Coronavirus: Will U.S. go the Way of Italy or South Korea?
Officials: U.S. has “every hope” of repeating South Korea’s success
The United States has “every hope” of being able to follow the lead of South Korea — or we could risk going the way of Italy, U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams warns.
“As of now,” the United States has enough ventilators and needed medical equipment to handle the crisis but aggressive measures are needed. The White House announced new measures Monday including attempting to limit meetings to no more than 10 people.
“We have the same number of cases that Italy had two weeks ago,” Adams told CBS. “So we’ve got a choice to make. Do we want to follow the trajectory of a South Korea, where they had aggressive mitigation measures and everyone really leaned into this issue, or do we want to follow the trajectory of Italy where we’re seeing a rapid increase in cases and more deaths?”
Italy escalated rapidly
In just three weeks, Italy has seen Coronavirus cases explode from 223 to more than 27,000, overwhelming Italy’s healthcare system. At least 2,158 people have died of the virus in Italy so far, prompting the new shut down of travel between the United States and Europe.
Comparing cases per million people in U.S. to Italy, South Korea and China
U.S.: 14.1 cases per 1 million. Deaths: 87.
Italy: 462.8 cases per 1 million. Deaths: 2,158.
South Korea: 162.3 cases per 1 million. Deaths: 81.
China: 56.2 cases per 1 million. Deaths: 3,226.
While Korea was aggressive about quarantine measures, the European Union only today announced plans to ban the entry of “non-essential” foreign nationals to the EU.
Testing has also been higher in South Korea: CNN reports there have been 3,692 tests per million people as of March 8 and just 826 tests per million people in Italy.
Dr. Mehmet Oz notes South Korea also aggressively tested and tracked as many people as possible.
CNN also argues South Korea has benefited from having 62 percent of the cases occur with women, who appear to have a higher survival rate than men. Based on data from China, where the outbreak began, it has been estimated women appear to be nearly twice as likely to resist the virus as men: 2.8 percent of women patients in China died versus 4.7 percent of men.
“According to a UN report in 2015, 28.6 percent of the Italian population was 60 years old or older (second in the world after Japan at 33 percent),” CNN reported. “This compares to South Korea, where 18.5 percent of the population is at least 60 years of age, ranking 53rd globally. The impact of this disparity is quickly shown in the analysis of coronavirus deaths in each county. In Italy, 90 percent of the more than 1,000 deaths occur in those 70 or older.”
How smoking — and sex — impacted the disparity in Coronavirus cases
Both Italy and South Korea have comparable numbers of smokers (27 percent of South Koreans and 24 percent of South Koreans). But there is a sexual divide in South Korea that is far less drastic Europe: In Italy, 28 percent of men and 20 percent of women smoke.
Gender divide of smokers is massive in South Korea
In South Korea, however, half of men and a mere 5 percent of women smoke, meaning the younger female non-smokers contracting the disease in Korea were far healthier than the older smokers in Italy.
In Italy, where fewer people self-quarantined, death rates were even higher, 8 percent. Why the disparity? U.S. healthcare experts note Italians are older and their healthcare system doesn’t follow the same “first come, first served” U.S. model but rather, prioritizes younger patients over the elderly.
The Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care (SIAARTI), has written guidelines advising on “the most widely shared criteria regarding distributive justice and the appropriate allocation of limited health resources…It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care.” The virus disproportionately threatens elderly patients.
Could Italy’s higher numbers also be related to younger Italians feeling fine but visiting and unknowingly infecting their elders? Andreas Backhaus, of the German Federal Institute for Population Research suggests that young people are being infected and carrying the virus,which disproportionately impacts older people.
The Millennials are the key,” argues Deborah L. Birx, M.D., the White House coronavirus coordinator. “I want to speak particularly to our largest generations now, our millennials. I am the mom of two wonderful millennial young women who are bright and hard working, and I will tell you what I told to them: they are the core group that will stop this virus.”
Noting that AIDS was similarly stopped by community behavior changes, she said of young people: “They’re the ones who are out and about” and can set up FaceTime and other ways for older people to feel less isolated.
She said Americans should take the new White House guidelines as “rules,” saying if we can keep older people healthier and out of hospitals we can prevent an overtaxing of the U.S. healthcare system.