Ukraine War

Yes! A Patriot did down a Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile over Kyiv

Recent reports suggest that the debris found in Kyiv was from one of Putin’s superweapons and that has now been confirmed by the US

The report

This seems to have originated at the Ukrainian website Defence Express (Ukrainian version):

The debris

The Kinzhal (‘Dagger’) is thought to be based on the first stage of the Iskander, with the addition of a booster to enable it to achieve hypersonic velocity and provide extra range.

It’s one of Putin’s six ‘new’ strategic weapons — the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (Dagger), NATO reporting name Killjoy — is a Russian nuclear-capable hypersonic aero-ballistic air-to-surface missile with a 2,000 km range at Mach10–12. A huge range at high speed but rocket propelled and aero-ballistic, so they are not technically cruise missiles. They are deployed at air bases near to Ukraine.

Kh-47 hypersonic missiles launched by MiG-31 heavy interceptors were used early in the 2022 attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia to target Ukrainian cities.

The Iskander has a range of 500 km.

The debate

Kinzhal or Iskander? A crucial difference.

The above Twitter thread has a lot of debate about the missile’s identity and whether the picture has been faked by the Ukraine military.

A missile failure has also been suggested, which could be a distinct possibility given recent mishaps admitted by the Kremlin, such as dropping bombs on their own cities.

The Ukraine Armed Forces are not commenting.

Hypersonic Kinzhal missiles possessed by Russian forces can be shot down with Patriot defense systems, Ukrainian officials said in the aftermath of a massive new missile strike on Wednesday. [8 March 2023] https://www.newsweek.com/russia-kinzhal-missiles-shot-down-weapon-ukraine-1786785

Conclusion

Inconclusive. I’m sitting on the fence on this.

One opinion is that a Patriot PAC-3 missile is the only weapon that Ukraine has which is capable of downing the Iskander or Kinzhal. Others suggest that the German Iris-T (=SAMP-T from France/Italy) is capable of the interception.

Certainly we would expect these countries to have systems capable of the interception. But a hypersonic Kinzhal?

Surface launched variants of the IRIS-T, the IRIS-T SLS and IRIS-T SLM, have enhanced capabilities to destroy aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles, air-to-surface missiles, anti-ship missiles, anti-radar rockets and large-calibre rockets. (Wikipedia)

I checked the Defence Express website (English version):

Defense Express is a partner of the Ukrainian Defense Industries (Ukroboronprom) State Corporation.

On their English site I couldn’t find any reference to the source story.

According to aerotime.aero:

So far, no official confirmation of a Kinzhal interception has been issued by Ukraine’s military or authorities. The Ukrainian Air Force said it would not comment on the reports, though it invited interested parties to refer to the original article “for additional up-to-date, operational and reliable information that the enemy will use in the war against Ukraine”.

So, is this part of a disinformation campaign?

Or not?

I couldn’t find any reference to the story on the usual Telegram channels I monitor.

If the report is accurate, then that will surely affect Putin’s blood pressure — if, of course, he gets to hear about it all. Who gives him bad news?

Update, May 7 2023

UAF confirms downing of Kinzhal.

And more (8 May):

The Armed Forces of Ukraine became the first army in the world to shoot down a ballistic missile using the Patriot anti-aircraft missile complex, — the speaker of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Ignat

“The Patriot has never engaged targets like the X-47 Kinzhal,” he said.

We will remind you that earlier the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the downing of the X-47 “Kinzhal” over Kyiv on May 4, 2023. — United24Media

The United States has no doubt about the veracity of the information about the downing of the Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missile by the Patriot system, CNN reports, citing sources.

Although Patriot successfully countered ballistic missiles, the ability of this air defense system to shoot down hypersonic missiles was purely theoretical. The Pentagon considers the May 6 event a landmark. — Live Ukraine

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