Coronavirus Is Not the Real Danger

There’s something else that will ultimately do more damage

As at 11am this morning on 28th February 2020, the UK has just announced it’s 19th confirmed case of COVID-19. COVID-19 is, of course, more commonly known as the ‘Coronavirus’, a strangely nonthreatening name that nevertheless instills immediate fear into the hearts and minds of average people when they read it.

This time the case was reported in Wales, which, although technically a different country, will be added to the statistics under the ‘UK’ column. Apparently the unfortunate infected had recently returned from Italy, Europe’s biggest ‘cluster’ (the official name for a localized contagion) and is currently being treated.

For many of us, especially those of us who live in Europe and the USA, the virus started off a fascinating news story of somewhere far away. We were each probably thankful that the Chinese authorities acted so swiftly and aggressively, although at the same time we’d probably secretly admit to being glad we don’t live under such a regime.

Then it got a bit closer. News came of infections in Hong Kong, Thailand, Kuwait — all places that still seemed so far away. Then Italy, Belgium, and, of course, the UK. Then it became about which towns it was in, with all of us thinking ‘is it near me?’ and ‘how many miles away is that?’

I’m sure the same process was repeated mentally by everyone to some degree wherever they were in the world. As it crept nearer to our own — familiar — territory, our concern grew higher. It started to become more ‘real.’

Perhaps you started trawling the net looking for answers and, for many of us, this was a dangerous move.

Coronavirus is not the only virus

The truth is we humans are a bit of disaster in when acting in herds. There’s all sorts of psychology here that we understand and probably much that we don’t, but it’s summed up beautifully in these lines from the 1997 film ‘Men in Black’:

Will Smith’s character is asking Tommy Lee Jones’ character why people can’t be told about the aliens living on Earth.

“Why the big secret?” he says “People are smart, they can handle it.”

Tommy Lee Jones’ character responds:

A PERSON is smart. PEOPLE are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it.

Of course, if you haven’t seen this film not much of the context and the bit about aliens will make sense, but he IS right in his statement generally. On our own we’re usually capable of working things out, thinking rationally and making sensible decisions, but when we’re part of a herd … not so much.

But that’s only part of the problem.

There is a second virus that is spreading in the same way as the first. If you had one of those interactive maps of the world where you can see infections visually (normally in the classic ‘red dot’ format we’re all associate with that sort of thing), you’d see infections everywhere, most of it linked to the physical geographical areas where the outbreaks are the strongest, but not always.

It’s well known, has claimed far more lives than Coronavirus ever will and there is no known cure in serious cases.

We call it ‘Panic.’

Carriers of the Panic Virus

Many of us can be guilty of being highly infectious when it comes to the Panic Virus, but a lot of the time our impact is quite small, localized and can even be treated, if not actually cured, by logic, reason or someone who has already developed an immunity through previous experience.

But there are other groups who are more dangerous.

Conspiracy theorists have not so much crawled out of the woodwork, but poured out, leaving me, as always, wondering what they were doing before any of this happened.

Any search for real, useful information about COVID-19 is now interspersed with theories about global population culling by governments, economic destruction theories, wiping out of enemies, aliens on earth, deliberate release by drug companies to sell vaccines and thousands more ideas ranging in levels of craziness to from mildly absurd to ‘what is this person on?’

These are far more damaging than any virus since they almost always point to an unavoidable Domesday scenario whilst simultaneously creating distrust and doubt in the organisations that are trying to prevent the spread of it in the first place.

The result? Those most seriously infected in this way will panic buy food, drink, ammunition (if you’re in the US) and lots of other ‘survival’ related goodies, leaving empty shelves. Those same empty shelves further fuel the panic among the uninfected who know nothing of the latest conspiracy theory, but DO know that shelves are empty and therefore need to stock up immediately.

Of course, this comes at a time when there are, genuinely, some supply problems, as you would expect when one of the world’s biggest manufacturers and exporters, in this case China, shuts down for a while. Among the items on the danger list are Diet Coke and electronics, so if your favorite pastime is scrolling social media on the very latest gadget while supping on some fizzy brown sugar water, you could be in trouble.

But, in real terms, not that much trouble.

But of course, the biggest and most dangerous of all the carriers are the mainstream media. Whilst the reputable outlets maintain a solemn and factual approach, the fact is that most of us get our ‘information’ from tabloids, click bait headlines on social media and hours and hours and HOURS of speculation by ill informed ‘news’ pundits on day time TV, especially in America.

News outlets LOVE this sort of thing. They know they've got our attention for a while, and they know we love to hear bad stuff, so they have it ready for us, played out in funky graphics with solemn faced news anchors relishing the auto-cue. And, like the conspiracy theorists, the possible outcomes always emphasize the worst case scenarios.

Effect of the Panic Virus

We’re familiar with the outcome. Even if we’re infected and a part of our brain is still working rationally, we can’t stop ourselves.

The shelves continue to empty. The media interviews people outside supermarkets wearing masks lamenting the lack of food or medical supplies thereby driving the virus further. Travel stops. Economic activity slows down. Markets over react and indexes pile into the red. Billions and then trillions are wiped out of financial markets. Local small businesses, such as cafes or other social venues, run into severe cashflow problems because of lack of customers.

People become afraid of not only the virus, but each other, because we’ve seen how it goes in The Walking Dead, Planet of the Apes, The Stand, Outbreak and countless other shows. The world appears doomed.

But it’s likely that it’s not the Coronavirus itself that will do it.

Coronavirus by the numbers

So, let’s take stock for a moment and see if we can’t at least slow down ONE of these viruses, if not the other.

Let’s assume, just for the sake of argument, that the conspiracy theorists are wrong. We already know that at least all but one must be wrong anyway since they are mutually exclusive points of view, so it’s not that far of a stretch to assume they ALL are.

Let’s also ignore the sensationalist media outlets as well, and focus only on the agencies reporting data rather than opinion.

Finally, let’s also give some credit to the agencies who are working on the problem and trust them just enough to assume they are telling us at least mostly the truth.

Removing all the background noise enables us to look at the numbers and make assessments. Even though every number is a life, a long, unique human story, they can still tell us what’s happening and what we should be doing.

There is great, real time data at worldmeters.info, a site that is fed updates constantly by all the key organisations on the globe who are involved in the problem. It makes interesting reading if you know how to look beneath the top line headline figures that the media like to throw about without qualification.

I’m an analyst, numbers are my ‘thing.’

For example, in the last 48 hours:

2,617 new cases of infection have been reported worldwide, bringing the total to 83,896

97 people have died, either directly from the infection or complications arising from infection, giving a total of 2,867 deaths worldwide.

6,480 people have recovered and been discharged, now a total of 36,837.

There are now more people recovering than there are being infected.

There are no longer any infected people in Sri Lanka, Nepal, Vietnam, The Philippines, India, Russia, Belgium, Cambodia or Egypt. The total number of infections here were low, only 39, but of those 38 recovered and one poor soul in The Philippines succumbed. This proves containment remains possible at the moment.

Your percentage chance of survival remain in the high nineties, unless you have are elderly or have a pre-existing condition in which case the survival rates drop noticeably. The current numbers from the Chinese outbreak show the following death rates by age:

10–39, death rate of 0.2% (no one under 9 has died from the virus so far)

40–49, death rate of 0.4%

50–59, death rate of 1.30%

60–69, death rate of 3.60%

70–79, death rate of 8.00%

80 and older, death rate increases dramatically to 14.8%.

What this shows is a similar pattern to pretty much every other infection you can get — the older you are, the more chance you have of not surviving it. It’s harsh, but it’s fair, as it applies to all of us all of the time.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) is currently suggesting an overall 2% fatality rate, although it is stressed this remain an early estimate and it also varies by region.

For most people, symptoms remain mild and not dissimilar to a minor dose of the everyday strain of flu we know well, and full recovery is the most likely outcome. In fact, the ‘everyday flu’ kills approximately 56,000 every single year according to the CDC, which is currently almost 20 times COVID-19’s total.

The Takeway

This IS a serious matter. That even one person has died gives anyone pause for thought. As tongue-in-cheek and even slightly light-hearted as I have been in places in this article, I don’t for a second think this is something that we should laugh off and brush under the carpet.

However, I do think it is something we should put in perspective and, above all, remain calm about.

So, listen to the advice we’ve been given, wash your hands regularly, wear a mask, keep direct contact to a minimum, stay away from public events if you want to, but stay (properly) informed, rational and safe.

At the end of the day, panic is far more deadly than any virus and if we can contain that one we have a great shot of containing the other without any more loss of life.

And that’s something we CAN control.

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