Census Meddling Ended With More Uncounted Minorities

Trump officials sought to diminish fast-growing U.S. diversity

At a time when the U.S. white population is shrinking and minorities are growing faster than expected, the 2020 Census overcounted whites and undercounted most minorities. The count excludes one in every 20 of the fast-growing Hispanic population, for example.

A March 10 U.S. Census Bureau report, a followup on the count, reinforces earlier fears that the Trump administration sought to diminish the numbers — and therefore, the clout — of racial minorities.

At the least, the undercounting is a byproduct of that administration’s focus on Republican voters, at the expense of getting an accurate view of a nation that no longer fits Norman Rockwell's depictions. Challenged by the pandemic, the bureau also was burdened by partisan demands.

In the end, whites were overcounted by 1.6 percent — almost double the rate of 2010 overcount. Yet an earlier Census Bureau analysis shows that even though people who identify as “white alone” still account for 57.8 percent of the population, they declined in 2020 for the first time in history.

The group makes up fewer than half of those under age 18, yet three-quarters of those over 65. Multiracial people had the biggest increase, from 2.9 percent of the population in 2010 to 10.2 percent now.

Undercounts of minorities — excluding the 2.6 percent overcount of Asians — is nothing new. However, 2020 undercounts were higher than in 2010:

• Hispanics — 5 percent, compared to 1.5 percent.
• Blacks — 3.3 percent, compared to 2 percent.
• Native Americans on reservations — 5.6 percent, compared to 4.9 percent
• Other races — 4.3 percent, compared to 1.6 percent

The numbers matter. They help determine congressional redistricting and how $1.5 trillion in federal funding is distributed to communities for health care, food aid, education, and economic development.

“Every undercounted household and individual in our communities means lost funding and resources that are desperately needed to address the significant disparities we face,” said Fawn Sharp, president of the National Congress of American Indians.

“We’ve talked about voter suppression. Now we see population suppression,” Marc Morial, president, and CEO of the National Urban League told reporters. His organization is considering a lawsuit on the undercount.

Arturo Vargas, CEO of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund, said the Trump administration “left the bureau mired in scandal and setbacks, undermining its mission to count our population fairly and accurately.”

The frustration is justified.

President Donald Trump pushed to add a citizenship question to the survey, causing the bureau to spend millions in ads to combat it after the controversial idea was dropped.

He then wanted to subtract any noncitizens from the count, although the law requires that each person in the country be counted. That idea was rejected by President Joe Biden when he took office.

The administration also slashed a month from data-collection time, even though the bureau was integrating a first-time online survey with the in-person count. And the bureau was ordered to gather all federal and state records on noncitizens, with the intention of excluding even legal immigrants from redistricting maps.

A key strategist behind this effort also proposed excluding from the count those under age 18 to make it “advantageous to Republicans and Non-Hispanic Whites.”

Census Bureau Director Robert Santos, a Biden appointee who in 2020 accused the Trump administration of sabotaging the census, said the count was OK to use for current redistricting. The bureau is looking for ways, he said, to improve outreach to minority communities for a more accurate image of the country’s diversity.

The bureau should expect considerable scrutiny as it releases more detailed reports on the 2020 Census, as well as on plans for 2030.

Said Vargas of the Hispanic Elected Officials: “If our country can find a way to pull through a once-in-a-century global pandemic, we can find a way to count all of our residents fairly and accurately.”