COVID 2022: … Which Variant Will Be ‘The Best’? … A Prediction:

Bulletin №8: Which variant will be the best? … A surprising answer:

This is my COVID Bulletin №8. It asks: “Which Variant will be The Best?”

In my previous Bulletin … №7, we asked: ‘Why do viruses keep coming?’ and we came up with a simple explanation: ‘It’s all about the numbers’.

To get to this conclusion, and confirm it, we looked at how quickly and relatively easy it is for a virus to replicate within the cells & nuclei of its host. We also looked at how the chromosomes of the host cell with DNA arranged in a remarkable double-helix structure, and made up of just four code units) were used for virus replication, using the RNA of the virus. If you haven’t yet read that article, here’s a link. You might like to you check it out before continuing with this read. It explains speed of multiplication in viruses. But note: If you just want to continue this read, there’ll be tech info ‘hints’ along the way.

Here we go: Knowing that viruses produce lots and lots of progeny; and many many generations in a short time, we can now tackle our questions for today: Which Variant is The Best?, and Which variant will be ‘The Best’ in 2022?

Note: As before, I write from a science background, and access to updated real COVID information via my membership of The Royal Society of Biology, but the following views and explanations are entirely my own. They are however, firmly based on knowledge, experience, and research.

So … What do you think? … Which Variant is The Best?

Which is The Best Variant? … better than the rest:

You might think that the best variant would be the one that causes the most damage; the most hospitalizations; the most deaths. If we take this idea into the real world of COVID variants at this point in time (Dec. 2021), we would probably say: ‘Omicron is more infectious than Delta and that Delta is more infectious than Alpha’, because the evidence has pointed to this as we have moved through these 3 variants over 2020/21. Omicron is the dominant strain at this moment in time (late Dec 2021)

To take this thinking to its logical conclusion, you may be tempted to think that ultimately, the best variant, will turn out to be the most aggressive one of all, that is, the one that manages to infect everyone … and everyone dies!

* * * * Full time … blow the whistle … the end! * * * *

You would be wrong to come to that conclusion. Why? Because, if a virus kills off all its hosts there would be no more hosts to infect; no more hosts to support its own life and ‘living’.

A better answer to the question: ‘Which Variant is The Best?’ :

A better answer to the question would be: ‘The variant that has the most efficient rate of infection WITHOUT killing off its hosts en masse’. Think about it … It makes sense.

If you are thinking about it, you might also see that we are slowly refining our answer to that key question: ‘Which variant is ‘The Best’?’.

Further refinement: If you’re smart, you may have already worked out that a simple description of viral replication (like that in Bulletin №7… showing rapid replication with many generations in a short time), though correct-in-principle, does not in fact explain how variations occur. It just explains how progeny are produced faster-than-fast. Start with one … end up with millions.

Multiple progeny production (by itself) doesn’t produce variations!

If all the ‘offspring’ are exactly like the parent virus then there will be no variations … none at all … they will all exhibit the exact same characteristics as the parent virus. They will all be just as effective (or ineffective) as each other. Numbers in themselves don’t produce variations. If a virus is to be ‘better than the rest’ it must surely be ‘different to the rest’. It must be a genuine variation.

So, this is the refinement we need: Interestingly, the truth is that any ‘normal’ reproductive process, be it by a virus or a human being, does not produce identical copies. Think about it: Think just for a moment about our own human progeny experiences. Almost without exception, generational progeny production result in variations:

If you have siblings, are they exactly like you? How many of your relatives (uncles, aunts; their children; your ancestors) are identical? For most people the answer is … none! with the possible exception of identical twins, who are derived from the same chromosome and gene ‘mix’ … with the same, almost-exact combination of coding units A,T,G, and C.

Don’t worry if A,T G and C are ‘new to you’ (This info was given in my COVID Bulletin №7) … but here are a few technical notes to help you right now:

Technical notes: 1. Chromosomes are made up of strings of coding units (and there are only four). In animals and plants, the four code units are: A (Adenine); T (Thymine); C (Cytosine), and G (Guanine), held in long strands called DNA.

Viruses have much shorter coding strands called RNA, and the four codes units of RNA are similar, but a little different: A; U; C, and G. But still only four code units

When new cells are produced for animals & plants, each A code pairs with a T, and each C pairs with a G. In viral replication it’s similar, but A pairs with U (chemically similar to T).

2. Chromosomes in a DNA strand consist of thousands of coding units in mixed sequences e.g. AGGTACTCCGATATGGTT … and so on, contained within the nucleus of each cell. Genes are short stretches of the chromosome, with coding that ‘instructs’ the cell to ‘make’ its component parts, particularly peptides and proteins. You may have heard about ‘protein spikes’ in a COVID virus (shown in the simplified diagram below). That material is coded-for in the virus RNA genes in sequences like AGGUACUCCGAUAUGGUU etc. Slight differences in code sequence may produces different protein spike, and thus, a different COVID variant.

3. The total coding-lineage of a chromosome is what we call the genome of that individual, be it a mouse, a human, a plant or a virus. Each organism has its own individual genome.

4. You’ve probably heard the term ‘genomic sequencing’. Well, that simply means working out the exact sequence of gene code units in an organism’s chromosome material … gene by gene.

They are unique to that organism.

In normal reproduction, generation after generation, the progeny are all different; all have their own individual genomic sequencing; their own unique genome. The reproductive process always mixes the gene coding a little, so that none of the resultant progeny are identical.

All are variants, but they are still the same species. In the case of humans, they are all Homo sapiens, and for the COVID-19 virus, they too are all the same species of virus, but different variations.

Which COVID-19 variant is best … Better than The Best of the Rest?

You can now see that it’s not the numbers that will win out … it’s the variant that is ‘better than the best of the rest’ that will ‘win’! , and don’t forget: that doesn’t mean it’ll be the best ‘killer’. It’ll be ‘the one that has the most efficient rate of infection WITHOUT killing off its hosts en masse’.

The fundamental requirement for achieving a ‘best’ outcome is not numbers; it’s the ability of the virus to produce progeny that are ‘different’ so that there’ll be competition for ‘best-ness’. Thus, progeny must be variants.

In humans we call variants ‘Uncle Harry’, or ‘Jim’ or ‘Sara’ etc … and for the COVID viruses, we call them Alpha, Beta, Delta, Omicron etc. All are variants of the basic organism … be they human or COVID-19 variations.

The COVID-19 virus demonstrates this essential variation-production in no uncertain terms. We know that to-date there have been many versions of the virus (Alpha, Delta and Omicron being only the ‘feature’ ones), but did you know that the Omicron variant alone has had (at late December 2021) at least 50 sub-variants of its own basic conformation …each with a slightly-different genome; a slightly different mix of genes, and thus different protein structures for the viral spikes of the COVID virus. (because peptides & proteins are ‘made’ under coded instruction). There’s a bit more technical info for you!. OK?

My predictions for 2022 … the final outcome:

If “better than the best” means being “best for all”, (for the virus and host) then this is my prediction: Eventually (via a few more virus generations & variations), we will see a balancing out of serious viral infection and human reaction to it. The ‘winner’ virus will become a global endemic … contained, but not eradicated … permanently ‘there’ … and ‘accepted’ everywhere. The ‘winner’ variant will be less severe, having achieved ‘balance-for survival’, managing to spread & infect, but without killing off all its host. We will have learned to ‘cope’ with it; to live with it, in much the same way as we have come to live with the Flu virus.

Finally, think about this: When this ‘covid-is-everywhere’ situation is reached (and it will be!), then: 1. We will have learned to live with it. 2. It will no longer be a feared pandemic … It will be everywhere (endemic) 3. We will no-longer be constantly worrying about it. + consider this: 4. We take our annual ‘Flu-shot’ without much thought or fear. 5. Every year, the Flu vaccine is a different version … do you ever think ‘why?’

Why is that? You should now be able to work it out … You do know the answer:

It’s so simple … The flu virus (like the COVID-19 virus) produces variations constantly … This year’s flu virus is a different variation to that of last year’s and needs a new (variational) vaccine to deal with it.

And because it’s exactly the same with the COVID-19 virus, I am confident in my prediction that eventually (via a few more generational variations) we will see a balancing out of serious viral infection and human reaction to it in much the same way as we’ve come-to-terms with the Flu virus.

COVID-19 will become endemic, and we will no-longer fear it.

COVID-19 will become endemic … no-longer feared

Now you know!

You don’t get a degree, but if you’ve ‘followed’ the above explanations and it has helped you gain a bit more knowledge then I’m happy to tell you that … **** ‘You have passed’ **** and **** ‘Your certificate is in the post!’ ****

This article is one of my series of COVID Bulletins. To read the whole series, just click on this link

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COVID 2022: Which Variant will be The Best … The Answer? written by Fred: writer on Medium * * * * * © Fred Ogden 2021 * * * * *

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