Space and Defence

China and US Satellites Play Dangerous ‘Cat and Mouse’

France and Russia too. Tom and Jerry in space is dangerous, so are new rules needed for space encounters of the close kind?

There are concerns in US defence circles that Chinese satellites have apparently shown an ability to avoid surveillance by US satellites. Recently, USA270 went to take a look at two recently-launched geostationary Chinese satellites and they moved away.

It’s getting busy up there. In mid-April 2022, there were 589 operational satellites in geostationary orbit, up from 480 in 2017.

USA270

USA270 is a surveillance satellite launched in 2016 from Air Force Eastern Test Range, Florida. It is in a geostationary orbit. Well, not quite geostationary. It is a capable of doing a walkabout as shown in the tracking data here. And what does it do? It goes and looks at other satellites.

And recently it went on an excursion to take a peek at two Chinese satellites: Shiyan-12–01 and Shiyan-12–02. But they did not want to be peeked at, so they moved away.

Chinese satellites Shiyan-12–01 and Shiyan-12–02

Shiyan-12–01 and Shiyan-12–02 were launched in December 2021 by a new-generation Long March 7A rocket from the Wenchang Satellite Launch Center. The details of the satellites are classified (is there anything in China that isn’t classified?).

A press release stated that the Shiyan-12 satellites are for space environment studies and related technical tests. They were developed by the China Academy of Space Technology (CAST), a subsidiary of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. No further details were provided. Shiyan translates as ‘experiment’ or ‘test’.

At 60.7-meters-long, the Long March 7A for Thursday’s dual satellite launch included an elongated fairing, making it China’s longest rocket to date. The rocket has a diameter of 3.35 meters and has four side boosters. It is capable of delivering up to 7 metric tons of payload to GTO. — Space News

What happened in orbit?

According to a story in Space News, “It’s pretty clear that as USA 270 gets close, these guys are getting out of Dodge,” said Dan Oltrogge, COMSPOC Corp. research director. “It also demonstrates that countries are doing what we call counterspace. They’re taking action to avoid disclosure of their capabilities or their activities.”

If you watched that video then you’re probably wondering what was going on. It seems that the blue lines represent the paths of the two Shiyan satellites and the yellow line the track of USA270.

These satellites have only limited fuel for manoeuvreing and stabilising their orbits. If they get too far ‘off the beaten track’ then the power available will not be sufficient to restore them to a stable orbit (either by adjusting velocity or orbital ‘height’). Of course I have no idea how much fuel/duration they have available, I’m just speculating.

US concern

“The U.S. is very concerned about what other countries might be able to find out about the capabilities of those satellites and about being able to protect them,” said Brian Weeden, Secure World Foundation director of program planning. The Secure World Foundation, for its part, is “concerned that the ambiguity over some of these actions and that heightened tensions could lead to some sort of conflict, to mistakes or misperceptions,” — Space News.

China concern

I guess that the Chinese will have a view about what the US is up to. It’s a two way street. Unfortunately the Chinese President was unavailable for comment when I tried to reach him earlier (just kidding).

Increasing activity

In the past 10 years, China, Russia and the United States have sent satellites “shuffling back and forth in the GEO band, doing various tasks that we didn’t use to see in GEO,” said Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer and spaceflight analyst. “The point of GEO is to be able to stop at one place relative to the Earth.” (Space News)

The Chinese have demonstrated garbage recovery satellites in the GEO (geostationary Earth orbit), with the Shijian-17 and Shijian-21satellites having robotic arms.

“Shijian-17 and Shijian-21, which are satellites with robotic arm technology, could be used in a future system for grappling and disabling other satellites,” U.S. Army Gen. James Dickinson, Commander of the U.S. Space Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in March.

An act of war

This kind of encounter between Tom and Jerry in space is a serious concern. Satellite surveillance technology is the backbone of modern defence. We’ve all seen the power of satellite technology in the Ukraine war. Just this week South Korea announced the launch of its first satellite. India already has satellites in orbit and overflying China with whom they have an ongoing border dispute and an uneasy BRICS relationship.

It’s generally perceived that an attack by one country on another country’s satellite(s) would be perceived as an act of war and the precursor to a terrestrial conflict.

And it would not necessarily have to be a ‘hands-on’ attack. Robotic arms not required.

In a rare public event, the №2 member of the United States House Permanent Select Intelligence Committee (HPSCI), Rep. Adam, said a cyber attack on a US satellite could be considered an act of war. — Breaking Defense

In 2019, France’s Le Point reported that space had become “a field of action.” The French defence minister was forecasting a scenario of cameras, machine guns and lasers on “sensitive satellites,” with sensors to watch for threats and then retaliate. “This can be achieved,” Le Point reported, “by submachine guns capable of destroying the solar panels of an enemy satellite, or by lasers blinding or destroying it entirely.”

Too close for comfort

In a speech on September 7, 2018, French Defence Minister Florence Parly accused the Russian Luch (Olymp) satellite of closely approaching the French-Italian Athena-Fidus satellite in the geostationary belt. The Defence Minister noted that the closeness of the approach could potentially allow Luch to intercept Athena-Fidus’ communications, which she condemned as an “act of espionage.” Earlier in 2018, French Air Force Gen. Jean-Pascal Breton acknowledged that “several” French satellites had been approached on orbit before by inspector satellites from other “sovereign nations,” but did not specifically name the satellites involved. Source: Satellite Dashboard

As Robert Frost wrote, ‘Good fences make good neighbours’. The problem is that in space there are no fences, no boundaries, just a vacuum.

When someone stands too close to you, they are ‘invading your space’.

So when does Jerry think that Tom is getting a bit too close?

It’s a mighty fine line.

Are new rules needed?

Frankly, I can’t see the point.

There might be some value in the actual process of developing an international set of rules, but as Putin has shown in Ukraine, rules are there to be broken.

News just in

A close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that London will be the first city to be bombed in the event of another world war

Deputy of the State Duma of Russia, General Andrey Gurulev, said that if the “blockade of Kaliningrad” leads to war, then the first blow will be delivered to the British capital.

“We will destroy the entire constellation of enemy space satellites during the first air operation. No one will worry whether they are Americans or British, we will consider them all members of NATO,” he said.

Unverified. Source: Ukraine Telegram Channel

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…Tom and Jerry in a vacuum

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