Copa America Centenario: 12 Minute Preview

The U.S. is hosting South America’s biggest tournament ft. Messi, Suarez, Mexico, and the USMNT. So… what is it?

So the USMNT is in some new tournament and it’s happening all around the country and across Fox Sports. What is it? Should you care? Is it worth watching? Who else is in the tournament, and are their guys better than ours?

You should watch. And care. Here’s why…

Copa History

Copa America is a tournament to determine the South American champion. It is contested by 10 CONMEBOL (the South American soccer confederation) teams and a couple CONCACAF (the North American equivalent) guests.

There have been 44 previous Copas, with three nations dominating the trophies: Uruguay (15), Argentina (14), and Brazil (8). Brazil has won four of the last seven. Peru and Paraguay each won twice, while Colombia, Chile, and Bolivia won once. The defending 2015 champs are Chile, who hosted the tournament. In fact, the host nation has won over half (51%) of the Copas!

No country outside CONMEBOL has won the tourney, though Mexico was runner-up twice. It’s Mexico’s 10th straight Copa; other guests are more sporadic. This is only the second time in twenty years USA has played in a Copa — we’re always invited but have usually turned down the invite because of summer MLS conflicts. Our best finish ever was 4th place in 1995.

This is the 100th anniversary of the first Copa (hence Centenario) so the field was expanded to 16 teams and is being hosted outside of South America for the first time ever. Why, you ask? Because: ‘Merica.

USA Preview

Arguably only 3 starters and positions are totally set. One is goalkeeper Brad Guzan, who gets the controversial nod over Tim Howard even after struggling all year for league-worst Aston Villa. The good news is that the U.S. finally seems to have settled on fullbacks Fabian Johnson and DeAndre Yedlin, the guys it should have been all along. The two are a speedy, dynamic pair that give the U.S. a genuine advantage over many top teams attacking up the flanks. Now if only we could settle on a pair of center backs.

Michael Bradley and Clint Dempsey will start. Bradley will be somewhere in the midfield. Klinsmann often starts him in an attacking role while he seems to thrive dropped further back. Dempsey plays forward but sometimes alone, sometimes with another forward. These are USA’s best and most important players, but their versatility also means that the team never has a set lineup.

Beyond that it’s a battle of veteran stalwarts like Jeremaine Jones and Kyle Beckerman versus exciting youngsters like Bobby Wood, Darlington Nagbe, and 17-year-old Christian Pulisic. Klinsmann often starts with the veterans, then makes the youth movement too late. With the first match against Colombia vital in setting the tone, some of the kids need to be out there.

USA is not the best team, but we’re the home team and the margins are razor-thin in soccer. Home field matters more in soccer than any other sport, worth almost half a goal to the home team — huge when matches average 2–3 goals total. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the U.S. only score a couple goals the entire tourney, but we could also make a run to the semis or even win the whole thing. U.S. fans should get excited and expect nothing less than a spirited quarterfinal exit — and hopefully more.

Group A Preview

United States

USA is in a tough group, like usual. Still we’re favored in all three matches and are co-favorites to win the group. We are expected to advance to knockout play. On home turf, nothing less is acceptable.

Colombia

You remember Colombia from the ‘14 World Cup where they dominated group play with breakout star James Rodriguez before a quarterfinal exit to Brazil. Colombia is the #4 team in the world (FIFA rankings). They come with a dominant defense and an exciting attack. James is spectacular in his role for the national team, and he is joined in attack by Juan Cuadrado and Carlos Bacca. Colombia is balanced and plays a careful game, happy to defend for great periods only to turn a quick counter-attack into a goal and break your heart. They’re deadly and can absolutely win this tournament. Whether the bookies will admit it or not, they are clear Group A favorites.

Costa Rica

Costa Rica had an incredible ‘14 World Cup, notching wins over Italy and Uruguay before a heartbreaking loss in penalties to the Dutch. Like Colombia, it was the Ticos’ best World Cup finish ever. Things got ugly shortly thereafter, winless over a 10-match period before righting the ship with some wins against familiar CONCACAF opponents. Costa Rica plays tough defense and then plays defense some more. Speedy Joel Campbell can be a one-man fast break, but expect the Ticos to park the proverbial bus and hope to find just enough offense to win. Costa Rica is every bit as good as the U.S. and a real threat to go through.

Paraguay

Paraguay made four consecutive World Cups, advancing past group stage in three of them, before flaming out badly in ’14 qualification and finishing dead last among CONMEBOL teams with just 3 wins in 16 matches. Paraguay has just eight total wins in the last four calendar years, and other than a penalty win against Brazil, the next best win is probably Cameroon or Jamaica. Like Costa Rica, their defense is good enough, but they may not have the goals.

Key Group Match

USA vs Colombia, Friday June 3

This first match of the tournament sets the tone for the group. A win vaults one team to clear group favorite while the loser is in a real fight for second — likely a fight to face Brazil in the quarterfinals. A winner here is the favorite in the quarters instead. This match is huge.

Group A Prediction

Colombia wins it. And USA advances by the skin of their teeth

Group B Preview

Brazil

You probably know that Brazil is good at soccer. You know the iconic yellow uniforms and the usual flair with which they play the game. You also remember they lost 7–1 to Germany in that World Cup shocker, so you’re forgiven for having some doubts.

This is the Brazil B team, with usual stars like Neymar, Oscar, and David Luiz (above) missing out. But for a loaded country like Brazil, that just means it’s time to get to know the next stars. The defense will be fantastic with Filipe Luis, Miranda, Marquinhos, and Dani Alves the best back line in the competition by far. Casemiro should take up a defensive midfield spot as well. This Brazil will not be giving up 7 goals — maybe the entire tournament.

They’ll score some goals too. Willian and Philippe Coutinho bring zest and creativity all over the field, and Hulk and Jonas can put the ball in the back of the net. And keep an eye on youngster Rafinha from Barcelona who could break out. This is not the Brazil you know. It’s a team that will need to rely on strong defense plus moments of magic to create goals. It may not be jogo bonito, but it might be more of a winning game.

Ecuador

You probably just saw Ecuador, a team the U.S. beat in a friendly last week. They’re not a contender for the crown but they’re a clear favorite to advance here behind Brazil. Ecuador features devastating attack down the flanks with wings Jefferson Montero and Antonio Valencia, whose speed and creativity are sure to haunt teams’ nightmares. West Ham’s Enner Valencia seems to be at his best for the national team up front as well. Ecuador plays staunch defense and can flip the field in a hurry with its speed. They’re ranked 12th in the world, and they’ll be a difficult out as always.

Peru

Peru is stuck. They’re not bad, but they’re not particularly good either, and that’s not enough in CONMEBOL. Only six players on the roster play club ball outside of Peru, and none of them for any of the teams you watched play this year. Peru won just 10 of its last 32 matches, not a single of those over anyone impressive. Expect a lot of defense, with opponents usually able to get past the parked bus and break through.

Haiti

If you’re looking for Cinderella, you found her. Haiti isn’t even supposed to be here but knocked out Trinidad & Tobago to make it — a shame really, because T&T would’ve been an excellent sleeper with a real chance to advance. Haiti’s chances are not so good because, well, they are terrible. Haiti belongs in competitions like the Caribbean Cup. They should be proud to be here but might be lucky to score a single goal.

Key Group Match

Ecuador vs Peru, Wednesday June 8

Let’s just get a couple things straight. Brazil is winning this group, and Haiti is not advancing. That leaves these two teams fighting for runner-up, so this match is the key. For U.S. fans, the winner here is our first knockout opponent if we can manage to win Group A somehow.

Group B Prediction

Brazil coast. Ecuador get runner-up with ease

Group C Preview

Uruguay

Let’s hope Luis Suarez’s hamstring is ready, because love him or hate him, he is can’t miss soccer for all the right and wrong reasons. The man brings biting entertainment. If Suarez misses, perhaps it is Edinson Cavani’s time to shine at last. Poor guy is a top 10 goal scorer in the world but always plays second fiddle, behind Suarez here and Ibrahimovic for Paris Saint-Germain.

The dirty little secret is that the rest of Uruguay’s core is on the last legs of its prime, and this could be their final chance to win a big tournament. Hopefully Diego Godin and Maxi Pereira are up to the challenge. Uruguay is very talented but a bit imbalanced, and their midfield can be beaten. They’re the group favorites, but they’re also a team that could fall hard and fast if things break the wrong way.

Mexico

Only a couple years ago the sky was falling on the Mexican national team, when they needed a qualifying match just to make the World Cup. They impressed there… and then by the next year the sky was falling again with just 1 win in 10 matches. Since then? All is right again. Mexico is on fire, unbeaten in their last 17 matches. New coach Juan Carlos Osorio has been pushing all the right buttons, and Mexico looks fantastic.

Chicharito is ready to lead the attack up front like usual, but he lacks two of his usual mates. Carlos Vela was left off the roster amidst controversy, and Gio dos Santos made his own headlines by turning down an invitation. Hector Herrera is there though, and he’ll be the usual metronome that keeps the midfield ticking, and there are plenty of other attackers.

Mexico has been on fire, and they will get a healthy home advantage too with group matches in Phoenix, Pasadena, and Houston. If they win their group, their 6 games (including the final) would be played among the 9 largest Hispanic metropolitan populations in the country. Watch out for Mexico. They might be the “home” team to win the whole darn thing.

Venezuela

Venezuela is one of the worst South American teams, the only CONMEBOL team yet to qualify for a World Cup. Doesn’t look like that will change anytime soon either, with Venezuela taking just 1 win in 6 World Cup qualifying matches so far. They’ve won just 1 of their 13 most recent matches, tallying a meager 11 goals against very average competition during that span. In a difficult group, it’s hard to imagine them making much noise.

Jamaica

Here’s your real sleeper if you’re looking for one that can actually make some noise. There aren’t a ton of big stars but Jamaica always seem to punch above their weight — of course that’s in the CONCACAF where the opponents are a bit more punchable. The competition here is much stronger, but don’t expect the Reggae Boyz to back down. Jamaica is led by Wes Morgan, the man who just captained the incredible 5000-to-1 Leicester City Premier League title run that may have been the single greatest Cinderella story the sporting world has ever told. Does he have one more Cinderella run in him?

Key Group Match

Uruguay vs Jamaica, Monday June 13

Jamaica rarely gets a shot at the big guys, other than nearby USA and Mexico. If they beat Venezuela as expected, they enter this final group match with a chance to knock off Uruguay and go through. Can they do it?

Group C Prediction

Mexico get the win, and Jamaica shocks everyone by knocking out Uruguay

Group D Preview

Argentina

Argentina are tournament favorites, and it’s easy to see why. If Brazil is bringing their B team, consider this Argentina’s A+ team. Argentina is outrageously loaded, so much so that you might even be able to build a team from their bench any given match and it might still be better than any other team in the field. They’re #1 in the world for a reason.

It all starts with Lionel Messi, of course. He’s the best player in the world and no words do him justice. Watch every Argentina match. Go see them play if they’re anywhere near you. You don’t want to miss Messi.

Of course if opponents pay too much attention, then they might forget about Sergio Aguero or Angel di Maria or Gonzalo Higuain — each of whom might be as good as than any other attacker in the tournament. And there’s stud midfielder Javier Mascherano plus newer national additions like Erik Lamela.

The problem: not much defense mentioned yet. And that’s always been the Achilles heel for this team. Even more recognized defenders like Nicolas Otamendi and Marcos Rojo had very rough years in the Premier League. Mascherano can cover a lot defensively, but can the rest of the group patch itself together enough to let the attack outscore the opponent every match?

Chile

Chile is always amazing to watch. La Roja play a fast-paced attacking game that takes your breath away when everything is clicking. Alexis Sanchez is incredible with the ball at his feet and can open up the field like almost no one else in the world. And Arturo Vidal is a machine in midfield, the very definition of a box-to-box midfielder. His pace and play set the tone for the team on either or both ends of the field.

Chile is actually ranked #3 in the world, but that seems like a symptom of a strange ranking system and a lot of matches played more than it is their real ceiling. This is always a really, really good team, but almost never a great one. They often struggle to put together a full 90 minutes, and all the pressing and attacking is entertaining but tends to leave the defense open for business. 5'7 pitbull defender Gary Medel was everywhere at the World Cup and he can clean up a lot of mess, but the defense still leaves you wanting.

At the end of the day, Chile feels like a worse version of Argentina — a different style sure, but a lot of attacking, super fun to watch, and maybe not enough defense to finish the job. It’s tough to see them stringing together enough big wins to take the trophy.

Bolivia

Bolivia is the lowest-ranked CONMEBOL team. They’ve made just one World Cup since ‘50 and they have scored only onegoal there ever. They won Copa America in ‘63 but have made it out of group stage just 3 of 16 Copas since. They enter the tournament having lost 9 of their last 10 matches, including the 4–0 USA loss over the weekend. Bolivia can hemorrhage goals at times, and in a group with Argentina and Chile, they just don’t stand a chance.

Panama

Panama has yet to make it to a World Cup, but they’ve made the semifinals in three straight Gold Cups now. That’s not much compared to some of the other giants, but this is a team on the rise nonetheless. Jaime Penedo is a real spark plug in goal, but he’s also 34, one of eleven players on this team now in their 30s. Can Panama’s golden generation make one more splash? In a difficult group, it’s more likely a changing of the guard.

Key Group Match

Argentina vs Chile, Monday June 6

This is the best match of the group stage by far, with both teams currently ranked among the top 3 in the world. Hopefully the teams open up, though that could be tough since it’s their opening match. Both should advance easily, so the winner here wins the group and likely avoids Brazil til the final.

Group D Prediction

Argentina and Chile are sure to advance. Argentina wins it.

The top two teams from each group advance to knockout play, an 8-team single-elimination tournament. Knockout begins June 16th, and a champion will be crowned in New Jersey on June 26th.

You best be watching!

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