China Is Just Looking For An Excuse To Start A War

Summary

The article discusses China's aggressive posturing, particularly in response to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, as a strategy to find an excuse for potential military action while avoiding the economic and political isolation faced by Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.

Abstract

The author of the article likens China's recent behavior to that of a belligerent individual at a bar, looking to provoke a fight without initiating it. China's sensitivity to perceived slights from Taiwan and the U.S. is seen as a tactic to avoid the consequences of being the aggressor, as evidenced by the international response to Russia's actions in Ukraine. The visit of U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan has escalated tensions, with China threatening military exercises using live ammunition near Taiwan's coasts. The author, who has personal connections to Taiwan, advocates for maintaining the status quo, recognizing China's refusal to compromise on the issue of Taiwan's independence. The article suggests that China's President Xi Jinping is driven by a desire to restore China to its historical status as a global superpower and to avoid appearing weak, which is reflected in his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and his pursuit of a third term. The narrative pushed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is one of increasing nationalism and distrust of the West, particularly the U.S., fueled by recent geopolitical events. The author expresses concern that this rhetoric is leading China towards conflict rather than cooperation with the West, which would be detrimental to global peace and prosperity.

Opinions

The author believes China is actively seeking a pretext to justify military action, similar to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
China's aggressive reactions to events like Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan are seen as calculated moves to provoke without being the first to strike.
The author has a personal stake in the situation due to family living in Taiwan but claims a relatively neutral view on Taiwan's independence.
Xi Jinping is portrayed as a leader obsessed with his legacy, seeking to surpass Mao's influence and restore China's historical dominance.
The CCP's propaganda is accused of stoking nationalism and an "us or them" mentality, which could lead to conflict with the West.
The author argues that the best course of action is to maintain the current status quo regarding Taiwan's sovereignty to prevent a catastrophic armed conflict.
The article criticizes the CCP's approach to the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that Xi Jinping's pride prevents him from admitting mistakes.
The author calls for cooperation between China and the U.S. based on mutual understanding to benefit the global community.

The rest of the world should not take the bait

You know when you’re at a bar and some rowdy drunk starts going out of his way to bump everyone because he’s insecure and has something to prove? The drunk fool is just hoping that someone, anyone will get angry and push or hit him first giving him all the excuse he needs to start a brawl.

Well that’s what China’s posturing feels like lately.

China is just looking for an excuse. It doesn’t want to hit first because it’s seen how a country that hits first (Russia) gets quickly frozen out economically and politically. So instead it overreacts to every perceived or imagined slight that comes its way from both the thing it desires most (Taiwan) and its rival for strongest country in the world (the U.S.).

The latest thing to tick off China is of course Nancy Pelosi’s (the Speaker of the House of Representatives) visit to Taiwan. China is super mad about this and has threatened to conduct live ammunition military exercises off of both the east and west costs of Taiwan. This is basically the country equivalent of when someone fires a machine gun at the ground around your feet — you don’t get hit, but it’s incredibly scary as the bullets ricochet off the ground around your toes.

Let me first say that I can’t be completely objective about this — my dad lives in Taiwan and I have other family and friends there as well. That said, having grown up most of my life in the U.S. (besides spending four years in Taiwan), I have a relatively neutral view on Taiwan independence. I recognize that Beijing absolutely will not budge on this issue (for fear of being seen as impotent). Which means the best path forward is probably a peaceful continuation of the current status quo where Taiwan pretends it’s independent and China pretends they’re one country and both sides agree to look the other way because they realize (like Putin is finding out in real time) that armed conflict would be horrific.

But I worry that Xi Jinping is drunk on delusions of grandeur — that he believes he’s the second coming of Mao. That’s why he’s seeking an unprecedented third term (and after that will likely attempt to cement himself as leader for life). He also wants to be the one to preside over China’s rise back to number one super power status (a status it once held more than a thousand years ago). That’s why he’s super sensitive about showing what he perceives to be weakness or admitting fault. It’s why he would rather starve his own people in inhumane lockdowns rather than admit that Omicron is not the mortal threat that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) depicted it as. Doing so would imply that the West was right (even if by lucky accident) and that his inability to change his mind when the facts changed was wrong (it was).

The rumblings and anecdotes I hear from both people in China as well as people who follow Chinese politics closely portray a state driven push to encourage nationalism and vilify the West. There’s very much an “us or them” perspective being hawked by the CCP that’s making Chinese citizens believe that in order to continue rising as a nation, China must go through the West (America especially) rather than cooperate with it.

It’s been a relatively easy sell thanks to the unfortunately foreign policy of the Trump years (e.g. trade war), the U.S. clamping down on Chinese companies like Huawei, both countries blaming each other for COVID, and Taiwan tensions. And to an extant it’s true. China is a rapidly rising superpower and America is the world’s current number one. And the two countries are far apart from each other on key issues like geopolitics, governance, free speech, economics, and human rights. So misunderstandings, overreactions, and frictions are inevitable.

But by encouraging fear, distrust of foreign things, and insularity among China’s citizens, I fear that Xi and the CCP are girding China for conflict. Cooperation between the two strongest countries in the world based on open mindedness and mutual understanding would be incredible for the entire world. Conflict resulting from pride, ignorance, and a refusal to try to see eye to eye would be terrible.