College Basketball and NHL Bets for 2/17

Summary

The article provides an analysis of betting outcomes for college basketball and NHL games on February 17, 2021, along with predictions for upcoming games.

Abstract

The author reflects on the previous day's betting performance, which resulted in a 3–2 record, discussing successful bets on college basketball unders, an NBA game, and an NHL over, as well as unsuccessful bets due to unexpected game tempos and a heavy favorite's loss. The article then offers betting advice for the night's games, suggesting under bets in college basketball based on team efficiency and defensive performance, and an NHL moneyline bet on the Carolina Hurricanes, who have shown strong offensive capabilities. The author emphasizes the importance of fading the public and considering the impact of COVID-19 on team performance. Betting lines are sourced from Draftkings, with a reminder to compare lines with other bookmakers for better value.

Opinions

The author believes in the predictive power of team momentum and historical trends, such as betting on the under when a team has a recent history of unders.
There is a preference for betting against public opinion when it aligns with analytical insights, particularly in choosing to bet the under in certain games.
The author expresses caution when laying heavy favorites on the moneyline, acknowledging the risk of significant losses when these favorites do not win.
The article suggests that team-specific factors, like shooting efficiency and defensive capabilities, are important considerations when making betting decisions.
The author advises bettors to shop around for the best lines to maximize potential profits, indicating the value in comparing odds across different sportsbooks.

What Went Right?

In college basketball we took the under in the matchup between East Tennessee St vs Chattanooga. East Tennessee State had gone under in the previous 5 games and we rode that momentum for another win. Our sole NBA bet for Monday was the Chicago Bulls +5.5 against the Indiana Pacers. The Bulls blew a massive lead in the 4th quarter and went into overtime. Thankfully the Bulls won outright and we hit our bet. In the NHL we bet the over between Columbus and Carolina. The Carolina Hurricanes have been going over in 6 of their previous 7 games and did so again for us on Monday.

What Went Wrong?

I was counting on the slow tempo of the Virginia Cavaliers to help the game go under against Florida State. Unfortunately the fast tempo of the Seminoles made it a high scoring game. We also took the Tampa Bay Lightning at -162 against the Florida Panthers. I don’t often like to lay over -150 on the moneyline and this is the reason why. The Lightning are a great team but they’re going to lose on occasion and when they do, and they’re a heavy favorite, it costs us a hefty price.

Tonight’s College Basketball Bets

Most casual bettors prefer to bet the over when placing a bet. It’s a lot more fun to root for action and you can have a guaranteed win earlier in the night. You’ll notice through the season that I’ll look for reasons to fade the public and bet the under when it makes sense to do so. Tonight we’ll see the Louisville Cardinals return after a 2 week hiatus to take on the Syracuse Orange. Louisville is a solid team but they also have not played their last 3 games due to Covid. I can see the time away hampering them a bit with their shooting. Meanwhile Syracuse averages over 15 takeaways per game. I’m not willing to bet a side here but I do like the total falling under.

Another under play that I like tonight is between Utah St and Boise St. Utah St ranks 86th in offensive efficiency but they are the highest ranked in defensive efficiency in the Mountain West conference. The Utah State Aggies have allowed 62 or fewer points in 10 of their 13 conference games. The Boise State Broncos have averaged 68 points in their last 4 games. I’ll take the under in this game.

Tonight’s NHL Bets

On Monday we went 1–1 with our NHL bets but fell behind on units due to losing with a heavy favorite. Tonight we’ll go back to the well in betting against the Florida Panthers but at a smaller price. The Carolina Hurricanes are hosting the Panthers tonight and have been very impressive lately. We won our over bet on Monday because we had faith in the offense of the Carolina Hurricanes. Although the Panthers are coming off of an impressive win against the Lightning I like my chances taking the Hurricanes to win here.

The Kris Bets This…

NCAAM (10–7) (58.82%) (+2.3 units)

Syracuse/Louisville under 141 Utah St./Boise St. under 138.5

NHL (1–1) (50%) (-.62 units)

Carolina -148

That’s all for today. The lines have been taken from Draftkings. Please compare lines with Fanduel and anywhere else you have the opportunity to do so. Every little bit counts. I’ll be back later this week with some more bets. Good luck everyone!

Originally published at https://thekrisbets.com on February 17, 2021.