China’s Military Aid to Russia in Ukraine War: Enough Ingredient to Shake the Balance of Power
Commentary
Munich Security Conference 2023 and a Sour Dating
At the outset of the Munich Security Conference of 2023, there had been hope that the ongoing tension between China and the United States over the spy balloon saga would be eased.
However, ongoing events has been forecasting mounting tension between two countries. Albeit, the US Secretary of State and the Chineses senior foreign affairs official met at the Munich Security Conference, but the outcome is quite escalating in nature! Both countries’ officials met on the margins of the conference and the United States made it clear that it has no doubt the balloon that they shot over the coast, was indeed engaged in active surveillance.
No doubt, the meeting between the two countries’ officials was quite intense! At this stage, it is apparent that the dialogue between two countries is still confrontational in nature. Nevertheless, in international politics and diplomacy, the chance of normal dialogue between China and the United States is still bright.
China may mull for lethal military assistance
Since after the Ukraine invasion in 2022, China has been inching itself closer to Russia, and it has been doing it implicitly. It also provided diplomatic support in favor of Russia. The Chinese companies provide imagery and commercial support to Russia’s militia combating in the eastern part of Ukraine. Though there is no existence of specific evidence, many military officials of the United States share their views that China supplied non-lethal military assistance to Russia for the Spring 2023 offensive.
The US Secretary of State also shares the same view with a news outlet (CBS). The Secretary of State also shares that China may provide lethal support.
During the Munich Security Conference when the Secretary of State met the Chinese top diplomats, he shared his concern about how the Chinese companies have been providing non-lethal support to Russia for the Ukraine invasion. In all Chinese companies, China has enormous influence and there is no doubt, all have been happening with implied consent from Chinese top officials.
Remarks: Fanning Flames or Blanketing Confrontations?
The spy balloon incident and indication of Chinese military assistance for Spring offensive have stripped off the neutral face of China regarding Ukraine war. Definitely, when China has been stepping closer to assist military support to Russia in Ukraine Spring offensive, it cannot at the same time claim a neutral and peace loving image!
In preceding years, Russia’s purchase of Chinese oil as well as gas increased at geometric rate. Last year, just before the outset of the Ukraine invasion, Russia and China signed ‘No Limits Partnership’.
China’s reaction in preceding months indicates that the country has been trying to involve with the Ukraine invasion in all the possible ways. On the eve of first year anniversary of the Ukraine invasion, China has been planning to share a draft peace outline.
Chinese Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi will share it on Friday (February 24, 2023). This expression of peace plan would at least make clear about the depth and nature of China’s strategic relationship with Russia and how the Western Sanction on Russia and the Ukraine invasion impact the China-Russia relation.
The following weeks of February would be quite critical. As we move closer to February 24, we would get to know what China is mulling about the Russian spring offensive in Ukraine and how it visualizes peace accord between Ukraine and Russia.