Complex & Complicated Problems — How to Diagnose and Manage them

There are many words in the English language that are used interchangeably within everyday dialogue. Terms that the English dictionary give distinguishable meanings to but during colloquial conversation, we find ourselves muddling our words without realising it. Fortunately, most of the time, it doesn’t matter. People accept that mistakes are made and we aren’t forced to constantly question ourselves.

“Is it much further…sorry, farther to the beach?”

“When we get to the beach, shall we lay on the sand or lie on the sand?”

“It may be a good day….no, no….it might be a good day to buy an ice cream”

“Forget this…it’s too stressful visiting the beach. We’re driving home!”

In the business world however, words matter. Whereas in everyday conversation we could interchangeably describe something as being either complicated or complex, in the business world there are differentiating meanings behind both terms. These terms vary so much so that by inadvertently handling a complex problem as if it were complicated can cost the business dearly. By learning how to identify a problem as being either complex or complicated and subsequently knowing how to approach resolving the issue is invaluable to leaders.

What is the difference between Complex and Complicated?

If you’ve previously been acquainted with the Cynefin Framework, using the terms complex and complicated within the business environment will be familiar. Cynefin sees these terms accompanied by three other words to help businesses categorise a domain as being:

• Complex
• Complicated
• Chaotic
• Obvious / Simple
• Disorder

For now, let’s better understand what a complicated problem is.

Complicated Problems

For a problem to be defined as complicated, despite being challenging, it can be resolved with structured, well thought out logic using systems and process. Once the steps to overcome the problem have been designed, implemented and proven to work, they can be replicated to resolve the same problem in a repeatable manner at a future date.

In 1908 Henry Ford introduced the world to the first reasonably priced, reliable, and efficient automobile in the form of the Model T. The process of creating an automobile however was still relatively slow and error-prone. Ford therefore analysed the complicated process involved in manufacturing the vehicle, defined the clear steps undertaken during its creation and applied the learnings to a moving assembly line. By 1913, Ford’s mass production line of Model T’s saw unprecedented productivity and became a historic exemplar of how to overcome complicated problems.

Other examples of complicated problems include:

• Implementing a new software solution into a business
• Building a skyscraper
• Sending a rocket to the moon
• Solving a Rubik’s Cube

Complex Problems

A complex problem can often be seen as flying in the face of logic and reason. It’s awry with unknowns and interrelated factors that lead to a lack of control and unpredictability. Whilst a complicated problem could be seen as linear, complex problems are multi-dimensional.

In keeping with the car analogy, whilst the manufacturing of an automobile is complicated, the concept of traffic is complex. Traffic is composed of countless vehicles, each being of different make and model, controlled by a living, breathing person that has their own free-will and varying degrees of competency. If I were to ask the question of, “How long will it take for 500 cars to come off the production line during peak-time?”, you’d be able to answer with a high-level of certainty. Due to the complex nature of traffic however, the question of, “How long will it take 500 cars to pass a given point during peak-time?”, would be received with uncertainty and responded to with additional questions.

This is one of many. Complex problems are in abundance. A few additional examples of which are:

• Planning the return of students to full-time education post COVID-19 lockdown
• Improving the productivity of a software delivery team
• Homelessness
• Climate change

Looking at these examples, I’m sure you’re as equally bewildered as I am as to how you would solve these problems with 100% certainty of their outcome.

How should I approach each type of problem?

Complicated and complex problems require different mindsets and considerably different management techniques to overcome them. Failure to correctly clasify the problem can result in unachievable results, disappointed stakeholders and wasted efforts.

Complicated problems, due to their linear nature, can be comprehended and solved by the human mind. The use of subject matter experts and the execution of formal process to step through the problem will see it through to a finite outcome.

Tips for working through a complicated problem:

• Define the desired outcome — complicated problems have tangible outcomes. Unable to define the outcome in a unambigious, coherent way? You could be facing a complex problem.
• Utilise subject matter experts — complicated problems are an accumulation of many, smaller logical puzzles. They can be navigated by people that know how to traverse these familiar grounds. Need to put an engine back together? Bring in the engineer. Building a skyscraper? Let’s bring an architect and builder into the conversation.
• Stick to the plan— complicated problems are solved by working through them one step at a time. Yes, you could opt to try and bypass the plan and do your own thing, but it’s likely your going to be taking an expensive detour.

When confronting a complex problem, the initial step is to get into the mindset that it is less a matter of solving the issue, but actually managing it. Set that expectation not only within your own mind but within the minds of your stakeholders, superiors and team members. Without labeling the problem as a “complex problem”, people may be looking for a finite solution, as if it were a complicated problem. The result of this — stakeholders expecting concrete answers by a deadline, superiors undervaluing your efforts and team members questioning your ability to lead.

Managing a complex problem requires an observe-act-observe approach. This means pausing to understand what’s happening, analysing what’s observed, deciding on a new course of action, and implementing the revised plan. You are aiming for iterative improvement rather than achieving resolution with a silver-bullet.

Tips for working through a complex problem:

• Label the problem — Ensure people are aware that the problem set before them is of a complex nature as opposed to a complicated one. Outline that results are to be measured as incremental progress.
• Scaffold with metrics — To know whether or not any attempts to manage the complexity have had a positive, negative or neutral impact, the surface area of the problem is to be monitored with metrics.
• Pivot or persevere — As changes are implemented and the resultant metrics analysed, decide whether or not the cause/effect should be met with the plan to pivot or persevere. To ensure you have certainty in which variable has impacted a given metric, keep the number of variances to a minimum at a given point in time.

Quite often, using the wrong word goes unnoticed or is received with mutual laughter and indifference. When leading within business however, words matter and define how you and your cohorts comprehend what is happening around you. Next time you are faced with a problem, take a moment to consider; am I handling complication or complexity?