Summary

China is closely monitoring the 2020 US elections, anticipating a potential opportunity to assert its influence and interests, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, amidst the political turmoil and potential instability in the United States.

Abstract

As the United States grapples with the 2020 presidential elections, China is attentively observing the unfolding events, poised to exploit the political upheaval that may follow. The likelihood of Joe Biden's victory and the subsequent internal division within the US could provide China with an opening to solidify its economic resilience and reduce its dependency on US technology. The Eurasia Group suggests that a Biden presidency might lead to a more predictable US-China relationship, potentially diminishing the risk of conflict over Taiwan. However, the current polarization in the US could result in political gridlock, impairing the country's ability to respond swiftly to aggressive actions by China, such as a potential invasion of Taiwan. The US's internal focus on restoring political stability may inadvertently create a window of opportunity for China to act without significant resistance from the US military, which is currently a deterrent against Chinese aggression in the region. The article also touches on the strategic importance of Okinawa and the potential consequences for regional stability if the US were to reduce its military presence in Asia. The author, who resides in Okinawa, emphasizes the importance of the US maintaining its international responsibilities and calls for unity among Americans to ensure global peace and prosperity.

Opinions

The author believes that China views the political chaos in the US as an advantageous moment to strengthen its global economic position and potentially act against Taiwan without significant US opposition.
The Eurasia Group's memo indicates that a Biden win could lead to more stability and predictability in US-China relations, which China might use to its advantage.
The deepening divide between Republicans and Democrats is seen as a factor that could paralyze the US politically, slowing down decision-making processes and hindering the US's ability to counteract Chinese initiatives.
The US's military presence in Guam and Okinawa is considered crucial in deterring Chinese military actions against Taiwan, but the current political climate in the US could distract from this role.
The author expresses concern that the US's internal focus might signal weakness to other nations, potentially encouraging them to pursue their own agendas and destabilize the global political climate.
The author, living in Okinawa, is apprehensive about the prospect of reduced US military presence on the island, which could embolden China and Russia to challenge the status quo in the region.
The author urges Republicans to accept the election results gracefully and work with the incoming administration to prioritize peace and stability both domestically and internationally.

China Is Keeping A Close Watch On The 2020 US Elections

The sleeping dragon is waiting for his moment to strike

As the 2020 presidential elections near their end, all eyes are on the US. This includes the eyes of the eastern dragon, who wants to use this chaos to his advantage.

Especially if Biden wins, which by now seems almost certain, China can use this political change and the following turmoil to establish and strengthen its own position in the global economy and expand its interests.

“If Biden wins the election, this will bring stability and predictability, which authorities will use to try to reduce reliance on U.S. technology and build China’s economic resilience. It also lowers the tail risks of conflict over flashpoints such as Taiwan,” the memo from the Eurasia group states.

The current political climate in the US is dividing the people. Regardless of who wins, it will be a close call and drive a deep wedge between Republicans and Democrats across the United States. This will inevitably cause political gridlock and slow down the decision-making process that could counter any Chinese efforts.

In other words, if China decides to start an invasion of Taiwan, the US may not have the strength or capability to intervene, leaving the Taiwanese people to their own fate.

Trump’s attempts to undermine the election and calling it “rigged” undermines the values of modern democracy. That’s a fact the Communist Party of China welcomes as proof that democracy does not work.

The US is an important element for global stability

China’s military has long been eyeballing its Taiwanese neighbor. Their ideal scenario would involve Chinese troops forcefully occupying the island in a swift attack to annex it into their nation.

But doing so right now would cause a great political backlash. And the US military, stationed in Guam and Okinawa, would be able to intervene with a coalition force to ensure Taiwan’s independence.

Now that the US elections rip apart the nation, they will be more focused on re-establishing political stability within their own borders. That’s a chance for China to act unhindered by the eagle.

Just a month ago, the US has signed an arms deal with Taiwan, providing around $1.8 billion worth of defense systems to hold back a potential invasion. China didn’t like this deal at all and spoke of rising tensions.

But with the political change and the likely quarrels between Republicans and Democrats in the White House and the senate, taking action against any hostilities may happen too slow or too late.

Possible events in Asia if the US would ‘disappear’

Taiwan is not the only country being peeked at by its bigger neighbors. Okinawa, former Island of the Ryukyu kingdom and since the 17th century a part of Japan, is an important location of military control in the east-Asia region.

Since the ending of World War II, Okinawa is home to more than 40,000 US soldiers and sailors, who use the island as one of the biggest FOBs (Forward Operating Base) in the region. If for example, North Korea would start a war, it is this island together with Guam, which will launch the spearhead for airforce operations.

China always had an interest in taking control of Okinawa. And Russia too dislikes the US presence on the island. Blind to the fact that this ensures Okinawa’s freedom, a small group of Okinawans still insist that the US bases on the island will be shut down and troops leaving. They keep protesting in front of the bases around the island. Most of them are elderly.

As someone living on this island, I really hope that this will never happen.

The US carries a lot of responsibility

While focusing on the political ongoings within their own country, I hope their international and peacekeeping responsibilities don’t suffer.

If the US shows weakness now, this can signal to other countries an open window to push their own agendas and destabilize the political climate.

I urge Republicans to admit defeat openly and honestly. Rather than trying to hinder any presidential decisions by calling in Vetos and opposition, I hope the people can come to an understanding and work together towards a better future.

It’s not only the US that depends on their stability. The mission of a country like the US should be peace first and foremost. Bring peace to your own people. Bring peace to the world. And help to create prosperity for all.