Can This Crypto 10x?
Let’s Speculate
I don’t like price predictions.
That said, let’s talk price…
BUT FIRST, a few things.
I’m a Bitcoiner at heart.
I bought Bitcoin in 2014, sold some, spent some, lost some in useless games or gambling, bought more, and now mine crypto in order to ultimately earn more BTC. That’s always the end goal — more Bitcoin.
I don’t like owning altcoins but, having been in the crypto space for long enough, I’ve held other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin.
Let’s talk about one crypto that I currently own — Ravencoin. Full disclosure that other than Bitcoin (as of writing), I also own Ethereum and Cardano.
What is Ravencoin?
Ravencoin is a fork of the Bitcoin code.
It was released between the end of 2017 and start of 2018. Its founders are Bruce Fenton, Tron Black, and Joel Weight.
Ravencoin is different from Bitcoin in that it has a modified issuance schedule, reduced block times, max supply of 21 billion, and different mining algorithm (KAWPOW). You can find out more about Ravencoin projects such as NFTs, wallets, and more here.
Ravencoin Halving
Like Bitcoin, Ravencoin has built-in halving events roughly every four years. Its first-ever halving should occur close to January 11, 2022.
The halving will reduce the block reward from 5,000 RVN to 2,500 RVN. That’s significant. As a miner myself, I’m maxing out the amount of RVN I’m able to mine now ahead of the upcoming halving.
Why I Own RVN
Ravencoin makes up less than 3% of my total cryptocurrency portfolio. But, it’s currently the only crypto that I’m mining.
Bitcoin is the majority of my portfolio, Ethereum is a large chunk simply due to my buying it in 2016, and Cardano is also a single-digit percentage like Ravencoin. I flipped 1/3 of my ADA to BTC when I first saw a 10x return on my initial ADA investment. The end goal for any altcoin I own or mine is to be a means to an end to acquire more Bitcoin.
I built a crypto mining rig and started mining Ethereum before switching over to Ravencoin in early 2021. Now, I’m mining 100% Ravencoin. I don’t particularly like the direction that Ethereum is headed with ETH 2.0, and I appreciate the ability to receive payouts from mining pools more frequently when mining Ravencoin instead.
RVN Mining Appeal
Ravencoin became a popular alternative to Ethereum for GPU miners over the last year. With Ethereum transitioning away from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, GPU miners have been looking elsewhere.
I don’t feel that Ravencoin can support a full transition of hash power from ETH to RVN in the long term, but I do believe it can provide some necessary optionality for GPU miners in the short term.
That’s the initial draw for Ravencoin — it’s a crypto mining alternative. Ravencoin utilizes a hashing algorithm that’s ASIC-resistant, discouraging large centralization of mining power. That means that GPU miners stand a good chance at at least being able to mine Ravencoin.
Price Prediction
Here we go…
As of writing, Ravencoin is trading close to $0.12/RVN. Ravencoin’s all-time high price is roughly $0.28. That hit in February 2021.
The cryptocurrency started 2021 near $0.01 and jumped nearly 30x within a two month period. It then bottomed out around $0.05 on the way back down before trading between that and $0.15 since then.
Can RVN 10x?
Ravencoin currently has a market cap close to $1 billion. A 10x in price would also push its market cap into the top 25 cryptocurrencies as of writing — a tall order. BUT, if Ravencoin moves that hard, we have to assume that the larger crypto markets are also moving.
Ravencoin’s potential, like most altcoins, is largely dependent on Bitcoin’s price and market cap. I like to say that as Bitcoin moves, so does the market.
Ravencoin can 10x, but I’m not counting on it doing that by the January 11 halving. I’m looking at a lower price point around the halving.
If the Bitcoin and overall cryptocurrency bull market continue into January, however, Ravencoin could break above $0.20 and test its all-time high.
This is not financial advice and is pure speculation based on the current crypto market and an assumption that the halving will impact the price of RVN similar to what we’ve seen happen with Bitcoin. It’s important to note, too that this is Ravencoin’s first-ever halving.
I don’t feel a 10x is possible until there’s broader adoption around the Ravencoin network (i.e., more projects built on RVN or more exchanges adopting RVN). A 10x could be further down the road, but that implies a $1 unit price point and $10 billion market cap, and I’m hesitant to think that can happen independent of any much larger crypto bull market.
My Strategy
I’ve been mining Ravencoin for most of 2021 with the intention of stacking as much as possible ahead of the January halving. I’m continuing to do just that in Q4 2021. I mine using nanopool, direct to a wallet where I would be able to convert RVN directly to BTC when needed.
If Ravencoin rises in price, I’ll also watch its price in terms of BTC and begin to convert portions of my RVN holdings to BTC at opportune times.
One thing is clear — I won’t be selling any RVN for USD. Any of my current or future crypto holdings will remain that — crypto holdings. I have no plans of selling any crypto for USD as of writing. That could always change, but I ultimately view Bitcoin as a savings account and am working to build that up as much as possible in the coming years.
Thanks for reading! I am not an investment or financial advisor. This is not financial advice. All opinions expressed are mine alone. If you want more content like this, sign up for my weekly email.
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