base cannot grow further. It will continue to lose membership in addition to the loss of the independents that hurt him in 2020.
- The evangelicals will not tag to his train the way they did in 2016 and 2020 as they have to repair their image and reputation from those outings.
- Trump will be Trump, will be Trump, and has played all his trump cards. Talk of an old dog not learning new tricks and you can be sure he can’t reinvent himself or restrategize to warm himself into the hearts of new voters. The rhetoric is known and will remain unchanged, moreso because the man is incapable of listening to or taking anybody else’s advice.
- The Dems have developed a template they are unlikely to drop for the future. They may tweak and deploy. They have Georgia on their mind.
- It also looks like Joe Biden took the advice to talk directly to the American people to heart. That’s a sign of a man who knows the campaign is never really over and who seems to be cranking the engine often to stop it from going cold.
What will be more likely is Biden Versus Trump III (yes, you read right and no typo) and there’s no need to hedge the bets now. The difference between the candidates goes beyond the Red and Blue colors of their corners. When the time comes it will be too late then for the Republican Party to replace the candidate as it realizes the errors led to that point. Just too late.
But before then there’s Biden Versus Trump II. Trump has already hunkered down in a bunker, penciling down who among Republicans will qualify to run in 2022 on the basis of perceived personal loyalty to him and his cause.
It is like the party has handed over its administrative and nomination structures to Trump. All putting themselves up for elective positions on the Party’s platform today seem to need his endorsement.
The members of the party are in 3 camps. The ardent and fanatical supporters of Mr. Trump, those vocal about their opposition to what he represents, and those silently watching and wondering how and why the party got to this point. Some folks like Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell and even Mitt Romney have been in each of the camps at different times.
Biden versus Trump II will have the impact of providing ground army and support for Biden versus Trump III.
Both parties appear to well understand that and that partly explains why the Dems did not allow themselves to back down on the $1.9 trillion Relief Package and why Biden found it necessary to do a victory lap to explain it to the American people directly.
The mid-term elections this time will be clearly fought with an eye on the next presidential elections and unless the Dems lose steam it is unlikely to go, as often in the past, the way of the party whose candidate is not the current occupant of the White House. The reason is simple. The GOP has tied its fate to that of a man who lost the last election, claimed it was stolen and convinced them he is better than all of them even when his failures are glaringly obvious.
Interesting times, ahead!
OU032021