“Cowards die many times before their actual deaths.” Gaius Julius Cesar

Putin stopped holding a monopoly on violence in Russia. No one can feel safe. The diadoch wars to succeed the Tzar have begun

“Putin’s aura of the inevitable ordained leader and his aura of perceived legitimacy have now lapsed into real politics, and we are going to witness how this will be exploited.” Vlad Vexler

The last colonial empire on earth falls apart.

The chaos in Russian politics has increased dramatically, and it won’t stop there.

The anti-Ukrainian Russians are taking Russia from anti-Ukrainian Russians while pro-Ukrainian Russians liberate Russia from anti-Ukrainian Russians, while Ukraine liberates Ukraine from both anti-Ukrainian Russians and supplying pro-Ukrainian Russians.

The Putin regime has taken irreparable damage

The coup attempt has brought the regime one step closer to its disintegration. George Orwell said that the truth is the best lie. Usually, no one believes it.

It is a kind of poetic justice. This ancient colonial behemoth was forgotten by history and ultimately appeased

Russia’s rulers were never held accountable for their atrocious crimes. Russia is now being humiliated completely. The diadochs (successors) have already taken their positions and they circle like vultures over the Kremlin.

The last colonial empire is dying live on air.

For Ukraine, the light at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter. I had promised Russia a shockwave about a month ago that it is coming closer. A nation that needs to buy ammo from North Korea and which can’t stop mercenaries from marching on their capital is a nation that is failing.

“Based on history, that’s how revolutions begin. The only thing we need to understand is the scale. Maybe we will have a revolution like in 1917 or 1991. Over the past 1.5 years, it is difficult to predict anything. I just choose an observation position.” Enrique, 30, 1420 Interview, business manager

Opinion piece

This whole coup was a play to force Putin to make changes in the leadership of the Russia MOD. Prigo made a deal. These changes will allegedly be made. In this sense: Mission complete.

They are Russians. They spin stories in the news. Just look at all the different war aims and the reasons for this war. These pundits change their story all the time. The people go along with it. They either accept the manipulated reality propaganda, or they simply ignore it.

Putin and Prighozin could pull this off. Putin remains president, even if he is just a mere figurehead. Most Russians will be okay with that

There is something in the background. Some deal was made. The deal could either lead to the assassination of Prigo or make him Russia’s most powerful man. One of these two Putin or Prigoshin will be dead soon. Who of the two is hard to tell, but the Dark Lord won’t share his power.

The mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous, and if any one supports his state by the arms of mercenaries, he will never stand firm or sure, as they are disunited, ambitious, without discipline, faithless, bold amongst friends, cowardly amongst enemies, they have no fear of God, and keep no faith with men. Machiavelli, the prince

There’s also a non-zero chance that Lukashenko becomes president of Russia as the outcome

Putin was floundering already due to the failed invasion of Ukraine. The Putin ship has now hit the Prigozhin iceberg. Putin’s ship is going down, and the Russian elite knows it. Lukashenko hasn’t been directly tarnished by the invasion and has just proved himself as a dealmaker. It is unlikely that this would happen, but not impossible.

This circus play is called: ‘The Tsar is good, the boyars are bad’

This move by Wagner might change the boyars, but it won’t change the game. Prigozhin might not have even tried to seize full legal control of Russia just yet. If he had seized control of the state on the 24th of June 2023, then he would face a no-win scenario.

Prigozhin would have to choose

1. To end the war in Ukraine, and taking the propaganda loss as the one who “gave up” or “lost Ukraine.”

2. Keep a futile war going, a war which for Russia is an endless stalemate at best, or a slow inevitable defeat at worst. There is no reasonable scenario where a President Prigozhin gets to hold a parade through the streets of Kyiv celebrating total Russian victory.

As long as Putin is in charge, this is his war, and Vlad P. has to take the fall for it.

Prigozhin can continue to portray himself as the only competent man in the room. YP can say he is the only true Russian patriot who is fighting for the Russian people. Of course, this is all a bunch of hooey and propaganda.

But the Russian population can’t grasp that. However, this infighting makes Russia weaker, and it is very bad for the morale of the Russian soldiers. So, that is a good thing for Ukraine.

Every villain is a hero in his own mind. Tom Hiddleston

For Prigozhin, it’s better to seize a lot of power behind the scenes while letting Putin take all the blame for the quagmire in Ukraine. Eventually, the war will end with Ukraine completely driving Russia out. Or, by Russia, facing such an imminent total defeat that they are forced to sign a humiliating cease fire. Prigozhin may then seize outright formal power. There would be little resistance in this case.

If I had a solidus for every time a mercenary army staged a coup or formed a breakaway kingdom, I could hire an army to march on Rome

The Russian MoD is incompetent. Shoigu and Gerasimov are a big part of why this attempted conquest of Ukraine has been such an abject failure. Prigozhin has increasingly been justifiably enraged by this situation. This was no ruse or some false flag operation

After the disaster in Bakhmut, Prigo was fuming

He was losing his best mercenaries because the Russian MoD made him part of their power games. Shoigu and Gerasimov appear to have a lot of influence and they have somewhat kept Putin in the dark.

Shoigu, Gerasimov, and their friends play a charade with Putin. Prigo wants a much bigger piece of the cake

The latest move of the drunken Samurai Shoigu and his friends appears to have been to essentially destroy Wagner as an independent organization. In a good old Soviet manner. This was the final straw. These two have overplayed their hand.

The old guard of Wagnerites is a hardened veteran bunch. It is a real force with tens of thousands of men. There was nothing but a mess of weekend warriors to stop them. I think that Prigozhin had no interest in replacing Putin. He wanted to come before Putin, swearing his loyalty. He was demanding more power.

YP has a quarrel with the orc deputies, not with Sauron himself. This was about Shoigu and Gerasimov, not about the big guy at the top

This “exile” of Prigozhin is better for him than one might think. He wanted to get off of the “kill now” list and on the “kill later” list. Prigozhin is committed, and it’s typical of Putin’s Russia that the one man who actually could get results is seen as a threat by those in court at Moscow.

Although, none of this changes the big picture.

For example, Russia is astonishingly incompetent. The Russian command should have never allowed something like this to happen. Russia has militarily been a joke largely because of the clowns at its helm. Prigozhin crossed the Rubicon. The MoD was not able to stop Wagner’s advance.

So, did Prigozhin really achieve anything?” Yes, and yes again

The Russian armed forces launched an offensive earlier this year. This offensive has achieved a lot of broken equipment and not much else. The Wagnerites at least had success in Bakhmut.

It was an international story. It was big in Ukraine and big in Russia

Let’s take Vuhledar, for example. There was an elite Russian naval division, well-equipped mechanised infantry, as part of the spring offensive they were reconstituted and re-equipped and sent to attack Vuhledar. This Russian naval infantry division was effectively completely destroyed. Russian tanks were driving up the same roads day after day past the wrecks of previous Russian tanks.

Entire squads of infantry were walking across open ground and then being hit by artillery and machine gun fire

The next day, the exact same thing was happening over and over again. This continued for at least 2 to 3 weeks.

The Chechen general in command at Vuhledar should have been sacked for this utter failure.

Instead, this guy was promoted! He had received a medal by Sergei Shoigu. Because he had followed orders. Success is not important. The Russian commanders simply lie in the reports that get white washed until they reach Putin.

This would be unthinkable in any functional military Western force

However, the Russian Ministry of Defense and Russian military does not operate in the way any Western military would. This apparatus isn’t meant to fight such complex symmetrical wars. The Russian army’s officer corps’ primary purpose is jockeying for positions back in Moscow. This is how Shoigu got into his position. Loyalty is put above competence.

Even a more competent leadership can’t slavage the situation

Firstly, the reshuffling of the military leadership would create more chaos at the frontlines. Then, the new leadership would get a demoralized and confused army without supplies. This deep-seated culture of corruption has had decades, if not centuries, to root itself in this society.

Putin’s image in front of the public took a heavy hit

“I think one of the biggest reasons why we haven’t seen more protests is the lack of collective action. What keeps the regime running is fear and applying force. It can develop into a real revolution in the future.” Puck Nielsen

The world’s best and most selfless generals couldn’t fix this train wreck

The Russian military is a “decade or two to rebuild the whole thing from ground up” level screw up. Shoigu and Gerasimov are political entities in their own right with independent power centers. This could get interesting.

We have to ask ourselves, will they stand down when Putin gives in to Prigozhin’s demands and removes them?

Due to rampant corruption and nepotism, a lot of the officers are dependent on the current top brass for their positions. This is far from over. There is something afoot. We just don’t know yet what it is exactly.

I get it. Some were hoping for something more dramatic. But we aren’t there yet

Politically, this outcome is the most dramatic it could have been. It appears to be a total capitulation by Putin. The key issue here is not whether Wagner would have met strong resistance when marching into Moscow. Should Shoigu and Gerasimov leave, it’s because of their incompetence and corruption.

These two brought the entire power structure so close to the brink of collapse that the national guard was either joining Wagner or they were terrified of thousands of battle-hardened Wagner soldiers. So they let them through

In the eyes of the average Russian grunt, Wagner appears righteous. The Russian army appears dysfunctional and disloyal

The efforts of the Russian army were pitiful. They were trying to block roads with trucks. They were digging up roads while the Wagnerites were cheered on by many people. I saw many soldiers waving them past. This is the real damage to the Russian, and it goes far beyond the helicopters that were shot down.

The Russian MoD is a farce while Wagner is (more) competent at what they do

In the Russian space, they are well regarded. Objectively, of course, Wagner is a terrorist group.

In the national narrative of Russia. Russian officers are nepotistic and corrupt. They don’t inspire loyalty. The Russian military resents its superiors. PMC Boss YP capitalized on this

This was an archetypical version of the shadow puppet play of power. The lie that is holding society together was meeting the cold, hard reality of steel and the visceral nature of things. Wagner found an open road all the way to Moscow, and no one stopped them.

This is Putin’s surrender, not the surrender of Prigozhin. The only way for this to end like this is because Prigo got all of the concessions he wanted

YP is smart enough to know that killing Putin would not help him to consolidate his control over Russia. There was nothing really significant which was preventing Wagner from entering Moscow. We may soon find out that Putin has let the power shift to the head of Wagner or that Prigoshzin had a terrible accident.

Putin preserves his life and his role as a figurehead

YP accepted this because he is now the power figure in Russia without losing any more troops. Putin can ‘gracefully’ retire in the coming months rather than catch a bullet. The Wagner coup is accomplished with less blood and chaos.

Putin wiggled his head out of the sling. By the stroke of a pen, which is mightier than the sword

But only if you know how to use a pen. If you can’t use a pen then you’re actually bringing a pen to a literal sword fight. Which isn’t a good idea. Heads will roll. The question is just whose head will roll?

If Putin wasn’t roped into this whole situation beforehand, it would make him look like an idiot. If he knew about it, then this shows that he is losing his grip on power.

Russia created the idea that Putin is above the law. The laws in Russia are generally very loose

If you have enough money, most laws don’t apply to you. However, the MoD are representatives of Putin. Putin CHOSE these men. He has likely allowed them to disband Wagner and to arrest the angry bald man. Laws in Russia count when Putin makes the decision. That appears to be not true anymore, apparently.

Mr. Prigozhin went completely against the party line

He called Russia the aggressors. He called the war pointless. That is a direct challenge to Putins' authority. This makes Putin look weak. That’s why his messages got blocked by the Kremlin a while back.

Putin has let Mr. YP drive all the way to Moscow

Putin seemed panicked in his address. He was throwing around things like martial law. He mobilized what he could. He started to block off highways. Putin also apparently was prepared to flee.

Summary and Conclusion

This is a circus and a childish soap opera. Sadly, this is the Russian army and its leadership for you. A bunch of bullies and cowards

This was no false flag. This was no brilliant 5d chess move by Putin. This was the opposite of what a man who is all about regime security would want to happen. This made him look like a loser who can’t defend himself and the nation.

If there was a deal and Pirgozhin gets his wishes, then he effectively forced Putins' hand. That’s not a good look for a dictator

If this was just a way to get rid of Shoigu, then why does the big boss need such a show? Then just dismiss Shoigu. So, looking at it, that way makes no sense.

This move by YP undermines Putin’s interest in Ukraine. He wants to conquer new land

This coup attempt makes your soldiers doubt you and the war. Russia could have gone into an all-out civil war. The war in Ukraine wouldn’t be able to continue when the supply lines break down.

Prigozhin said ”F*** IT” and went into Moscow. He slapped Putin across his face. I really don’t see how this could be a genius psy-ops move.

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Sources:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672918703946571776?s=20