Can Trump Survive June? President Pence to celebrate Fourth of July

It’s been described as the loudest dog-whistle ever heard in America. Don Trump is heading to Tulsa OK for the first of a new round of campaign rallies.

In Tulsa, scene of America’s worst racial atrocity nearly a century ago, to be held on “Juneteenth”, also known as “Black Independence Day” celebrating the end of slavery.

This, at a time when racial tensions are at a high, the country is suffering under a pandemic, and Don Trump is watching his polls fall and his allies leave, is bound to be an iconic moment in American history.

Don Trump predictably doubles down when he’s in trouble, and after a week when he has attracted savage criticism for his ham-fisted handling of the George Floyd protests, he is keen to be surrounded by an adoring crowd hanging on every word of a rambling monologue while media, police, and protestors ensure that this match tossed into a gas tank will be front-page news around the world.

A return to normality for Don Trump, but these are not normal times, no matter how much spin his press secretary applies.

Holding a mass rally during a pandemic is a bone-headed move. Thousands of people screaming themselves hoarse; a large percentage without masks, as will be their hero himself. Perfect conditions for germs to spread. A week later, there will be a spike in Covid-19 cases, and another week on, a spike in deaths.

The virus is live in Oklahoma — not to mention neighbouring states, and Texas is a hotspot — and the virus doesn’t read media releases or take sides. It just does what it does.

At a time of racial tension, a rally in Tulsa on Juneteenth is madness. This event is bound to attract massive protests, and Trump is bound to have heavy police and military support in this heavily Republican state. It goes without saying that the chance of violence and rioting, savage police brutality, arson and looting is high.

With a week’s warning, the media will be there in force, keen to capture the mayhem of Trump holding a rally, and the inevitable protests.

Yes, but…

Trump’s handling of the twin crises of pandemic and police violence against blacks has been typically incompetent. America under Trump’s leadership has been hit harder than any other nation on the planet. You’d think that the nation with more resources in every way to fight off a disease would do better than most, but no.

The riots following the death of George Floyd have been widespread and devastating. People have died, destruction has been immense, and Trump has seemed to revel in it, calling for even more police enforcement and threatening to use the military against American citizens.

Trump attracts criticism, but this time, the critics are getting closer to home. His lies and stunts are backfiring. A 75-year-old man in Buffalo NY attempted to return an item of police equipment, was knocked down, and then left bleeding on the road. Trump tried to push the lie that he was interfering in police operations and had deliberately stumbled. Presumably, the blood flowing out of his ear after his skull hit the concrete was faked. Right.

A bizarre photo op outside a boarded-up Washington church after police violently cleared peaceful protestors so that Trump could hold a Bible aloft ramped up the criticism, this time from church leaders, media who had been assaulted by the police, and widespread ridicule from those who pointed out that Trump rarely attends church, famously reads no books, and has virtually zero knowledge of the Christianity he supposedly holds dear.

Trump’s approval ratings are tanking, and he looks to be on track to lose the November election, taking a swag of Republican leaders with him. It is entirely possible that the GOP will lose the White House and both houses of Congress.

It will happen suddenly

If the writing is on the wall — and it is difficult to see how any but the loyalest of the red-cap wearing brigade can still vote for him after four years of chaos — then Trump’s appetite for fighting an election he is certain to lose will disappear. He doesn’t want to be fired, and there’s no other way to spin an election defeat.

Short of having Russia help out again, I suppose. Will that work again? It didn’t in 2018, when the House swung to the Democrats. Most likely the social media platforms will crack down on interference, blocking the usual suspects.

There would have to be disenfranchisement and voter fraud on a grand scale for Trump to win, based on the current figures. Remember, in 2016 Trump was pushing himself as a breath of fresh air and voters were inclined to give him a bit of a chance. He still lost the popular vote, but he scraped home via the Electoral College.

This time around, he’s a known quantity, and his performance has been poor on just about any measure. So many of his promises — he was going to eliminate the National Debt, which has instead ballooned out — never happened or turned into squibs.

He was going to be too busy to play golf. Yeah, right.

Trump might be able to fool himself, but the State governors and congress members who are facing election in November are doubtlessly busy assessing their prospects. If Trump goes down, he’ll take a lot of them with him.

For the moment, they want to appear loyal, but the excuses that they haven’t seen his latest tweets, or they don’t have a position on specific idiocies are wearing thin.

With a few high-level Republicans openly endorsing Trump’s opponent Joe Biden, the cracks are beginning to appear. It’s going to be hard to reverse that swing with more disasters and more unrest.

My educated guess

The next week, culminating in the Tulsa rally, is not going to be a good one for Trump’s prospects. Covid-19 infections and deaths will rise as more people leave isolation. There will be more Republicans jumping ship. And the rally itself will generate a wave of media that is going to be uniformly bad for Trump except in those outlets that cater for the die-hard Trump loyalists.

If the Tulsa thing goes badly wrong, with riots, deaths, military intervention spurred on by inflammatory tweets from Trump himself, Trump is going to get phone calls from his biggest Republican supporters — Mitch McConnell is facing an unexpectedly tough election himself — telling him the time has come.

Maybe Trump can reach into hidden depths to deliver the messages of unity and stability the nation needs. But I wouldn’t bank on it. I think it is a near certainty that Trump is going to alienate more and more Americans as time goes by.

Undoubtedly he thrives on controversy and relishes nothing more than being the focus of attention as he blames everyone but himself for America’s problems, but that’s not a winning strategy.

It’s just a matter of time, and I’m guessing this next week will see more sand running out.

Britni

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